OPINION - Russia and China’s Arctic ambitions: A marriage of convenience?

By Jonathan Fenton-Harvey

- The author is a researcher and journalist focusing on conflict and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa, primarily related to the Gulf region.

ISTANBUL (AA) — The once-forgotten Arctic has emerged as a new geopolitical frontier as Russia and China’s growing partnership tightens over the region. Estimated to hold about 30% of the world’s undiscovered natural gas and 13% of its oil, the Arctic also offers untapped minerals and new maritime shipping routes.

China and Russia’s cooperation was most recently demonstrated in September, when they conducted joint naval and air force drills under the Ocean 24 strategy, covering the Northern Pacific and Arctic Oceans.

What appears to be a robust alliance, however, hides divergent ambitions and even mutual distrust. Nonetheless, their activities have startled both the US and its allies, such as Japan and NATO members with proximity to the Arctic.

- Russia’s strategic arctic fortress

Russia’s vision is not just about sovereignty claims. It seeks to leverage the Arctic to strengthen its geopolitical clout. The Kremlin sees itself as the natural ruler of the icy expanse, determining who can access its wealth of resources and who cannot.

For Russia, the Arctic houses some of its most vital military assets, including the Northern Fleet and nuclear installations. Under President Vladimir Putin, Moscow has reasserted dominance, reviving Soviet-era military bases and reinforcing its Arctic presence from the Kola Peninsula onward.

But it is not just military power Russia seeks — it is also economic dominance. The Northern Sea Route (NSR) is a valuable trade corridor that offers quicker access to Asian markets, which some analysts expect to be "ice free" by 2050 due to climate change.

This positions Russia as the "gatekeeper" of the Arctic, not only giving it control over a critical trade route but also strengthening its status as an energy powerhouse through access to the region's vast oil and gas reserves.

While Russia has established its influence in the Arctic, China also seeks a piece of the pie, seeing cooperation with Moscow as the easiest entry point into that region. While claiming to be a "near-Arctic" state, Beijing’s real interest lies in the region’s untapped resources and a stake in the NSR.

- China's push for minerals and the Polar Silk Road

China has faced pushback from Western nations, including Canada and Denmark, over its attempted investments in Arctic gold mines and rare earth mineral projects. Yet, as China has increased its investments in Russia amid mounting Western sanctions on Moscow, these have also extended to projects in Russia's sphere of influence in the Arctic. For instance, in 2023, China invested in titanium mining in the Russian Republic of Komi, a federal subject of Russia.

The Arctic’s wide array of minerals are critical for China’s manufacturing and technology sectors, especially as it seeks to maintain dominance in electronics and green energy.

For China, another benefit is access to the Polar Silk Road, an extension of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Currently, China aims to cut travel time to Europe by 30-40% compared to routes like the Suez Canal and is investing in Arctic infrastructure, including ports, railways, and icebreaker ships, to boost trade via the NSR.

However, China’s ambitions may prove a double-edged sword for Russia. With its deeply entrenched view of the Arctic as a national preserve, Russia is still wary of a significant expansion from Beijing. Historically shielding the region from non-Arctic states, Russia may be cautious over granting Beijing too much access.

- The Western alliance also wants its share

For now, both China and Russia are playing a long game, eyeing the region’s untapped potential for natural resources and shipping routes. But divergent ambitions within their partnership suggest that this is no grand alliance, at least so far.

While China and Russia’s cooperation over the Arctic may be in its natal stages, their growing alignment has triggered alarm bells in Washington. In July, the Pentagon updated its Arctic Strategy 2024, aimed at enhancing surveillance, intelligence, and military cooperation with the aim of countering Russia and China.

With Finland and Sweden joining NATO and Japan aligning with the bloc, Washington may call on its allies in efforts to contain Beijing and Moscow.

Yet as their partnership strengthens amid global tensions, Washington’s attempts to expand influence in the Arctic without a clear strategy could drive Moscow and Beijing into a closer alliance, setting aside their differences due to shared competition with the West.

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.