Political changes in Georgia: What do they mean for the country and region?

By Elena Teslova

MOSCOW (AA) – Georgia is in a time of political flux following the late January resignation of Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili.

Garibashvili stepped down after a nearly three-year stint in the top office, his second after a previous two-year tenure from 2013 to 2015.

He explained his resignation as a matter of necessity, saying it was for internal rotation within the ruling Georgian Dream party and to give others a chance.

Days later, on Feb. 1, the party elected Garibashvili as its chairman and unveiled its former head Irakli Kobakhidze as the candidate for the next premier.

Kobakhidze, who was the Parliament speaker from 2016 to 2019, told reporters immediately after that he plans to retain all ministers of the previous Cabinet, except for Defense Minister Dzhuansher Burchuladze, who would be replaced by Irakli Chikovani.

He said the main task of his government will be to lead the Georgian Dream to a “convincing victory” over former President Mikhail Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) party in the parliamentary elections scheduled for Oct. 26.

Georgia’s Parliament has 150 members, who are elected for a term of four years. Currently, 15 parties and nine independent candidates are represented in Parliament, with the Georgian Dream and UNM having 75 and 20 seats, respectively.

Georgian Dream, which has been in power since 2012, is aiming to retain power for the fourth time.

The elections hold particular significance for Georgia’s future course and the wider region.

In the eventuality that the UNM returns to power, observers expect a sharp turn toward the West, which will entail tectonic shifts in the region.

If Georgian Dream retains power, it will be forced to seek a compromise with the West and plans to join the EU and NATO.

In case its victory is not persuasive, experts predict protests and even street clashes in Georgia after the elections.

- Geopolitical significance

Strategically situated in the Caucasus, Georgia serves as a vital geopolitical link, connecting Russia to Türkiye and Armenia, as well as Azerbaijan to Türkiye, explained Gulbaat Rtskhiladze, head of the independent analytical center Institute of Eurasia.

“Given the complex dynamics between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and challenges in Azerbaijani-Iranian relations, Georgia’s communication routes, including its Black Sea ports, have assumed critical importance,” he told Anadolu.

“Positioned along the New Silk Road, Georgia’s transit becomes indispensable for Central Asian states, and even China under the Belt Road Initiative.”

For Russia, Georgia holds significance as a buffer, safeguarding it from the Caucasus region that has a turbulent past of numerous conflicts and wars, he said.

As for the West, Georgia stands as the sole Western ally in the region.

Since the early 1990s, the West has effectively cultivated political parties, media, and non-governmental organizations in Georgia, solidifying American and European influence, he said.

“For the West, surrendering this strategic foothold would signify relinquishing efforts to bolster influence in the region,” Rtskhiladze emphasized.

The expanding Western influence in Armenia and shifts in Yerevan’s foreign policy added to Georgia’s weight for the West, as “a pro-Western Georgia is crucial to fostering a pro-Western stance in Armenia, creating a geopolitical lever for exerting pressure on Baku,” he said.

- Reasons for political reshuffle

According to Rtskhiladze, the government reshuffles started in December last year with the return of Bidzina Ivanishvili, a prominent Georgian businessman and influential political figure, as an honorary member of the Georgian Dream.

“The curious silence from Euro-American diplomats following Ivanishvili’s return to politics hints prior consultations with the West. Keep in mind that Ivanishvili’s return is in conflict with EU recommendations on ‘de-oligarchization’ of Georgian politics,” he said.

The reshuffle in the government took place under Ivanishvili’s influence, no matter how much the ruling party denies it, the expert said.

He said Ivanishvili was wary of pushback against himself by “team members who, independently, without his direct participation, got rich and became successful.”

“Therefore, he showed these boys who is the party’s strongman,” he said.

If Ivanishvili made a deal with the West, then some significant concessions in foreign policy will take place, said Rtskhiladze, adding that Georgia will move more firmly toward the West.

He said ex-Premier Garibashvili had “recently begun to make too many critical remarks about the West … to strengthen the Chinese orientation in Georgia’s foreign policy and foreign economic activity.”

He added that Georgia’s financial dependence on the West in general, and the US in particular, increases the probability of shift to the West.

- No major shifts on Russia and Ukraine

For his part, Zurab Makharadze, co-founder of the Georgian Conservative Party, said incoming Prime Minister Kobakhidze is likely to pursue more West-friendly policies.

“Garibashvili allowed himself to do certain things that Kobakhidze would not do, that is, criticize Western politicians,” he told Anadolu.

Both Makharadze and Rtskhiladze, however, do expect major shifts regarding Georgia’s position on Russia and Ukraine.

“For Russia, I do not think that the economics will change,” said Makharadze.

“The average citizen in Georgia depends more on Russia than on the West. Everything that is produced in Georgia goes there, most tourists come from there, and most money transfers from Georgians abroad come from Russia.”

However, he asserted that Georgia’s “elite, NGOs and journalists … receive money from the West, (and) they are very dependent on it.”

According to Makharadze, for many in Georgia, the only image of the future that exists in the country is a Western image.

“When you ask a person in Georgia about their ideal life, the answer is, if we strongly generalize, ‘like in Beverly Hills.’ The Western is the only model of success we have,” he explained.

Western NGOs and other organizations also represent some of the few opportunities for socioeconomic progress for people, he added.

However, the part of society brought up on traditional values does not give importance to Western “promises of paradise” because “they are anti-Christian,” he said.

Both Makharadze and Rtskhiladze emphasized the importance of the Orthodox religion for the country.

Makharadze stressed that the “Orthodox religion remains a cornerstone, a uniting force that has preserved Georgia’s ethnicity and culture for centuries.”

“As Georgia looks towards its future, the dynamics of faith, identity, and geopolitical choices will play a pivotal role in shaping its narrative on the global stage,” he said.