Palestine could face economic setback of 16 years due to Gaza conflict: Report

By Servet Gunerigok

WASHINGTON (AA) - The ongoing conflict in Gaza could set back Palestine’s economy by as much as 16 years, according to a report released Thursday.

Titled Gaza War: Expected Socio-Economic Impacts on the State of Palestine, it outlines a grim forecast for the Palestinian economy due to the comprehensive siege of Gaza by Israel, leading to severe economic disruptions.

It was issued by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA).

"A sharp decline is expected in the Human Development Index (HDI), setting the State of Palestine back by between 11 and 16 years, depending on the intensity of the conflict.

The report revealed that around 390,000 jobs have already been lost since the start of the war. It said early estimates indicate that the gross domestic product (GDP) loss in 2023 could range between 4% and 12% and between 4% and 9% of GDP in 2024 compared with pre-war estimates. These figures are dependent on the conflict's duration.

Poverty is also expected to rise sharply by between 20% and 45%, depending on the duration of the war, it said.

The economic impact of the conflict is expected to exacerbate humanitarian crises, including widespread displacement.

"The economic consequences of the war will have direct and indirect effects on the humanitarian situation, and vice versa, including large-scale displacement," the report said.

It also cautioned that economic recovery in Gaza following a cease-fire will not be immediate, citing large-scale destruction and uncertain access to resources.

"The regional impacts of the Gaza war are multi-layered and dependent on the scale and scope of the military escalation," the report warned.

The report also revealed that at least 45% of the housing stock in Gaza has been reportedly destroyed or damaged by Israeli bombardment.

"By 3 November 2023, at least 35,000 housing units had reportedly been completely destroyed, while about 212,000 units had been partially damaged," said the report.

Israel has launched relentless air and ground attacks on the Gaza Strip since a cross-border attack by the Palestinian resistance group Hamas on Oct. 7, during which it took dozens of hostages.

At least 10,569 Palestinians have been killed, including 4,324 children and 2,823 women. The Israeli death toll, meanwhile, is nearly 1,600, according to official figures.