OPINION - EU Enlargement Vision 2030

By Prof. Dr. Irfan Kaya Ulger

- The author is a faculty member at Kocaeli University, Faculty of Political Sciences

ISTANBUL (AA) - The visit of EU Commissioner for Neighborhood and Enlargement Oliver Varhelyi to Türkiye on Sept. 6-7 brought the Türkiye-EU relations back into the spotlight.

Although the full membership negotiations between Türkiye and the EU, which started on Oct. 3, 2005, seem to be continuing legally, they are de facto at a standstill. When newspapers list the countries negotiating with the EU, they include Türkiye. However, full membership negotiations between Türkiye and the EU have stalled and it is not clear when they will resume.

European Council President Charles Michel said last week that the EU should be prepared for new members from 2030. When talking about enlargement, Michel has mentioned Ukraine and Moldova as well as the Western Balkans, but not Ankara. In fact, the EU-Türkiye relations have been progressing for some time outside the negotiating status. Türkiye's status as an EU candidate and negotiating country has been ignored. Türkiye reacts to this attitude by criticizing the EU's one-sided perspective.

The latest statement on this issue was made by Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan. Fidan has described Türkiye's exclusion as a lack of vision at a time when strategic concerns are at the forefront of EU enlargement. According to Fidan, it is imperative to revive the accession negotiations with Türkiye and to conduct relations with the perspective of full membership. During his visit to Ankara, Varhelyi implicitly and explicitly stated that Türkiye was moving away from the EU and demanded urgent reforms.

- Current issues between Türkiye, EU

The current outstanding issues between Türkiye and the EU are visa-free travel, updating the Customs Union, humanitarian aid to refugees and the dispute over maritime jurisdiction. Let us analyze these issues in brief. Visa exemption is an agreement that allows Turkish citizens to travel within the Schengen area for 90 days. The EU has set 72 criteria for Türkiye to meet in order to obtain visa-free travel. Türkiye has fulfilled 66 of these obligations, while the completion of the remaining ones has been delayed due to the coup attempt of July 15, 2016. Progress in this area has been hampered by the requirement to bring the definition of terrorism in the anti-terrorism law into line with European standards.

Other commitments include cooperation with Europol, implementation of the readmission agreement, mutual legal assistance and alignment with EU standards on corruption. The EU side considers that the entry into force of the visa exemption will be delayed. For this reason, it prefers the term "visa facilitation" instead of "visa exemption," meaning visa exemption for students and businessmen.

During Varhelyi's visit, Türkiye and the EU also reached an agreement on updating the Customs Union. It was decided to set up a working group to expand the scope of the Customs Union by including industrial goods, agricultural products and investments. An agreement was also signed by the EU to provide €781 million for social services for Syrian asylum seekers in Türkiye, and part of the aid pledged at the earthquake donor conference was released.

In his meeting with Varhelyi, Fidan also called on the EU to abandon its previous decisions on the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean disputes. In 2019 and 2020, the EU had supported the Greek and Greek Cypriot theses in the maritime jurisdiction dispute between Türkiye and Greece and the Greek Cypriot administration of Southern Cyprus. The fact is that where a state's maritime jurisdiction – its continental shelf, territorial sea and exclusive economic zone – begins and ends is a matter of international law. The settlement of disputes in this group does not fall within the remit of the EU, which is a supranational organization.

- EU Enlargement Vision 2030

The war that began on Feb. 24, 2022, with Russia's attack on Ukraine opened the door to a new era not only for NATO but also for the EU. For the first time in its history, the EU strongly supported military spending for war. A general consensus emerged among member states to increase defense spending. Sweden and Finland, two EU member states, applied to join NATO because of the Russian threat. Finland became a NATO member in April 2023, while Sweden's accession is likely to be delayed until the end of the year due to delays in fulfilling its commitments.

The war in Ukraine has also triggered a new wave of enlargement for the EU. In mid-2012, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia applied to join the EU. The EU did not reject any of the applicants. Ukraine and Moldova were declared candidates, while even Georgia, geographically a Transcaucasian country, was not excluded. On Sept. 8, High Representative Joseph Borrell also visited Tbilisi and declared that "the doors of the EU are open to Georgia". On the other hand, the EU leaders have often referred to the decision taken at the 2003 Thessaloniki Summit.

The EU announced that Western Balkan countries that fulfilled their obligations would be accepted as full members. Among the Western Balkan countries, Montenegro and Serbia have been negotiating full membership with the EU since 2012 and 2014 respectively. Negotiations between Albania and North Macedonia and the EU started in July 2022. It remains unclear when Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina will be declared candidates and when negotiations will start. However, EU Council President Michel has stated that the EU should be ready to accept new members from 2030.

- Türkiye's place in the EU enlargement

It remains unclear when full membership negotiations between Türkiye and the EU, which are practically deadlocked, will resume. Following the May 28 elections in Türkiye, Borrell has been asked by the Council of Europe to prepare a "strategic and far-sighted report on Türkiye.” The report is expected to be published in October. But what was reaffirmed during Varhelyi's visit is this: Reviving full membership negotiations with Türkiye is not a priority for the EU.

According to the EU, Türkiye needs to take further steps in the areas of democracy, rule of law and human rights in order to resume negotiations. The EU officials criticize the measures taken after the July 15, 2016 coup attempt and also complain that Türkiye is not complying with the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights. The EU does not take into account the concern that “the measures taken against the terrorists rebelling against the state were legal and legitimate and that the state of emergency was indeed based on a legal basis.”

All these developments show that the EU's biased and discriminatory perspective toward Türkiye continues. In fact, the EU's discriminatory approach is also responsible for Türkiye's failure to make the expected progress in the full membership negotiations. The Negotiating Framework Document is based on the unanimity rule for each of the chapters. However, this rule was not applied to the countries that joined the EU in 2004.

Under the current circumstances, if the EU wants to become a global actor, it should get rid of its prejudices and not discriminate against Türkiye. Türkiye is the country with the greatest potential to contribute to the EU's strategic vision and is not just comprised of Anatolia. The Ottoman hinterland includes the Balkans, the Middle East and the northern parts of Africa. As such, the country has cultural influence in these regions. Türkiye is also part of the Turkic world and a member of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

It would therefore be a lack of vision for the EU, which is strategically planning to enlarge from 2030, not to take Türkiye into account. Moreover, Türkiye's accession would strengthen the EU's energy security and military cooperation and trigger new growth and development with a multiplier effect on the economy. At this point, the scope and limits of the EU's strategic vision are important.

For Türkiye, accession to the EU is no longer of vital importance. But the same idea cannot be said for the EU. If the EU wants to become a global actor, it should take into account Türkiye's economic, military and geopolitical potential. Only its accession will allow the EU to avoid becoming an “economic giant and political dwarf.” It will be very difficult for the EU to maintain and develop its current level of integration without Türkiye's participation.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.