OPINION - Strategic minerals and REEs: The new battleground in global power play

By Dr. Tarek Cherkaoui

-The author is manager of the Istanbul-based TRT World Research Center and author of The News Media at War: The Clash of Western and Arab Networks in the Middle East. Cherkaoui is an expert in strategic communications.

ISTANBUL (AA) - Strategic minerals and rare earth elements (REEs) play a crucial role in modern technology, essential across various sectors from consumer electronics to defense. These elements are indispensable for smartphones, where they enable touchscreens (indium), battery performance (lithium, cobalt), and audio functionalities (gadolinium for microphones, neodymium for vibration). Their significance extends to critical industries such as medicine and defense, [1] highlighting the strategic importance of REE mining.

As of 2023, China dominated [2] global REE production, accounting for nearly 70% (68.6%), while the USA followed with 12.3%, representing a substantial but smaller share compared to China.

- Geopolitical competition

Today, the competition over strategic minerals mirrors past rivalries over the control of energy resources. Unlike the oil-centric conflicts of the past, the demand for minerals like lithium, cobalt, and rare-earth elements stems not just from energy needs but also from technological advancements crucial for modern economies and militaries. The concentration of these resources in a few countries, coupled with thin markets vulnerable to price volatility and strategic manipulation, raises concerns akin to Cold War [3] resource politics.

The strategic minerals sector has become the latest battleground in the US-China tech rivalry. Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, graphite, and Rare Earth elements are pivotal to the clean energy transition. Notably, Rare Earth elements, where China dominates with significant reserves and nearly 90% of global processing capacity, [4] present a key leverage point for China over the US. This disparity poses challenges for the US as it navigates this geopolitical contest.

While US politicians frequently discuss decoupling from China's supply chains, the reality is that China holds a disproportionately high share of critical mineral processing capabilities. For instance, in graphite, Chinese companies control approximately 80% of this capacity. In the event of a potential conflict involving the US and China, supply chains dominated by a single source would face significant disruption challenges.

Therefore, expert reports recommended the diversification of supply chains. However, this task is daunting as China has steadily strengthened its advantages over decades. In rare earth minerals, China has solidified its position over 20 years via aggressive and sustained investments in numerous global mining sites. China's strategy aims to maintain these advantages, leveraging its strong position against the US and its allies, and posing considerable risks of disruption if the US is serious about decoupling from Chinese supply chains.

- Gulf countries venture into the REE sector

Recently, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have ventured [5] strategically into the sector of strategic minerals primarily to diversify their economies away from dependency on hydrocarbon exports. This shift is part of broader economic diversification plans, such as Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, aimed at reducing reliance on oil revenues. Both countries are investing heavily in acquiring stakes in global mining operations and forming partnerships with key mineral-rich countries like Zambia, Brazil, and Pakistan. These initiatives not only aim to secure access to critical minerals essential for technologies like electric vehicles and defense systems but also serve significant geopolitical objectives.

From Washington's perspective, the entry of Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the global race for strategic minerals is welcomed as a means to counterbalance China's dominant position in mineral refining. The United States sees these Gulf countries as potential allies in efforts to diversify and secure global mineral supply chains, reducing dependency on Chinese dominance.

- Enter Türkiye

Türkiye is also making strides in this sector. Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Alparslan Bayraktar's meeting with Chinese Minister of Natural Resources Wang Guanghua in Beijing on May 21, 2024, underscored [6] new avenues for bilateral cooperation, particularly in natural resources, mining, and the realm of critical minerals and rare earth elements.

Critical minerals and rare earth elements are pivotal for technological advancements in various sectors. Türkiye's Eti Maden has identified significant REE deposits near the Beylikova district of Eskisehir, potentially enabling local production of advanced technologies without heavy reliance on imports. Ministry of Energy sources indicate [7] that Beylikova hosts the world's second-largest single REE deposit, boasting 694 million tons of raw capacity, with 17 REEs found, 10 of which are processable.

Back in April 2023, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan inaugurated Türkiye's first pilot REE plant in Beylikova focusing on barite and fluorite production. The site also holds thorium deposits, offering alternatives for nuclear power, and magnesite used in defense applications.

In conclusion, the global competition for rare earth elements and strategic minerals has evolved into a critical arena of geopolitical maneuvering and economic strategy. China's dominant position in both production and processing capacity poses significant challenges for countries seeking to diversify supply chains and reduce dependency. The entry of Gulf countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE into the sector marks a strategic shift aimed at reshuffling the cards in this sector. The US rather looks favorably on these new players, who are chipping away at China's dominant positions.

Türkiye's advancements in rare earth elements underscore its proactive stance in harnessing domestic resources for technological self-sufficiency. Türkiye's collaboration with global leaders like China and the US, pivotal players in this competitive field, is imperative for acquiring essential processing technologies. The discovery of substantial rare earth deposits in Eskisehir not only positions Türkiye to bolster its technological capabilities but also presents a pivotal opportunity to lead in critical technological domains.

This moment calls for Türkiye to accelerate its efforts, forge robust partnerships, and invest significantly in developing its rare earth processing capabilities to solidify its role as a key player in the global strategic minerals market.

[1] https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/02/the-us-military-and-nato-face-serious-risks-of-mineral-shortages?lang=en

[2] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-rare-earths-dominance-focus-after-mineral-export-curbs-2023-07-05/

[3] https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/11/22/critical-minerals-resources-us-china-competition-cold-war-supply-chains/

[4] https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ffd2a83b-8c30-4e9d-980a-52b6d9a86fdc/TheRoleofCriticalMineralsinCleanEnergyTransitions.pdf

[5] https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/03/21/saudi-arabia-uae-critical-mineral-energy-transition/

[6] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/turkiye-china-ink-mou-on-energy-transition/3225969

[7] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/energy/turkey/turkiye-uncovers-worlds-second-largest-rare-earth-element-reserve/35729

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.