By Ilyas Kemaloglu
- The author is a history professor at Istanbul's Marmara University focusing on Russian history and Turkish-Russian relations.
ISTANBUL (AA) - The causes, consequences, and possible outcomes of the Russia-Ukraine war are discussed here in three questions.
1. How did the Russia-Ukraine war begin?
Despite the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Russian Federation continued to increase its influence in the former Soviet region with various integration projects.
At the beginning of the 21st century, Russia became a regional actor again, especially in Central Asia and the Caucasus. But Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova caused some problems for Russia, while the importance of Ukraine for the Russian foreign policy has been undoubtedly quite different.
Ukraine has great importance for Moscow's plans about Orthodox and Slav nations, as well as due to its location between Russia and Europe. Russia has always been uncomfortable with Ukraine's rapprochement with the EU and NATO.
The popular revolts known as "color revolutions" (in 2004 and 2014), which targeted the pro-Russian government in Ukraine, adversely affected not only the Russia-Ukraine relations but the Russia-Western ties as well. Russia used referendums against Western-backed color revolutions.
As a matter of fact, in 2014, a referendum was held amid Russia's annexation of Crimea. In response, Russia was expelled from the Group of Eight and faced sanctions.
On Feb. 21 last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Moscow recognized the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine as independent states, and Russian troops were sent to the region.
On Feb. 24, Moscow announced that it launched a "special military operation" and entered the Ukrainian territory. According to Russian officials, they aimed to neutralize and disarm Ukraine and to ensure the safety of the Russian population living in the Donbas region.
Russia was expected to reach these goals in a short time. However, Ukraine's great resistance with the West's assistance to its ally caused the developments in Ukraine to turn into a war between Russia and the West.
On Sept. 23-27, the Ukrainian separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk and Russian-controlled parts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson held referendums on joining Russia. Russia has gained full control in Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, and clashes are heavily taking place in these areas currently.
2. What were the impacts of the war globally in 2022?
Since the start of the war, millions of people have been forced to flee Ukraine and thousands of people have been reported killed. A significant part of Ukraine has been partially or totally damaged. The Ukrainian people suffered the most. The Russia-Ukraine relations were damaged.
The Ukrainian crisis turned into a "war" between Russia and the West. The EU and the US have imposed sanctions on Russia and downgraded the ties with Moscow, while they have provided financial and military aid to Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and the West pushed Russia to turn to Asia in its foreign policy, economy, and energy. European countries' dependence on the US increased in energy, politics, and military.
The war in Ukraine led to the change of pipeline and railway routes and deepened the economic crisis in Europe. The conflict with Russia is now risking a third world war.
Some countries are now trying to solve their own problems by taking advantage of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, as the tensions between China and Taiwan in the Pacific stand out as the most notable example. The war in Ukraine put African countries at risk of grain shortages as they mostly depend on grain imports from Russia and Ukraine.
Through this process, people witnessed the ineffectiveness and failure of the UN and other international organizations, while Türkiye's success in its mediating efforts was appreciated.
3. What awaits the world in the Russia-Ukraine war?
There is no easy route to peace in Ukraine because the conditions put forward by both sides to sit at the negotiating table are contradicting each other. While Russia wants Crimea and other annexed regions to be recognized as its territory, Ukraine demands Russia's complete withdrawal from the area.
Moscow wants Ukraine to disarm and declare its neutrality, while Kyiv argues that Russia should pay war reparations. On the other hand, although the conflicts at the front line have waned due to different reasons, both Russia and Ukraine maintain their preparations for war for the post-winter period.
Either one or both warring sides must take a step back for peace. On the other hand, it seems that a step taken back now will not be understood by the people of any country.
The same goes for the West. If the Western countries cut their aid to Ukraine, it will be interpreted as the weakness of the West and its defeat to Russia. Therefore, all these are issues make it difficult to start peace negotiations.
But of course, Ukraine and Russia have to come to an agreement sooner or later. Peace in Ukraine depends on the agreement of the West, especially the US, with Russia.
The US-Russia meeting held in the Turkish capital Ankara showed that the war in Ukraine was one of the main topics of the talks. It is not a coincidence that such meetings are held in Ankara since today Türkiye is Russia's gateway to the world, making the most efforts to establish peace in the region.
It seems that in 2023, while the war is ongoing, the talks will be held at different levels.
The presidential elections in both the US and Russia in 2024 will definitely have an impact on the war. The Kremlin will solve the Ukraine issue before the elections slated for March 2024.
Moreover, developments in Ukraine have the potential to affect the elections not only in Russia but in the US as well, as happened in the EU countries.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.