By Ali Canber Ozbugutu and Emir Yildirim
ISTANBUL (AA) - Global market estimates remain difficult as US President Donald Trump makes recession-easing statements and signs that he might back down from doubling steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada, while all eyes turn to the US inflation data to be announced.
While recession concerns over US tariffs on its major trading partners are on the rise, Trump said he does not “see it at all” when asked about the probability of recession on Tuesday.
Hours before the 25% steel and aluminum tariffs went into effect, Trump announced he would increase the tariffs to 50% on Canadian steel and aluminum. The announcement came following Ontario’s statements that Canada would impose 25% surcharge on electricity to US states.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made a joint statement on Tuesday. Ford agreed to suspend the 25% surcharge on electricity exports to Michigan, New York, and Minnesota.
Peter Navarro, Trump’s senior counselor for trade and manufacturing, said in an interview that there are no plans to raise steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada to 50%.
Concerns over inflationary pressures reviving due to Trump’s tariffs are still hot, while the Fed officials’ statements on being in no rush to cut rates continue to complicate estimates.
The money markets estimate that the Fed is 85% likely to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points in June.
The number of Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey open jobs increased to 7.7 million in January, above market estimates, pointing to the resilience of the labor market.
Analysts closely monitor news flow on new budget bill from Congress as the temporary budget is about to expire on Friday.
The US 10-Year Futures bond balanced at 4.27% while the US dollar index is at 103.6, up 0.1% on Wednesday.
Gold is following a flat course at $2,915 per ounce and Brent crude oil is up 0.2% at $69.8 per barrel.
On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell 0.76%, the Nasdaq 0.18%, and the Dow Jones 1.14%, while American futures started Wednesday on a positive course.
Meanwhile, all eyes turned to the European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech she will deliver on Wednesday.
The EU positively received the agreements reached following talks between US and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe’s below 2% of GDP defense spending needs to be above 3%.
UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said in a statement that London is negotiating a wider agreement with the US to remove tariffs.
The DAX 40 fell 1.29%, the CAC 40 1.31%, the FTSE MIB 30 1.38%, and the FTSE 100 1.21% on Tuesday, while starting Wednesday on a mixed course.
At the same time, Trump’s tariffs and the US-China trade wars have influenced Asian stock markets.
Beijing said it supports all efforts for a peaceful resolution to the Russia-Ukraine war, following the delegation meeting in Saudi Arabia, noting that China is ready to play a key role in this issue.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that clearly communicating with the markets will be decisive in the bank’s monetary policy moving forward.
Japan’s Producer Price Index was unchanged month-on-month in February but it rose 4% year-on-year, within estimates.
The Nikkei 225 rose 0.3% and the Kospi Index 1.4%, while the Hang Seng Index fell 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite Index 0.1%.
In Türkiye, the BIST 100 climbed 0.15% on Tuesday, while all eyes are on Wednesday's balance of payments data.
Economists responding to Anadolu’s expectations survey estimated that Türkiye’s current account deficit was $3.2 million in January and it will reach nearly $22.2 billion in 2025.
The US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate closed Tuesday at 36.5910, up 0.1%, and it is trading at 36.5990 on Wednesday.