OPINION - North Korea’s military support for Russia tests limits of Western influence

By Jonathan Fenton-Harvey

- The author is a researcher and journalist focusing on conflict and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa, primarily related to the Gulf region.

ISTANBUL (AA) - News of North Korea's military support for Russia is now a near-weekly headline, as both countries strengthen their alliance in the face of Western sanctions and international isolation.

On Oct. 27, the Pentagon confirmed that North Korea had sent over 10,000 of its own troops to fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine. Per reports by Western officials, many North Korean troops have already reached areas of eastern Ukraine under Russia’s control, while some will head directly to Russia’s contested Kursk region, in which the Ukrainian army has made strategic gains this year.

The Russia-North Korea relationship is not without precedent; it stretches back to the Soviet Union’s support for North Korea’s establishment as a communist state, which continued throughout the Cold War. However, relations had cooled, as post-Soviet Russia began embracing ties with the West.

The war in Ukraine has changed that. Russia, facing a scarcity of allies and an ever-deepening munitions shortage, has turned to Pyongyang for support.

- Strategic exchange: Guns and technology

What began as an informal arrangement has now crystallized into a comprehensive strategic partnership, signed in June and ratified in October, where each nation commits military assistance if the other is threatened. In short, the two regimes have formalized an alliance that directly challenges the US-led sanctions regime​.

The partnership’s crux is transactional, anchored in exchanges of North Korean ammunition for Russian technology and economic resources. Moscow, reportedly receiving thousands of containers of artillery shells and munitions from Pyongyang, gains desperately needed supplies to sustain its artillery-focused operations in Ukraine.

The presence of North Korean troops in Russia reportedly includes technicians and military engineers embedded with Russian forces. Their presence may free Russian troops for front-line duty, signaling an unprecedented level of engagement by North Korea on a foreign battlefield​.

In return, North Korea appears to be receiving much-needed cash and, potentially, Russian expertise in advanced weapons technologies that could enhance its ballistic missile and expanding its nuclear capabilities – areas of critical interest to Kim Jong Un as he seeks to bolster his regime’s deterrence posture​.

- Asia-Pacific’s new geopolitical jolt

An emboldened Russia-North Korea partnership has naturally sent shockwaves beyond the Euro-Atlantic. In the Asia-Pacific, US allies such as South Korea and Japan are contending with a North Korea potentially bolstered​​​​​​​ by new weapons and training.

Seoul has openly condemned the collaboration, with its intelligence agencies releasing satellite imagery purportedly showing North Korean troops at Russian facilities. On Oct. 30, Seoul announced it will send a team to monitor Pyongyang’s troops in Ukraine, thus solidifying South Korea’s alignment with the US-led world order while furthering its rift with Pyongyang.

Seoul’s own considerations of supplying lethal aid to Ukraine reflect its own security concerns tied to this alliance. And Japan, having expressed concerns about the alliance, may also deepen its alignment with Washington and South Korea, especially considering its joint military exercises with these allies this year.

The US may also find it difficult to negotiate a coherent approach with China. Indeed, Beijing has long been uneasy with North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile testing, fearing they will invite an increase US presence in the region.

It’s too early to talk of an anti-Western axis emerging over Ukraine. China, which has avoided supplying Moscow with lethal aid in Ukraine, may also feel uneasy with Pyongyang’s direct military support for Russia.

However, as Russia backs North Korea’s ambitions more openly, Beijing may find its influence on Pyongyang diminishing. This shift could pressure China to either tolerate North Korea’s partnership with Moscow or intervene to prevent destabilizing fallout.

- The road ahead

For Russia, North Korean support offers an essential lifeline amid sanctions, transforming what began as a European conflict into an Asian one.

This Russo-Korean alliance signals a challenge for stakeholders in the Asia-Pacific, especially the US, Japan, and South Korea, who are intensifying joint military posturing in response.

Washington’s view of this partnership as a “significant escalation” suggests the potential for a stronger US response to counter Moscow and Pyongyang.

As the alliance grows, regional stakeholders face a delicate balancing act – any aggressive stance toward Pyongyang could provoke retaliation, yet tolerating it may further entrench this emerging partnership.

While not yet rivaling Cold War alliances, this partnership has shifted from symbolic to operational and will test the limits of Western influence in Asia and beyond.

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.