Past, present and politics: Experts analyze far-right advance in EU heavyweight states

By Ahmet Gencturk

ATHENS (AA) – The underlying factors for the far-right surge in the recent European Parliament elections are multifaceted and too complicated to make generalizations, ranging from burning topics such as migration, security and economics to the lingering effects of the continent’s political history, according to various experts.

In France, Marine Le Pen and the National Rally capitalized on the sentiment that the traditional political establishment has failed to address growing concerns about immigration and security, said Emmanuel Comte, a senior researcher at the Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), a think tank based in Athens.

“Migration and security … are the primary factors that prompted the rise of the far-right (in France),” said Comte.

“These issues have been linked for some time, but Le Pen and (National Rally head) Jordan Bardella made this connection stronger.”

For Manos Matsaganis, another senior researcher at ELIAMEP and professor of public finance at the Polytechnic University of Milan, Le Pen’s gains and the decline of President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Renaissance party was already on the cards.

“What is surprising is the magnitude of Macron’s defeat,” he said, referring to the National Rally’s victory margin that was more than double of Renaissance’s tally, forcing the president to call a snap election.

Matsaganis also believes the European Green Deal, which prompted mass protests by farmers in France and other EU countries, has played a role in boosting far-right forces, having made life more expensive for many voters.

However, he emphasized that it would be “challenging to do anything to slow down climate change without making significant changes in the agricultural industry.”

“It’s obvious that the green transition creates friction, but to exclude agriculture from that will be self-defeating,” he said.

Stopping or delaying the Green Deal to appease certain segments would be more costly, Matsaganis warned, adding that the focus instead could be on redesigning it “to allocate the costs as equitably as possible.”

- Legacy of communism in eastern Germany

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) stole the headlines with a second-place finish in the EU elections, following a particularly strong showing in the country’s eastern parts.

Matsaganis sees this as a result of the socioeconomic divide between eastern and western Germany.

Despite the federal government’s massive spending for the convergence of eastern Germany with the rest of the country, people there still find themselves in “a rather rare situation, where they envy the west but can’t quite imitate it,” he said.

“They fear that they have this tantalizing experience in which prosperity is within the rich but not quite there yet,” he said.

“That must explain why anti-liberal, anti-establishment politics is so successful in eastern Germany.”

On the AfD’s standing in eastern German states, Comte said there is “also a distinct context which has to do with the legacy of German reunification.”

“AfD is a party that touches upon a segment of the German population that is poorer than the western German population, is more in competition with immigrants than the rest of the population, and is also expecting more from the government than the rest of the population,” Comte explained.

He asserted that the economic hardships caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war have further fueled resentment against establishment parties.

Regarding eastern Germany’s shift from the far-left Die Linke to the far-right AfD, he said it was in part a legacy of four decades of “a socialist state economy.”

“These two parties do not differ massively as far as economic policies are concerned. Both the radical left and radical right advocate for a central role of the state in the economy,” Comte added.

- Meloni’s march in Italy

One of the biggest winners of the EU elections was Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and her far-right Brothers of Italy party.

On the gains of anti-establishment and far-right parties in Italy, Matsaganis identified economic stagnation since the mid-1990s and a decline in the anti-fascist political denominator as the most important elements. ​​​​​​​

“The economic situation led to a strong sense of resentment, especially among younger generations which were left without prospects. That created a fertile ground in which anti-system political impulses emerged,” he said.

As to the ideological dimension, he drew attention to the indirect appreciation of national socialism or fascism, something which was “unimaginable until very recently.”

“If you want to stop these political forces from rising, you must come up with a new argument or express the old arguments in a better way, because the old reflexes do not work anymore,” Matsaganis added.

- Greece’s lackluster left

In Greece, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis and his center-right New Democracy (ND) party remained the dominant political force in the EU elections, despite a significant decline compared to their standing in last year’s general elections.

It was far-right forces, not the leftist opposition, that benefited from the ruling party’s underperformance, said Nikos Marantzidis, professor of political science at the University of Macedonia in Thessaloniki.

“Leadership problems in the main opposition Syriza and the social-democratic opposition PASOK have led to further fragmentation among the left and contributed to the supremacy of the New Democracy,” he told Anadolu.

On calls by some lawmakers and officials of Syriza and PASOK for a joint force against ND, he said it a more realistic prospect would be that the parties coordinate to “present a kind of common platform” in the 2027 elections, rather than “expecting or pushing for a merger.”

However, Marantzidis said he remains “pessimistic about the possibility of a united left in Greece.”

“There is pressure going to the top from the grassroots for this goal of unity of the left, but for the time being, the leaders of Syriza and PASOK, Stefanos Kasselakis and Nikos Androulakis, are playing a negative role,” he added.​​​​​​​