OPINION- Has Israel reached its limits in Lebanon?

By Ferhat Tutkal

- The author is a journalist working for TRT News' foreign desk and a Ph.D. student in Social Sciences University of Ankara (ASBÜ) in Middle East Studies.

ISTANBUL (AA) - The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which began in October 2023, entered a new phase on Sept. 17, 2024. The process started with Israel's detonation of thousands of electronic devices used by Hezbollah and continued with the assassination of many of the movement's top leaders, including its secretary-general. Thinking that Hezbollah would be dissolved, Israel launched a ground operation on Lebanese territory on Oct. 1. However, it did not turn out as expected.

Far from being successful in the land operation, Israel suffered serious losses in Lebanon. Combined with its war exhaustion starting from the last year, the latest casualties of Israel led it to consider withdrawing from Lebanon.

- Israel's lack of progress on ground

Israel had the upper hand against Hezbollah with the surprise attacks; assassinations of top commanders, and air domination starting in mid-September. However, Israel's accomplishments misled it to enter Lebanon on the ground. Expecting a dissolution in Hezbollah fronts after eliminating the organization's leadership, Israel faced strong resistance on the field.

While Israel continues its ground offensive in southern Lebanon, its casualties are significantly increasing. Israeli Army Radio referred to last month as "black October" because of high casualties. [1] Israel's main objective was to secure its borders by pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River, but this goal is still a long way off. The deepest point at which Israeli forces have been able to advance is the outskirts of the town of Khiam, about 6 kilometers from the border.

Hezbollah also continued to hit Israel with missiles and drones during the invasion. The ongoing Hezbollah attacks on Israeli territory have undermined one of Tel Aviv's major pretexts for the occupation. Israel had claimed that the ground operation was needed for displaced people to return to their homes on Israel's northern border. With the attacks of Hezbollah, far from the return of those in the north, the war has moved much further inland. To cover up the questionable ground operation, Israel increased the number of massive daily airstrikes on towns and cities.

- Israel's war exhaustion

Amid the burdens of the war, Israel prepares to end its ground offensive on Lebanon. [2] Israel has been struggling with military problems since Oct. 7, 2023. Tel Aviv doesn't deal only with international pressure but also faces political turmoil at home. The economic burden of the war is another trouble Israel bears.

After Israel's ground operation in Lebanon, international pressure on Israel has increased significantly. Many Western countries, which did not react sufficiently to the massacre in Gaza, put pressure on Israel for its escalatory behavior in Lebanon. For instance, France called for an arms sales ban on Israel to avoid regional escalation. [3] Israel's attacks on the peacekeeping force, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), has also put it in a difficult position internationally. [4]

Israel, which suffers military losses every day in Gaza and southern Lebanon, carries out its operations also at a heavy cost. Since the outbreak of the war, Israel has lost more than 890 soldiers, and 11,000 Israeli soldiers have been wounded, according to Yair Lapid, Israeli opposition leader. [5] Additionally, hundreds of military vehicles have been destroyed or damaged in the attacks.

In addition to military losses and a tense political environment, one of the most difficult challenges for the Netanyahu government is the state of the economy. Israel's military expenditures are increasing while the economic growth rate is slowing down. [6] The cost of the war to Israel is more than 67 billion dollars, even without including Israel's ground offensive in Lebanon. [7]

The Netanyahu government is in a difficult situation in terms of domestic politics. It has been cornered with demands to resolve the hostage crisis and reach a cease-fire. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure not only for the failure of Oct. 7 but also for not paying enough attention to the Israeli hostages and deliberately undermining the cease-fire for his political gain.

[1] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/80-israelis-including-64-soldiers-police-killed-in-october-amid-ongoing-conflict/3378927

[2] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israel-nearing-end-of-intense-phase-of-ground-offensive-in-southern-lebanon-military-sources-say/3382157

[3] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/6/frances-macron-calls-for-arms-sales-ban-on-israel-as-gaza-war-nears-a-year

[4] https://www.politico.eu/article/40-countries-condemn-israel-attacks-un-peacekeepers-lebanon/

[5] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/israeli-opposition-leader-warns-army-casualties-to-increase-under-netanyahu-government/3377945

[6] https://theconversation.com/israel-11-months-of-war-have-battered-the-countrys-economy-237915

[7] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/israeli-war-costs-economy-over-673-billion-economists/3304597

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.