LONDON (AA) – A new report underscores the significant risks that climate tipping points pose to Britain’s national security, warning that the government is not effectively addressing these threats.
The assessment, created by the Institute of Public Policy Research (IPPR), Chatham House, the University of Exeter, and the Strategic Climate Risks Initiative and released Wednesday, calls for immediate action to tackle these escalating challenges.
Drawing parallels with the COVID-19 pandemic, the report stresses that threats to national security can stem from non-malicious sources such as climate change, as well as hostile actions like terrorism and warfare.
The authors argue that the UK government’s current security strategies, including its national risk register, inadequately account for the profound dangers posed by climate change, particularly critical tipping points.
Laurie Laybourn, an associate fellow at the institute and the report's lead author, said climate change should not be viewed as solely an environmental issue.
"It already poses severe threats to our security. This is not widely appreciated," she said. "Like COVID, severe climate impacts can come out of nowhere, with effects that cascade across society, creating a larger overall problem than the sum of its individual parts."
The report identifies several climate-related risks already impacting UK national security, including energy security disruptions, public health emergencies, and potential food shortages.
These risks are expected to escalate as global temperatures continue to rise, especially with the international goal of limiting warming to below 1.5C now seriously at risk of being surpassed.
Among the most urgent concerns highlighted is the increasing likelihood of triggering climate tipping points – critical thresholds beyond which parts of the climate system experience irreversible breakdowns due to human-induced stress.
Particularly alarming is the potential collapse of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG), a system of ocean currents essential for the UK's climate stability. The report estimates that there is up to a 45% chance of the gyre collapsing by the end of the century, with potential consequences manifesting as early as 2040.