OPINION - Syrian revolution continues: Manbij and beyond

By Murat Aslan

- The author is a faculty member at Hasan Kalyoncu University in Gaziantep, Türkiye, and a senior researcher at the Ankara-based Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA).

ISTANBUL (AA) - Syria, where humanitarian tragedies are epitomized by the images of Bashar al-Assad’s prisons, has entered a new phase with all opposition elements reaching Damascus in a coordinated manner. The situation is now stable and secure. The opposition, which has taken full control in the west of the Euphrates River, intends to restore order in the cities, initiate the political transition process, and take preliminary steps for the normalization of life. The instruction not to interfere with state institutions is particularly important to ensure a smooth transition. This step prevented the destruction of the state and denied the disruptions in the provision of services to citizens. In other words, the button was pressed for a stable transition instead of chaos.

- The games in Syria are coming to an end one by one

Although the planned wisdom of taking Damascus has toppled down the regime, not all regions of Syria are in control of "Syrians" yet. Israel's "opportunistic" attacks on some targets and its attempts to wrest more territory from the Golan are ill-intentioned. On the other hand, the opposition is concentrating on the consolidation of the state without forgetting the priorities that have been identified. In other words, the Israeli issue is relegated to the future.

Iran has been forced to leave Syria, and Russia is experiencing a recovery phase to foresee the future of the Ukraine war. Due to the unconditional support of these countries to Assad, the Syrian people have been "pariahs in their own homeland". This period is coming to an end as far as Russia and Iran leave Syria. Following United States (US) President-elect Donald Trump's message, it seems that the US will make a similar choice. The Pentagon and Central Command (CENTCOM), which are currently focused on the security of US troops and bases, have wasted American interests and tax dollars by "backing the wrong horse" with Brett McGurk's biased projections.

- Manbij operation: Terror nest cleared

In addition to the developments on the Damascus pivot, the work is far from over either across or at the east of the Euphrates. Manbij is still largely under the control of the opposition. Deir ez-Zor, with its oil resources, has ignited another climate of conflict. As the terrorist group PKK targets civilians in their peaceful protests, armed struggle will probably continue in a small part of Manbij and Deir ez-Zor for some time. Manbij's economic resources and geographical location and Deir ez-Zor's oil resources are the cause of conflict in the region.

At this point, it is useful to focus on Manbij, which is important for Türkiye. Manbij needs to be under full control of the opposition for the sake of security, safety, and stability. In other words, it is important to end the terrorist group PKK's presence in the city and to ensure the social cohesion of the tribes on the axis of Syrianness. Otherwise, a divided and incomplete Syria will be passed on to future generations. Therefore, it is important to understand why the presence of terrorist groups in the region is alarming the Syrian opposition groups and to see what has been achieved by the Syrian National Army (SNA) by taking control of Manbij.

Manbij is a self-sufficient city in terms of water supply, agricultural products, and electricity generation. Despite the conflict across Syria, the city's economic potential offers logistical advantages to whoever controls it. The city's predominantly Arab and Turkish demographics were forced to migrate to Türkiye after the emergence of Daesh/ISIS and the PKK in the region. However, this process did not change the city's tribal demography. The city, which was given to the terrorist group PKK as a favor after Daesh/ISIS, with the coercion of the US, was supposed to be returned to its owners under a protocol signed between Türkiye and the US. However, the US has never fulfilled this promise. The US Army established a military council, and the administration of the city was handed over to the terrorist group PKK. Interestingly, the Russians cooperated with the PKK in Manbij as much as the US soldiers. The two adversaries have preferred quiet harmony when it comes to the terrorist group PKK.

- Why Manbij is important

The importance of Manbij for Türkiye should be mentioned from several perspectives. First of all, Manbij is a springboard just south of the Turkish border. Whoever controls it can trigger either a threat against Türkiye or a move that can develop the region, depending on the intention. Thus, a PKK-held Manbij could host the planning, preparation, and execution of attacks against residents or security forces along and behind Türkiye's borders. However, once under opposition control, Manbij will realize its potential to revitalize the regional economy instead of becoming a security problem.

Another feature of Manbij is that it dominates the closest crossing points of the Euphrates River to Türkiye. Having control over Manbij is an advantage in the fight against the terrorist group PKK. For example, in the military context, control of Manbij allows the terrorist group PKK to prevent wide-fronted asymmetric attacks in subsequent operations east of the Euphrates River. In the socioeconomic context, Manbij is a candidate city to become an economic center of attraction along with al-Bab.

Militarily, the control of Manbij will allow the SNA and the Turkish Armed Forces to save forces for a military campaign that could be launched from the north. In other words, a probable operation to neutralize the terrorist group PKK could encircle it over a wide area, starting from both the Euphrates River axis and the Turkish borders. With Deir ez-Zor coming under opposition control, the terrorist group PKK can be put under pressure from all directions. Even though the US is known to be in favor of the terrorist group PKK, it seems unlikely that it will be able to prevent the terrorist group PKK from being wiped out of Syria due to the lack of popular support.

Another issue is about the returns of Syrians. SNA's control of Manbij paved the way for the voluntary, dignified, and honorable return of the internally displaced people and Syrians under protection in Türkiye. Considering that approximately 400,000 Manbijis live in northwestern Syria or in Türkiye, hundreds of thousands of Manbijis will be able to return to their lands as the terrorist group PKK is expelled from Manbij.

Ultimately, the capture of Manbij is as important as Aleppo, Hama, Homs, and Damascus and is a major security initiative for Türkiye. On the other hand, the goal of eradicating the entire terrorist group PKK's presence east of the Euphrates River and the complete normalization of Syria should be the objective. With Manbij, only the first phase of a long and patiently endured process will be on the agenda to remove the terrorist group PKK from Syria.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.