By Merve Berker
Just a few days ahead of the US presidential election, polling averages indicate a close contest between the two candidates, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with both vying for leads in critical swing states, according to the Washington Post.
Polls across seven key swing states – Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan – are expected to be decisive for either candidate’s path to the White House.
Harris is leading in four of the swing states – Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, with the latest poll showing less than a one-point lead for Harris in Nevada and Pennsylvania.
Trump maintains a slight advantage in North Carolina, Arizona, and Georgia.
- Harris leading
In Nevada, Harris holds a razor-thin lead, estimated at less than one percentage point and the outcome could vary significantly, with potential margins from an eight-point lead for Trump to a nine-point advantage for Harris, according to the Washington Post.
Historical data reveals that polls in Nevada have sometimes underrepresented Democratic support; for instance, in 2020, Joe Biden was forecast to lead by five points but ultimately secured victory by a narrower two-point margin.
Pennsylvania presents a similarly tight race, with Harris leading by less than a point.
Historical data from past elections show that polling has occasionally underestimated Republican support here, with Trump in 2016 outperforming his projected numbers by nearly five points.
In 2020, polling suggested a Biden lead of four points, though he won by a narrower margin of one.
In Wisconsin, Harris holds a narrow two-point lead, though projections suggest the outcome could swing from a six-point advantage for Trump to a 10-point lead for Harris, highlighting the potential volatility.
Wisconsin’s polling history shows a pattern of underestimating Republican support; notably, in 2016, Trump captured the state despite trailing in pre-election polls.
This year’s results may follow a similar trajectory, depending on voter turnout and last-minute shifts in support.
In Michigan, Harris leads by a modest three points, although projections indicate the race could shift from a five-point lead for Trump to a 10-point advantage for Harris, reflecting the state’s volatility.
Past polling inaccuracies, such as in 2016 when Bill Clinton was ahead by four points but ultimately lost, underscore the challenges in forecasting outcomes in this battleground.
- Trump leading
Trump shows a slight advantage in North Carolina, holding a one-point lead.
Estimates in North Carolina vary widely, from a nine-point lead for Trump to a seven-point lead for Harris, according to the Washington Post.
Historically, polling in North Carolina has often underestimated Republican performance, as seen with both Trump in 2016 and Mitt Romney in 2012, who outperformed their poll predictions.
In Georgia and Arizona, Trump holds a narrow two-point lead in each state, though estimates range from a 10-point advantage for Trump to a six-point lead for Harris, while in Arizona, the possible margins extend from Trump by 10 points to Harris by six points.
Polling trends from prior elections show frequent underestimations of Republican support in these states, which could again play in Trump’s favor if similar trends continue.
- Final outcome highly uncertain
Despite Harris’ slight national edge, these close state-level averages mean the final outcome remains highly uncertain.
The Washington Post’s analysis emphasizes that these averages should be viewed cautiously, given the typical polling error margin of around 3.5 points. Historical comparisons from the 2020, 2016, and 2012 elections show that polling errors have sometimes led to significant underestimations, especially in favor of Republican candidates. If similar polling inaccuracies were to occur this year, it could shift outcomes in states currently leaning toward Harris or leave Trump with an unexpected advantage.
The poll data, compiled from national firms such as CBS News, Economist/YouGov, and ABC-Ipsos, shows a fluctuating trend since January.
Early polls often showed Trump in a stronger position; however, Harris gained ground following Biden’s decision to exit the race in July.
Since then, polling has shown a gradual tilt in favor of Harris nationally, but mixed results in battleground states.
- Polls, only snapshot of public opinion
Given that polling averages only provide a snapshot of public opinion at a specific time, campaign efforts in these final days could prove critical.
Both candidates are doubling down on key states, attempting to sway undecided voters and bolster turnout among their respective bases.
As history has shown, slight polling leads can quickly be overturned on Election Day, particularly in states with razor-thin margins.
Analysts advise that while Harris' current lead in polling may provide some advantage, the race remains highly unpredictable.
With every battleground state falling within the typical margin of error, either candidate could feasibly secure victory with a few percentage points' swing in their favor.
As Americans head to the polls, the final tally will reveal whether Harris’ slight national advantage and tenuous state leads will hold, or if Trump’s narrow edges in key states will secure his path back to the White House.
The 2024 election promises a close and intense finish, with each vote holding significant weight in determining the nation’s future leadership.
Battleground states are pivotal because the US does not directly elect its presidents. Instead, the process plays out via the Electoral College where 538 representatives cast their ballots in line with their states’ outcomes.
A candidate needs to secure 270 Electoral College votes to claim victory. Electors are allocated to states based on their population, and most states give all of their electors to whichever candidate wins the state in the general vote.