OPINION - The 2024 US Presidential election: Deadlocks and scenarios

By Cagdas Yuksel

* The author is a researcher at TRT World Research Center.

ISTANBUL (AA)- Polls indicate a potential Joe Biden-Donald Trump rematch for the US presidency in November 2024. As the nation approaches this pivotal election, President Biden is scrutinized for his age, health concerns, and handling of challenges including illegal immigration, economic issues, and military engagements in the Middle East. In the Michigan primaries [1], he garnered an undecided vote of 13.2% and encountered considerable opposition for his stance on Israel.

Hundreds of thousands of voters across the country cast their ballots for no candidate in Democratic primaries on Super Tuesday, instead selecting versions of "uncommitted" as a movement opposing Biden's handling of Israel's war in Gaza. The most important argument of the anti-Trump coalition is that the former president's style of presidency pushed the boundaries of state institutions and their roles, and they directly hold him responsible for the events of Jan. 6.

- What happened in 2016?

Trump won the 2016 presidential election by tapping into the frustrations of rural and industrial areas feeling left behind by economic shifts and globalization. His campaign focused on themes of economic nationalism, promising to bring back manufacturing jobs, renegotiate trade deals, and prioritize American workers. Trump appealed to voters disillusioned with the political establishment. Additionally, his campaign capitalized on deeply polarizing cultural and social issues, such as immigration and national identity, which mobilized his support base.

The Democrats appear to have missed a chance to counter Trump effectively. Prior to Trump's win against Hillary Clinton in 2016, Bernie Sanders' candidacy and the momentum [2] it generated offered insights into the public's sociological landscape and aspirations.

Sanders and Trump, though seemingly at opposite ends of the political spectrum, share some sociological similarities in their appeal and approach. Both capitalized on a sense of disillusionment among certain segments of the population. Sanders represented the progressive left, while Trump embodied the populist right, both tapping into the public's expectation for a "disruptive outsider."

However, Sanders lost to Clinton in his party's primaries in 2016. Trump's "unique presidency" culminated in handing over the Oval Office keys to Biden in 2020.

- Today's scenarios

Put simply, the prevailing wisdom and societal foundations of the US tolerate a degree of flexibility but draw the line at certain boundaries. In today's context, affording Trump another term presents risks to this established norm.

In fact, any scenario involving Trump would lead to this result. If Trump loses the election, he will raise questions about election security. Who can guarantee that there won't be protests similar to Jan. 6? If pushed outside the election, Trump will become a "witch hunt victim." [3] If Trump wins the election, it would mean "the end of individual freedoms" for Democrats, especially regarding issues such as abortion and immigration policies.

In this scenario, independent voters, disenchanted with both Democrats and Trump, find themselves without a political champion. A decisive win against Trump is viewed as a potential panacea for the prevailing issues.

Trump's best opportunity in the 2024 elections hinges on facing Biden as his adversary, given that issues such as interference and muzzling political opponents using the legal apparatus already resonate negatively with many Americans. Most of Trump’s weaknesses reside in the realm of foreign policy, as his favorable remarks about Russia and its President Vladimir Putin, for example, could alienate rural Republicans, who traditionally view Russia as a communist foe.
-What is the situation of Democrats?

However, at this point, despite murmurs against Biden, Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson did not pose a threat to Biden, and Philips has dropped out of the 2024 presidential race and endorsed Biden after Super Tuesday. Finally, on Feb. 24, applications were received from candidates for the primaries in eight states, and applications will be accepted until March 24, with only eight states left.

As things stand right now, even though Biden receives protest votes in the primaries, the president does not face a threat of being defeated by an opponent from the Democratic Party.

Nonetheless, this scenario doesn't spell a complete advantage for the Democrats. Biden's prospects of defeating Trump appear slim, suggesting the potential need for Biden to exit the race. Should this occur, it would usher in a new electoral phase filled with alternate scenarios and strategies.

In a scenario where Biden withdraws from the race for one reason or another, Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and former First Lady Michelle Obama could emerge as prominent figures.

By March 19, Democrats will have distributed the majority of their delegates via the primaries. [4] Hence, although a few primaries remain, a newcomer to the race would require backing from delegates already pledged to Biden. In this scenario, the prospects for any potential candidates significantly increase, as individual delegates gain considerable sway over the party's nomination decision.

If Biden is out of the race, the Democrats could reach a consensus on one of two names who could garner support from different segments of society and especially influence independent voters: Michelle Obama and Kamala Harris. Vice President Harris appears more prepared and willing for the role compared to Obama. In fact, Harris stated [5] last week that she is ready to serve as president.

In this situation, Trump's primary concern shouldn't be the legal challenges he dismisses as a "witch hunt." Instead, his prospects of winning would become more daunting if he were to contend with Harris or Obama.

[1] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-primary-elections/michigan-president-results#democratic-primary

[2] https://edition.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/parties/democrat

[3] https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/03/30/trump-political-witch-hunt-indictment-00089011

[4] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/key-dates-2024-us-presidential-race-2023-09-29/

[5] https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/13/kamala-harris-says-shes-ready-to-serve-as-president/72581992007/

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.