OPINION - The American elections and the Gaza effect

By Dr. Sami Al-Arian

- The author is director of the Center for Islam and Global Affairs (CIGA) at Türkiye's Istanbul Zaim University.

ISTANBUL (AA) - When Donald Trump was first elected president in 2016, many Arab and Muslim Americans anticipated an anti-Palestinian agenda that would make many previous United States presidents blush. Trump delivered.

He appointed Zionist zealots to steer US policy in the Middle East, particularly with regards to Israel and Palestine, culminating in his son-in-law Jared Kushner developing the "Deal of the Century,” a roadmap to the realization of all Zionist ambitions in the Middle East. Trump adopted policies [1] that shocked even seasoned diplomats due to how far they had moved from established US policy up to that point, such as relocating the US Embassy to Jerusalem. He took steps to essentially unravel the Oslo process, which previous US presidents, at least nominally, paid lip service to.

Trump sought to integrate [2] Israel into the region by incorporating the Zionist regime as the 21st member of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), which implements US military policy in the region, and through a series of normalization deals with Arab countries dubbed the Abraham Accords.

Trump also shifted policy on Iran. He unilaterally withdrew [3] from the Iran nuclear deal, or JCPOA, as signed by then-President Barack Obama in 2015, and also ordered the unprovoked assassination of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani, who was the architect of the "axis of resistance" in the region.

- Why Arab and Muslim Americans didn't vote for Democrats

By the 2020 presidential election, Arab and Muslim Americans overwhelmingly voted for Joe Biden due to these policies as well as the Trump administration’s hostility towards Muslims and immigrants in general. At that point, no one could have imagined that only four years later, most Arab and Muslim Americans would either boycott the 2024 election, vote third party, or, shockingly, vote for Trump himself.

To understand this shift, one only has to consider the Biden administration’s behavior towards Israel and Palestine over the last year. Since Oct. 7, 2023, when Israel began its war of extermination against the Palestinians in Gaza, Biden has provided Israel with most of its destructive weapons to the tune of $22.7 billion in military aid [4]; used its UN Security Council veto power three times against resolutions calling for a cease-fire; protected it in various international forums, including the International Court of Justice (ICJ) [5] and International Criminal Court (ICC); [6] and exercised its power in the region to threaten [7] and bribe [8] other Arab states against aiding the Palestinians. Indeed, the US has not just been complicit, but a full partner in the genocide and ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.

Other than a small number of fringe and compromised [9] groups like Emgage [10], the majority of grassroots [11] Arab and Muslim American organizers [12] and communities made it clear that unless Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris made a clear indication that her administration would shift policy away from Biden’s total support and involvement in the genocide, she would not earn their votes. [13]

Harris resisted [14] saying anything to distinguish herself from Biden’s policy towards Israel. She alienated Muslims and Arabs with her refusal [15] to engage and the silencing of protesters at her campaign rallies and the Democratic National Convention. When she did address the topic, she repeated the genocidal mantra that Israel had a right to defend [16] itself, offering few empty words about Palestinian suffering without any reference to the perpetrator.

Her defeat in this year's election could be attributed in large part to her stubborn refusal to address these voters' concerns. Compared to the 2020 election, when a large number of people turned out to defeat Donald Trump, the 2024 election [17] had 10 million fewer total votes, even though an additional 4 million voters were added in the time period between both elections. Trump roughly maintained the same total number of votes between both elections at around 75 million. It was the Democrats who lost 10 million votes between both elections, dropping from 81 million to 71 million. In other words, it is not Trump who won the 2024 election, but the Democrats who lost.

According to an Oct. 21 New York Times article [18], written just two weeks before the 2024 election, in the "battleground" states, the research showed that 3.7% of voters were undecided and “less likely to be white voters, with one-fifth of them being Black Americans.” The article revealed that undecided voters were “six times more likely to be motivated by their views of Israel’s war in Gaza when making their decision on who to vote for.” That 3.7% comes out to 583,000 voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

The Democrats ultimately put all their energy into these three states to claim victory over Trump. In 2020, Biden won these three states by a combined tally of 256,000 votes, or 1.6% of the vote. The 2024 result was exactly the reverse: Trump beat Harris by 255,000 votes in these same states, which also amounted to 1.6% of the vote.

Harris likely lost many of the undecided voters in these states, who considered the genocide to be a determining factor in their vote. Consider the voting data from two cities in Michigan with majority Muslim or Arab populations: Dearborn and Hamtramck.

According to the Detroit Free Press [19], in 2020, Biden received 69% of the votes in the city of Dearborn, where Trump received less than 30%. Hamtramck also went to Biden, where he received a whopping 85% compared to Trump’s 13%.

In 2024, Trump won Dearborn, receiving 42% compared to Harris’s 36%. He also won Hamtramck, receiving 44% of the vote compared to Harris’s 38%. Green Party candidate Jill Stein also received about a fifth of the votes across the whole district, exceedingly high for her compared to other districts, where she was in low numbers.

- Harris' lack of courage to speak out for Gaza cost her the election

When comparing the 2020 and 2024 elections, it becomes clear that Harris’s lack of courage in taking a stand against the genocide in Gaza and distinguishing herself from Biden cost her the election. Voters came out in 2020 in huge numbers to vote against Trump. In 2024, Trump was the same known quantity that he was before. Yet Harris could not rely on the fear of Trump to secure her victory because too many voters, especially Arab and Muslim Americans, were fed up and disgusted by the Democrats’ participation in the genocidal war on the people of Gaza and the criminal attacks against the Lebanese people.

The Democratic Party and American political elites must learn a lesson that voters will no longer be pressured into voting through the sensationalized fear of an extremist or populist Republican candidate. Instead, they will be driven by their moral clarity and determination to let politicians know that genocide and lack of respect for the concerns of Arabs and Muslims, as well as other principled and conscientious citizens, have a political cost.

[1] https://www.newyorker.com/news/dispatch/donald-trumps-legacy-in-israel

[2] https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2021/01/15/in-waning-days-trump-shakes-up-centcom-to-increase-arab-israeli-efforts-against-iran/

[3] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-plans-to-intensify-maximum-pressure-campaign-against-iran-report/3388739

[4] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/us-provided-179b-in-military-aid-to-israel-since-october-2023-report/3379862

[5] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/21/icj-hearing-israel-palestinian-occupation/

[6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/21/no-equivalence-biden-defends-israel-after-icc-requests-arrest-warrants

[7] https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/009-bending-guardrails-us-war-powers-after-7-october

[8] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-and-egyptian-foreign-minister-badr-abdelatty-at-a-joint-press-availability/

[9] https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/muslim-elite-capture-harris-weaponisation-identity

[10] https://www.middleeasteye.net/big-story/joe-biden-emgage-muslim-america-us-elections

[11] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/18/how-the-uncommitted-vote-against-bidens-gaza-policy-is-going-national

[12] https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/american-muslim-leaders-cite-us-support-for-gaza-genocide-in-decision-not-to-back-harris/3387924

[13] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/28/opinion/kamala-harris-gaza-israel-war.html

[14] https://www.newsweek.com/wisconsin-election-2024-kamala-harris-donald-trump-muslim-jewish-voters-swing-states-stein-1955897

[15] https://mondoweiss.net/2024/08/why-democrats-refused-to-allow-a-palestinian-speaker-at-the-dnc/

[16] https://www.npr.org/2024/08/23/g-s1-19232/kamala-harris-israel-gaza-dnc

[17] https://trtworld.com/elections/us/2024

[18] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/us/politics/trump-harris-undecided-voters.html

[19] https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/11/06/trump-wins-dearborn-and-makes-gains-in-hamtramck/76085841007/

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy