OPINION - The last push for a Gaza agreement

By Dr. Ali Bakir

-The author is an assistant professor at Qatar University and a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.

ISTANBUL (AA) – Last week, US President Joe Biden announced that the US would make “another push with Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza, secure the release of hostages, and end the war without Hamas in power.” This announcement came against the backdrop of a US-sponsored cease-fire agreement between Israel and Lebanon, which US envoy Amos Hochstein claims is intended to establish a long-term arrangement for peace and security.

- Path to sustainable cease-fire fraught with complexities

The cease-fire in Lebanon offers a potential framework for Gaza, with Türkiye's involvement adding a new dimension to mediation efforts. However, the path to a sustainable cease-fire in Gaza is fraught with complexities, requiring concerted diplomatic efforts, compromises from all parties involved, and, most importantly, pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

After more than a year of failed attempts to achieve a cease-fire in Gaza, the US administration is racing against the time to make its final push toward realizing this agreement.

However, Israel’s assassination of Hamas political leaders has weakened the capacity to communicate effectively with the Palestinian group, which is essential for reaching a viable agreement. With Hamas leaders reportedly out of Qatar at present and Doha announcing the suspension of its mediation efforts in November until "the necessary seriousness" is evident in negotiations, the US administration appears to be running out of options, especially as the window of opportunity closes in about a month.

- Pragmatic shift in US diplomacy

Consequently, the Biden administration's decision to utilize every possible effort in this last push for a cease-fire in Gaza, including those from Türkiye, despite previous efforts to sideline Ankara, reflects a pragmatic shift in US diplomacy aimed at leveraging Türkiye's position and influence in the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has consistently expressed Türkiye's readiness to contribute to establishing a lasting cease-fire in Gaza. At the onset of the crisis, Ankara proposed a “guarantor system,” which was dismissed by both Israel and the US, with some Arab governments also showing little enthusiasm for the offer.

The protracted conflict in Gaza has highlighted the limitations of excluding influential regional actors from peace processes. Türkiye's involvement is seen as crucial for achieving a comprehensive and enduring cease-fire, given its geopolitical significance and relationships with key parties.

The US administration recognizes that a durable resolution requires the inclusion of all stakeholders capable of influencing the situation on the ground. Engaging Türkiye aligns with the broader objective of stabilizing the region, even if it involves collaboration with partners who have complex and sometimes contentious relationships with other US allies.

- Hamas has been for cease-fire

Hamas has consistently expressed its readiness to agree to a credible deal that includes the release of captives in exchange for freeing Palestinian detainees held by Israel, ensuring unimpeded delivery of humanitarian assistance to Gaza, and the withdrawal of Israeli occupying forces with an established security agreement to prevent future escalations. Recently, Hamas released a video of the captives, aiming to rally support for a deal, including from the Israeli public and families of the captives, and to put pressure on the Israeli government.

Last week, Israeli President Isaac Herzog revealed that there are ongoing contacts between Israel and Hamas for a cease-fire and hostage release deal, asserting, “Now, after the agreement in Lebanon, it's time to make a deal and bring the captives home.” While specific terms are still under negotiation, the process has proven complex, particularly with Israel's assassination of Hamas political leaders and senior officials who were among the Palestinian negotiation team.

Moreover, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has emerged as a significant obstacle to reaching an agreement. At every critical juncture in the negotiations, Israeli negotiators, defense, and security officials have pointed to Netanyahu’s central role in sabotaging an agreement with Hamas that would achieve the interests of both sides.

- Will Netanyahu support cease-fire deal this time?

One theory suggests that Netanyahu may now be open to a deal for two reasons. First, he may not want to challenge the upcoming US President-elect Donald Trump, who has reportedly urged him to wrap up military operations before taking office in January. Second, despite Trump’s strong support for Israel, personal ties between Trump and Netanyahu have not been that good. At the end of his presidency, Trump concluded that Netanyahu did not genuinely want peace with the Palestinians and had used him against Iran. This implies that Netanyahu might seek to open a new chapter, at least at the beginning of Trump’s new term, and reaching an agreement on Gaza could be beneficial for him in this context.

Incorporating Türkiye into the Gaza cease-fire negotiations represents a recalibration by the Biden administration, acknowledging the complex nature of the problem. By engaging Türkiye alongside Egypt and Qatar in the process, the US aims to harness all available diplomatic channels to facilitate a cease-fire, secure the release of hostages, and ultimately work towards an acceptable deal. All parties are expected to contribute, and the urgency of the situation cannot be overstated. However, whether the US administration can realize this deal within a month or whether Netanyahu will sabotage this opportunity again remains to be seen.

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.