By Erbil Basay
BERLIN (AA) - Around 1.66 million voters in Germany's eastern state of Thuringia and 3.3 million in the eastern state of Saxony will go to the polls on Sunday, with possible implications for the fate of the federal government.
Pre-election polls in the two states show the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in first place in Thuringia and in second place in Saxony.
According to a poll conducted by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for the public broadcaster ZDF television channel, the AfD, which seems to be reaching 30% of the vote in Saxony, is behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which is in first place with 33%.
The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance - Reason and Justice - (BSW), which split from the Left Party, is in third place with 15%, while the German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Greens in the federal government reach 6% each.
The Free Democratic Party (FDP), the junior partner in the federal government, was ranked among the others in the polls due to its low share of the vote.
In Thuringia, with 29% of the vote, the AfD is far ahead of the CDU, which is in second place with 23%. In this state, too, the BSW is taking third place with 18%, according to the poll.
The Left Party came in fourth with 13%, while the SPD would likely manage to enter the state parliament with 6%.
Meanwhile, the Greens and the FPD would likely fail to pass the 5% threshold in Thuringia and remain outside the parliament.
- People in Saxony, Thuringia dissatisfied with federal government
The fact that the parties that make up the federal government, known as the traffic light coalition because of its colors, have not found enough support in two states shows the public's dissatisfaction with the government.
People react to this dissatisfaction by turning to the far-right AfD and populist parties such as the BSW.
Meanwhile, 76% of voters in Thuringia and Saxony disapprove of Scholz's work, while only 14% of voters in these states approve of his work.
In the past, the results of state elections have led to the end of the federal government in the country.
After the SPD and the Greens, who were in the federal government in 2005, were defeated in North Rhine-Westphalia, then-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said that he wanted to go to early elections and asked for a vote of confidence from the parliament.
After Schroeder failed to get a vote of confidence, early elections were held. Schroeder lost power in the general elections and CDU leader Angela Merkel, who won the elections, became the chancellor.
In 2018, Merkel announced that she would not run again for the CDU leadership and chancellorship in the general election after her party lost significant votes in the elections held in the state of Hesse in 2018.
Thus, the 16-year rule of then Chancellor Merkel, who did not run again in the general elections held in 2021, came to an end.
These past experiences make tomorrow's elections in Saxony and Thuringia important.
If the SPD and its ruling partners, the Greens and the FDP, lose votes in the elections in the two states, it remains to be seen whether Scholz will pull the plug on the government like his predecessors.
- Political observers see early elections as distant possibility
Political observers believe that the government will not end the government for two reasons.
First, there is less than a year to go until the general elections in September 2025, making early elections less likely. President Frank-Walter Steinmeier announced the date of the general elections as Sept. 28, 2025.
The second reason is that the parties in power see that in case of a general election to be held at short notice, they will not be able to reach the voting rates of 2021 general elections, which makes early elections unlikely.
For a possible early election, Scholz would have to lose a vote of confidence in parliament.
Many MPs, worried about not being re-elected, would not want early elections. The parties in the government will therefore try to hold on to power and turn the situation in their favor until the general elections.
As already seen in the European Parliament elections in June, the AfD and the BSW are gaining considerably in the eastern states, especially in Thuringia and Saxony.
- Forming governments in states will be difficult
If the AfD wins the most votes in one of the two states, as the polls predict, the party will have the most seats in a state parliament for the first time.
If the AfD reaches one-third of the seats in the parliament, it will have the opportunity to block many decisions and influence politics much more. In this case, there are also concerns that the AfD will block the appointments of judges and prosecutors in the judiciary.
However, since the other parties in both states have declared that they will not cooperate with the AfD, it will be difficult to form a government in the states.
While the CDU said that it would not form a coalition with the Left Party, the Left Party said that it would not form a coalition with the AfD.
Thus, the CDU will have to form a coalition with the BSW to secure a majority in the state parliaments.
Despite the CDU leadership's reservations about BSW, it has given the green light to a local coalition with BSW, considering the conditions in the eastern part of the country.
In Thuringia and Saxony, there is no other chance to prevent the AfD from becoming part of the government.
- AfD, BSW criticize government policy on migration, Ukraine
The AfD and BSW score points by criticizing the government's policy on migration and Ukraine.
The BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, criticizes European and US arms aid to Ukraine and wants Russia to be included in Europe's security architecture and trade with the country.
The AfD similarly criticizes Germany's arms aid to Ukraine and calls for the revival and intensification of trade with Russia.
MPs from both parties protested against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's speech in the Bundestag in June.
This position is supported by people in the former East German states of Thuringia and Saxony, which were under Russian influence during the Cold War.
On migration, the BSW demands an end to irregular migration and seeks the deportation of migrants who commit crimes, while the AfD wants to limit asylum seekers' access to the social system and end irregular migration through strict enforcement of the Law on foreigners.
These demands are gaining traction in the eastern states of the country, which are not so open to social change.
The AfD and BSW seem to be gaining votes, particularly in rural areas. This trend is expected to continue in the next general elections.
*Writing by Serdar Dincel in Istanbul