Pager and radio bomb attacks in Lebanon represent new threat: US analyst

By Can Hasasu

WASHINGTON (AA) - The pager and radio bomb attacks in Lebanon represent a new type of 21st-century threat that must be taken seriously due to their scale, said American geopolitical analyst Rich Outzen.

Outzen, a retired US colonel, told Anadolu in an interview Wednesday that while using explosives in cell phones is not new, the attacks in Lebanon were unprecedented in terms of preparation, method, and the concept of multiple attacks.

"Knowing that there are state actors out there who have the ability to do this on a large scale...that is new, and it may call for consultations among states about how to ensure greater accountability or how to ensure the safety of civilians in that environment. Whatever is the source for where these things come from, we have to pay more attention," said Outzen, warning that terror groups may try to do the same thing.

Noting that this sort of attack has been feasible, Outzen said: "Doing it at the scale and the scope would be hard to replicate for most groups, but it now has to be added to the list of considerations for sensitive sites, including airports, political headquarters and national leadership targets. So yes, it's a new risk for us all to worry about in the 21st century.”

In his remarks, he said "there's little doubt that Israel ultimately is behind the explosions in Lebanon" and characterized the attacks as "a non-military intelligence operation.”

"These intelligence operations overlap, oftentimes with conventional warfare, and they have certainly effects on major conventional warfare. But I doubt very much this was an operation that was carried out by the Israel Defense Forces, the military forces. This has the hallmarks of an intelligence operation attack," Outzen added.

He also said Iran has not formally declared war on Israel but has been fighting it through proxies, adding that "Iran does not have the commensurate or symmetric military and intelligence capabilities to what Israel has.”

- Supply chain aspect

Outzen said that in the US, the current thinking is on the supply chain of devices, noting that the Lebanese group Hezbollah recently received pagers from Taiwan according to media reports.

"It seems most likely that Israeli intelligence, either near the factory or en route in the shipping, got a hold of these devices and inserted some explosive materials that were then detonated upon receipt of a digital message," he said.

"And there have been reports from Hezbollah-linked sources in Lebanon that there was a code received on these pagers just prior to when they heated and exploded," he added.

Outzen said the West should pay particular attention to the supply chain aspect of the incident and noted that serious online trading companies will review their security measures in response to this event.

Describing the use of online ordering sites by malicious groups for terrorist attacks as a "real threat," he said: "People are going to have to understand that this threat is real, and that the idea that, again, especially with electronics, if you're ordering a case of bananas, or a grocery basket, it's probably not going to be as big a threat,"

"But I think security of deliveries of electronic equipment is certainly going to have to take on a different and a more serious form," he cautioned.

The death toll in Lebanon from the explosions of ICOM wireless communication devices Wednesday has risen to 20, with more than 450 injured, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health.

The latest toll comes after 12 people were killed Tuesday and around 2,800 others injured, 300 of them critically, in a similar attack involving pagers primarily used by Hezbollah.

The combined death toll from the explosions Tuesday and Wednesday has reached 32, with more than 3,250 injured.

The Lebanese government and Hezbollah accused Israel of carrying out the explosions, with Hezbollah vowing severe retaliation.

While Israel has remained silent, American media outlets including The New York Times and CNN reported that Israel planted explosive material on the batteries inside the pagers and other electronic devices before they reached Lebanon and then remotely detonated them.

*Writing by Servet Gunerigok