By Faisal Mahmud
DHAKA, Bangladesh (AA) — Since its establishment in 1985, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has generated significant hope among its member countries, which together represent over a fifth of the global population.
Its member states include Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, which together account for about 5.21% of the global economy, valued at around $4.47 trillion.
Originally established with the promise of greater regional integration and cooperation, nearly three decades later, the organization is largely stagnant, and South Asia is viewed as one of the most disconnected and underdeveloped regions in continental Asia.
Many believe that the intense rivalry between India and Pakistan—two nuclear-armed neighbors with a troubled bilateral relationship — is the primary factor behind the current inactivity of this once dynamic regional body.
In fact, the last SAARC summit, which Islamabad was scheduled to host in 2016, had been canceled after an attack on an Indian army camp in Uri, Indian-administered Kashmir.
Since then, SAARC has seen virtually no activity or initiatives over the past eight years, stemming in part from India's concerns about the organization’s effectiveness.
New Delhi, according to analysts, has long argued that the organization is too focused on political issues and has failed to deliver concrete results in areas such as trade and economic integration.
The country has also expressed concern about the slow pace of decision-making within SAARC and the lack of progress on key initiatives such as the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA).
In addition to these, India has been pursuing other regional initiatives, such as the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), which it sees as a more effective platform for regional cooperation, experts say.
BIMSTEC includes seven countries — Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand — all of which have interests in the Bay of Bengal.
- Talks for revival
Muhammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh's interim government, has emphasized the need to revive the "spirit of SAARC" to tackle recent regional challenges in South Asia.
He noted that tensions among members, which he believes obstruct regional cooperation and communication, could be significantly reduced if they could come together again under the SAARC framework.
Binoj Basnyat, a prominent strategic analyst and former major general of the Nepalese army, told Anadolu that SAARC is one of the key regional platforms the US administration is keen to support in its efforts to counter China.
He noted that Yunus' recent advocacy could be interpreted as reflecting US interests as a productive relationship between Pakistan and India could serve as a significant diplomatic strategy for the West against China.
Speaking to Anadolu, Mushahid Hussain, a former Pakistani senator from Islamabad, said that even if there were efforts to revive SAARC, India would likely only offer superficial support.
He accused India of being too invested in its rivalry with Beijing to offer real commitment to the organization.
Hussain argued that there were three reasons to why India has sought to undermine SAARC: Its feeling that it has outgrown its region and that it should compete with other nations on a global level, its hostility towards Pakistan, and its aversion to being associated with smaller South Asian nations.
Some analysts from India say, however, that it has been Pakistan's reluctance to cooperate with India that has pushed New Delhi out of SAARC.
Praveen Donthi, a senior analyst with the Brussels-based International Crisis Group, said that from India's perspective, Pakistan is not interested in opening its economy for mutually beneficial cooperation with India, and has instead resorted to obstructionism.
"New Delhi is trying to build relations with the neighboring countries directly in an approach described as 'SAARC minus Pakistan',"Donthi told Anadolu.
- BIMSTEC an alternative to SAARC?
Donthi mentioned that the seeming failure of SAARC pushed India to resuscitate BIMSTEC, an inter-regional forum, to further its strategic interests.
"It's become important for India to build its presence in the Bay of Bengal region due its strategic competition with China," Donthi said, adding that the platform could help New Delhi counter Chinese investments in the region.
BIMSTEC's potential, according to Donthi, is huge, as the region has roughly 22% of the global population with a combined GDP of over $2.7 trillion.
Shahab Enam Khan, professor of international relations at Bangladesh’s Jahangirnagar University, told Anadolu that BIMSTEC could serve as a promising regional alternative to SAARC, facilitating increased market, maritime, and energy connectivity among member countries.
However, the volatile situation in Myanmar “poses a significant concern in realizing the benefits of regional cooperation,” said Khan. Additionally, conflicts in the region are impacting the economic potential, from separatism in the northeastern Indian state of Assam to fighting in Myanmar near the border with Thailand.
It is worth noting that, though operational since 1997, BIMSTEC only adopted its charter in May of this year. Further, one of its seven member states, Myanmar, has been plagued by civil war since a coup in 2021.
The bilateral relationship between Bangladesh and Myanmar is at a historic low, as over a million Rohingya refugees from Myanmar have sought refuge in Bangladesh, while Myanmar has shown complete unwillingness to cooperate in their repatriation.
"So, under those circumstances, reviving SAARC would be a pragmatic foreign policy approach that prioritizes economic considerations over the securitization of political relationships among the South Asian countries," said Khan.
Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political scientist from Sri Lanka, agrees. “I don't think BIMSTEC is an alternative. It has an exclusive focus on economic cooperation, less emphasis on regional solidarity as envisioned in the SAARC,” he told Anadolu.
However, Uyangoda expressed skepticism that a revitalization of SAARC would come any time soon, noting that the key cause of its inactivity was the rivalry between India and Pakistan.
"This has given more importance to their bilateral tension than South Asian cooperation. India has Asian and even global ambition, while Pakistan seems to be more comfortable with its regional identity with West Asia rather than South Asia," he said.
"This needs to be addressed before any meaningful revival of SAARC," he added.