OPINION - Trump’s disastrous first year

By Hussain Abdul Hussain

- The writer is a Washington-based political analyst. He has written for the The New York Times, The Washington Post and Kuwaiti daily Al Rai, among others.

WASHINGTON DC (AA) - President Donald Trump ended the year on what seemed to be a high note, snatching a significant legislative victory as Congress passed one of the biggest tax-cut laws in decades. Trump continuously boasted that America’s stock market was recording new highs by the day, that unemployment was near record-low at 4.1 percent, and that the GDP in 2017 grew at an average rate of 3 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 2-percent average since 2000.

But for all his boast and bombast, Trump’s economic performance -- which he has made his signature policy given his previous experience as a businessman -- might not be as strong as he depicts it.

In his first weeks in office, Trump presumably convinced Carrier to reverse its decision to lay off 1,800 of its workers at one of its factories in Indiana. Because Vice President Mike Pence had just left Indiana’s governorship, he was able to pull some strings to offer Carrier some state tax incentives. Carrier agreed to keep the workers, as Trump went on TV to declare that there would be consequences for companies that decide to offshore their operations.

Few months passed before Carrier announced, again, that it would lay off 500 workers, with more cuts looming in the horizon. The American company was cutting coast by relocating its operations to Mexico, a step that makes business sense. Trump could only delay the inevitable when he put on a theatrical show to win popular support.

When it came to jobs, Trump has claimed low unemployment as one of his achievements. By December, the U.S. economy had created jobs for the 99th consecutive month, a record in U.S. history. Yet, only 11 of these 99 months were on Trump’s watch, with the remaining 88 months of job creation happening during the presidency of his predecessor Barack Obama.

Like his Carrier stunt, Trump always put a spin on his policies to make them sound better than they actually are. His tax cuts, according to the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, will not only punch a hole in America’s annual deficit and national debt, now standing at over 100 percent of its GDP, the office also said that by the time the temporary tax-cut for individuals expires in 2023 (while cuts for corporations remain permanent), taxes would have effectively risen on most Americans.

Trump might not deliver on the economy as much as he promised, yet the American economy -- alongside the world economy at large -- is expected to expand in the coming few years, which makes the U.S. economic performance the least of Trump’s concerns.

After his first year in office, Trump should be concerned over several other issues, some pertaining to policy -- such as his confused foreign policy -- and others connected to the ongoing investigation into possible collusion between Trump and his lieutenants, on one hand, and Russia, on the other, during his presidential campaign in 2016.

Like on the economy, Trump has claimed credit on foreign policy in areas where credit is due to his predecessor Obama. For example, the U.S. president has hailed America’s victory over Daesh in Iraq and Syria. In fact, Trump left Obama’s war policy on the terrorist group so intact that he even left Obama’s top official on the job, Brett McGurk, in place.

Meanwhile, Trump continued berating his predecessor for his Iran policy, accusing Obama of appeasement and of reaching “the worst (nuclear) deal in history”. Despite taking a stronger position against Daesh, Trump has yet to escalate in ways that force JCPOA, the international nuclear agreement with Iran, to crumble.

Trump has so far endorsed a confused policy on Iran. He made the Office on Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), specialized in combating financing of terrorism, impose new sanctions on Iranian entities, accusing them of oppressing Iranians. Trump’s demand: Amend JCPOA. Using terrorism tools to punish human rights violations in order to amend a nuclear deal not only shows amateurism in diplomacy, but shows that Trump does not know what he wants from Iran, and if he does, he has no idea how to press the right buttons.

Another foreign policy that Trump designed to part ways with Obama was on Israel. Obama’s relations with Tel Aviv remained strained throughout his presidency. Yet Obama never abandoned the classic American position of unlimited support toward Israel. Obama even increased the annual U.S. aid to Israel to unprecedented levels.

But because Trump believes that by keeping Israel happy he can get the Jewish-American vote and election funds, he became the first sitting U.S. president to visit the Western Wall in Jerusalem.

Trump also tried to hint that he would go where none of his predecessors dared to go: He ordered the relocation of the U.S. embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. What Trump did not say, however, was which Jerusalem. By intentionally not saying “united Jerusalem” or “East Jerusalem,” Trump effectively left the question of the U.S. move open, and amenable to fall in line with the positions of the members of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which met in Istanbul to declare that “East Jerusalem” is the capital of the would-be Palestinian state, hence leaving West Jerusalem open for a possible relocation of the U.S. or any other embassy in Israel.

Domestically, Trump has suffered. The courts have blocked many of his executive orders, such as a travel ban and an Obama-era protection program for illegal under-age immigrants (known as DACA). Trump also looked worried and unable to shake off a federal investigation into his possible collusion with the Russian government.

To complicate things further, shortly after his election as president, Trump fired FBI Director James Comey after having failed to convince him to drop the Russia investigation. Special Investigator and former FBI Director Robert Mueller assembled the best team of investigators as he went after Trump, his family members and his top aides. Mueller is not only looking into charges of complicity, but also possible obstruction of justice. Should the Republicans lose Congressional majority in November, and should Mueller find grounds for indicting Trump, presidential impeachments will become a near certainty.

As Trump tries to deflect attention away from his legal troubles, often by posting controversial Tweets, he has also urged Republican lawmakers to kill the investigation by firing, or at least defunding, Mueller and his team. While often rallying to his defense in their statements, the majority of Republican lawmakers have not yet shown interest in pushing Mueller off the cliff, especially not for the sake of a president whose job approval ratings have been the lowest in history, according to most pollsters.

Even though Trump employed his sales skills to convince Americans that his first year in office has been remarkable, with unparalleled achievements, the majority of Americans seem aware of his spin. Hence, the Democrats have shown extraordinary results over the course of seven election rounds held throughout 2017, most remarkably in the states of Virginia, New Jersey and the very Republican Alabama.

Because of his unpopularity, 29 Republican Congress members — including eight veteran committee chair persons — have announced their retirement, thus vacating their seats and making them prone for contention. The Republicans enjoy a 24-member majority in Congress, making the possibility of their losing it to the Democrats very real.

If the Democrats retake Congressional majority, Trump’s chaotic administration will be crippled, as the Russia investigation closes on him and his aides. By then, Trump will be left with his Twitter account, and even then, his stay in the White House might not be long enough for him to post enough controversial Tweets.

- Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.