OPINION - Trump's 2016 and 2024 presidencies: A smoother path ahead

By Zeynep Coskun Koc

- The author is a strategic consultant in MENA political economy and foreign affairs.

ISTANBUL (AA) — With a landslide victory, Donald Trump is set to become president of the United States once again. One of the most sought-after pieces of information is about who will be accompanying him to the White House and to power. Trump has reportedly avoided talking about post-election roles, as he thought it would jinx his chances of winning. Now that victory is at hand, he is gathering his cabinet. A look at his 2016 election and the first 100 days of his presidency could provide insight into what is to come after Trump is inaugurated.

- Clues from the 2016 election and his first 100 days

Trump won in the Electoral College in 2016, but not the popular vote. His defense: he strategized [1] to win the Electoral College, as that’s what matters. His presidency was marked by controversy and even after his victory, the FBI investigated his campaign for ties to Russia and potential collusion.

In late November 2016, at a Chatham House event in London, I remember witnessing the widespread panic among Eurocrats and political researchers. One speaker said, “The West has lost its moral authority since a Western democracy elected Trump.” Some viewed it as a glitch in the system, but Trump’s undeniable victory in 2024 shows that the 2016 win was no coincidence.

Accusations of Russian interference were most firmly vocalized by former President Barack Obama, [2] who expelled Russian diplomats, closed compounds, and imposed sanctions, followed by suspicious deaths [3] of Russian diplomats around the world from New York to Ankara and Athens to Khartoum.

Fueling the controversy, two months into his term, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ambassador Sergey Kislyak had a cordial meeting [4] with Trump in the Oval Office. The meeting took place a day after Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, who was investigating possible collusion. Washington was abuzz with concerns of obstruction of justice. Despite claims of Russian meddling, the investigation did not yield clear proof of Trump’s campaign colluding with Russia. However, throughout his presidency, the controversy lingered. In May 2023, special prosecutor John Durham finally concluded that the FBI acted hastily in launching the Russia investigation and closed the investigation. [5] Trump's indictment came for mishandling classified documents, not collusion. In 2024, the Russia narrative resurfaced with bomb threats linked to Russian sources in the swing state of Georgia and allegations that Trump supporter billionaire Elon Musk [6] has been in contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since 2022 and had a secret talk in October 2024.

Trump dominated the media with late-night tweets and interviews, drawing constant attention. His White House was no different, marked by leaks and short tenures among his staffers. Antonio Scaramucci, who served as communications director for just 10 days, publicly accused [7] Chief of Staff Reince Priebus of leaking his financial documents on Twitter. His staff turnover was high, and Senate confirmations were lengthy. The Washington Post had a tracking page for the numerous vacancies in Trump’s cabinet, mocking the slow pace of his team's formation.

Trump’s methods were unconventional. In February 2017, he was seen with Japan's then-prime minister, the late Shinzo Abe, at the patio of his country club, Mar-a-Lago, looking through "classified" documents about North Korea’s ballistic missile fired in the direction of Japan. Other club members were having dinner and watching the spectacle of two elected officials going through classified documents [8] via the flashlights of their aides.

Despite controversies, the markets thrived under Trump's administration, with the Dow Jones hitting record highs. [9] Trump’s appeal was to the working class, but Wall Streeters were also keen on his promise of tax cuts, and they got them: the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of November 2017 is estimated to have brought over $1.4 trillion in tax breaks [10], about 5% of US gross domestic product (GDP).

- 2024 landslide victory and Trump’s new cabinet

In 2024, Trump's victory was unquestionable — Trump was reelected by the American people, proving his appeal and political strength. In 2016, he lost the popular vote by 1.5 million, but in 2024, he won by almost 5 million votes. Even with independent candidates and Kamala Harris' votes combined, Trump maintained a decisive lead in red states.

With his reelection and GOP dominance in both the House and Senate, Trump has an easier path to push through his agenda. GOP control of at least 53 Senate seats makes it hard for Democrats to oppose him, as flipping four votes is a significant challenge.

Trump's team appears more organized this time. As of Nov. 7, he appointed Susie Wiles [11] as chief of staff, a contrast to the last-minute 2016 appointment of Reince Priebus, which led to a bumpy transition. Wiles, a 2024 campaign manager and Florida campaign lead in 2016, could streamline the process, though controversy may remain. Trump Jr. and Robert F. Kennedy have already been spotted with Trump at the Mar-a-Lago patio, [12] where elites angle for roles. One might observe increased travel from Washington to Florida, given the growing influence of Mar-a-Lago in setting the Trump team’s agenda.

Eric Trump and his wife Lara Trump, now Republican National Committee (RNC) co-chair who had been a important ally to Trump's nomination, can be expected to take part in Trump's team. Kennedy, after endorsing Trump and running his “Make America Healthy Again” campaign, seems poised for a key position. Elon Musk is also likely to join Trump’s team. Previously on Trump’s advisory council in 2016, Musk stepped down after the Paris Climate Accord withdrawal, but after publicly endorsing Trump in 2024, rallying others (including Joe Rogan), and investing millions in swing states, Musk is now a powerful ally. While it is unclear if he will keep an advisory role or enter the cabinet, Musk has already expressed interest in a position in August for a cabinet position. [13] Elon was spotted [14] in the conversation Trump had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy post his victory, signaling that his appointment will not be a symbolic position.

Many 2016 officials will not return, given their contentious exits. [15] Some moved on to different positions, like Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who became governor of Arkansas after her position as the Trump press secretary. Trump also started to post who will not return from his old team, such as Nikki Haley and Mike Pompeo. One of the loyalists who might make a comeback is Richard Grenell, Trump’s former ambassador to Germany and acting director of national intelligence. He was involved in the 2020 Capitol riots, and Trump calls him “my envoy.” [16] He might be shaping foreign policy instead of Pompeo.

With strong Senate support, Trump can easily confirm appointees. The reluctance to serve in a Trump administration was the stigma of 2016. With his decided victory, he has more candidates than ever lining up to be on his team. However, Trump’s untraditional approach remains. His family will wield influence, Mar-a-Lago will be central, and his team will be as diverse and controversial as ever. With his love for firing, most appointees may not have long tenures. So, besides his vice president, JD Vance, who he cannot legally dismiss, turnover will be high. Except Trump and his VP, none should be taken for granted.

[1] https://www.politico.com/story/2016/12/trump-electoral-college-win-tweets-232879

[2] https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/statement-president-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity

[3] https://www.axios.com/2017/12/15/russian-diplomats-keep-dying-unexpectedly-1513303951

[4] https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/05/10/the-strange-oval-office-meeting-between-trump-lavrov-and-kislyak/

[5] https://apnews.com/article/durham-trump-russia-probe-7e84f94ca9cf7905cbc5eddc108575b3

[6] https://www.wsj.com/world/russia/musk-putin-secret-conversations-37e1c187

[7] https://www.politico.com/story/2017/07/27/playbook-anthony-scaramucci-disclosure-form-241014

[8] https://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/13/politics/donald-trump-shinzo-abe-north-korea-documents/index.html

[9] https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2017/10/16/us-stocks-earnings-netflix-trump.html

[10] https://taxfoundation.org/taxedu/glossary/tax-cuts-and-jobs-act/

[11] https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/trump-latest-news-susie-wiles-cabinet-kdvc8mxbb

[12] https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/07/politics/trump-white-house-staff-maralago/index.html

[13] https://fortune.com/2024/08/20/elon-musk-trump-cabinet-position/

[14] https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/elon-musk-briefly-joins-trumps-call-volodymyr-zelenskyy-rcna179418

[15] https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/04/trumps-insults-idiot-woodward-806455

[16] https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx24gze60yzo

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.