OPINION - Beyond the ballot box: Strategic foresight and the landscape of great power competition in Taiwan

By M. Nazmul Islam

-The author is the head of Türkiye, Asia, and Indo-Pacific Studies (TAIPS), Institute for International Relations and Strategic Research (ULİSA), and an Assistant Professor of Political Science and Public Administration at Ankara Yildirim Beyazıt University (AYBU).

ISTANBUL (AA) - The recent election held on Saturday serves as yet another significant benchmark for Taiwan, wherein the electorate chose former Vice President Lai Ching-te as their new president. Despite explicit warnings from the Beijing administration characterizing him as “a separatist and a troublemaker,” with concerns that he might impede the adherence to the one-China policy.

In this election, the successful candidate, Lai, secured victory with 40% of the total votes, surpassing his primary opponent, Hou Yu-ih from the Kuomintang political party, who garnered 33%, and the populist Taiwan People’s Party, which received 26% of the vote. The election landscape appears to mark one of the most fiercely contested in Taiwan’s history, characterized by close competition among political parties. Notably, leaders aligned with Beijing, namely Hou and Ko, faced defeat against a candidate perceived as more confrontational and less favored from China’s standpoint.

Another notable aspect is that Lai’s political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), has secured victory for three consecutive terms in the 30-year democratic history of Taiwan. Intriguingly, despite this, the opposition party, Kuomintang, obtained a larger number of parliamentary seats. According to TaiwanPlus News, crucial constituencies in Taiwan, such as Taipei, Taoyuan, Taichung, Keelung, Hsinchu city, Hsinchu county, Nantou, Taitung, Hualien, Kinmen, Lienchiang, and Lowland Indigenous areas, remained under the control of the Kuomintang.

Before the election, China characterized the electoral event as “a choice between war and peace,” particularly in light of the noticeable direct involvement of the US in Taiwan, which has contributed to redefining the Taiwan question within global political discourse. Contrarily, within Taiwan’s domestic discussions, notably among the younger electorate, apprehensions were primarily focused on economic issues such as unemployment, housing costs, and income inequality, which have emerged as central challenges in recent times.

- Great power rivalry and Taiwan

Strategically, both Taiwan and the American administration have adopted a measured and deliberate approach, particularly regarding the issue of Taiwan’s independence. It is evident that the majority of Taiwan’s 23 million inhabitants are more inclined to concentrate on their ongoing development rather than being mixed up in questions of war, independence, or integration with China. It is apparent that, barring threatening narratives or military maneuvers in proximity to Taiwan’s borders, China refrains from employing force in the region. China’s primary objective is to achieve reunification with Taiwan through peaceful means, given that its current propositions do not afford the luxury of resorting to military aggression.

It is imperative to recognize that China, being an export-driven global economic powerhouse, engaging in direct confrontation would entail severe impacts, jeopardizing significant projects spanning Asia to Africa, and Europe to Latin America. Particularly, it would pose a major political, economic, diplomatic, and security setback for China’s expansive Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) worldwide. Consequently, the priority for China lies in prioritizing negotiation over direct confrontation in resolving any potential conflict related to Taiwan.

However, over the past two decades, China’s focus on military modernization has been directed at developing capabilities that would enable it to forcefully annex Taiwan, encompassing ballistic missiles, advanced fighter jets, and the world’s largest navy. Nevertheless, opting for such a course of action would represent a pivotal decision in the trajectory of modern Chinese history. Recent discourses within China’s security and foreign policy circles suggest that this is viewed as a measure of last resort. While it is acknowledged that China stands as an emerging global power, the sustainability of its power projection necessitates a patient approach. Entangling in a confrontational scenario with Taiwan could signify the conclusion of the initial phase of China’s ascent as a new superpower in global politics. Even the historical insights from China’s five-thousand-year history demonstrate a consistent preference for the middle way, avoiding direct confrontations whenever possible.

China seeks to spread a straightforward narrative asserting that Taiwan is an integral part of China, summarized within the framework of the "One China" policy. However, this narrative becomes particularly stringent when China perceives external support for Taiwan, especially from the US. During election periods, it became evident that the Chinese Foreign Ministry and diplomats, utilizing both social and mainstream media channels, made concerted efforts to reinforce the narrative that Taiwan is an inseparable part of China. Moreover, they emphasized their firm stance against allowing any third party to intervene in what China deems as its internal affairs.

- Election results

Nevertheless, an unequivocal observation can be drawn from the election results: 60% of voters did not endorse Lai’s political party. This signifies that any future attempts by his political party to incite political opposition against China’s policies will necessitate navigating through democratic scrutiny within Taiwan. While it is certain that Lai’s political aim introduces a new dynamic, it raises pertinent questions about the sustainability of traditional parties in the Chinese political landscape. The emergence of a new party prompts consideration of its ability to address the challenges faced by the Taiwanese populace in the future.

Furthermore, the legitimacy acquired by Lai’s DPP in the recent election is intricately tied to the KMT’s position in Taiwan’s national politics. Within Taiwan’s domestic political landscape, the KMT faced consistent criticism throughout the campaign for its stance on China policy, with particular emphasis on its former leader, Ma Ying-jeou, who often became a focal point of attacks. Ma’s assertion to "trust Xi Jinping," while well-intentioned, was frequently used against him. However, regardless of the circumstances, as I mentioned earlier, Beijing is unlikely to resort to full-scale conflict with Taiwan. Instead, it possesses various alternatives, such as international isolation for Taiwan and exerting economic and diplomatic pressure, should it face any opposition from the current government under Lai’s leadership.

From the perspective of the United States, it is evident that they are contending with various priorities, encompassing but not limited to domestic concerns and crises in the Middle East, such as the recent and ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict and the escalating situation in Houthi-controlled Yemen, alongside the unending Russia-Ukraine war. Any potential conflicts involving Taiwan would add further strain on the US. While the US seeks to safeguard its interests in the Asia-Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions, aligning with major partners like India, Australia, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, recent and the last developments and discussions between President Joe Biden and Xi Jinping indicate a preference for a more stabilized regional environment. The US aims for mutually beneficial outcomes in competition with China, emphasizing a calming situation in the region, and refraining from explicit support for Taiwan’s independence, at least in the near future.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.