By Rabia Ali
ISTANBUL (AA) — As the war in Gaza enters its second year, experts warn that Israel’s military campaign in the besieged enclave has become a strategic disaster. Despite its overwhelming military power and devastating attacks, Israel is failing to achieve the key objectives it set out to accomplish.
Over 40,000 Palestinians have been killed, and Gaza lies in ruins, yet the goals of eliminating Hamas, crippling its military infrastructure, and securing the release of hostages remain unfulfilled.
“Officially, Israel started this operation to, one, rescue the hostages and, two, get rid of Hamas, destroy it militarily … and obviously, it hasn’t achieved either of those,” geopolitical and security analyst Zoran Kusovac told Anadolu.
- Hamas still ‘fairly operational’
While Israeli forces have inflicted significant casualties, the idea that Hamas has been decisively weakened is premature, according to experts. Andreas Krieg, an analyst of the Middle East and North Africa region, explains that Israel’s goal of neutralizing Hamas has fallen short.
“We reckon that … 40-50% of Hamas battalions have been decimated or killed. That doesn’t mean that these brigades are no longer operational,” said Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London. He emphasized that key units remain functional and continue to pose a threat.
“They (Israel) certainly killed a large amount of Hamas fighters. However, not enough to say that Hamas is anywhere near being operationally decimated.”
Kusovac highlights the complexities of fighting a guerrilla force like Hamas. “It is a typical guerrilla movement … in many occupied colonized countries, it is impossible to defeat the guerrilla movement unless you uproot the people and basically kick them out of the territory. The only efficient way of eliminating the guerrilla movement is called ‘scorched earth’ tactics.”
From the outset, Kusovac argues, Israel’s military planners knew this goal was unattainable. “It’s very interesting how the Israeli military let itself be dragged into this one-year-long operation without a clear military goal.”
He adds, “From the very beginning, the Israeli military surely knew that you cannot annihilate Hamas … without emptying Gaza of its population.” Even if Israeli far-right figures supported such a plan, he said, it would not be politically viable due to the refusal of neighboring Arab countries and the residents of Gaza.
- Hostage rescue: A ‘disaster’
Israel’s other key goal — the rescue of hostages held by Hamas — has been an unequivocal failure, experts say. Analyst Andreas Krieg characterizes the military approach to this objective as a strategic blunder.
“More hostages have actually been released through dialogue, discourse, mediation, in November last year than have been released through military means,” he said, pointing out that Israel’s military raids have often led to tragic outcomes. “Every time the IDF (Israeli military) has tried to release hostages … they usually killed the hostages.”
Krieg believes that non-military methods would have been far more effective in securing the release of hostages, a view shared by Kusovac. “If the real goal was liberation of hostages … that has not been achieved,” Kusovac said, adding that only a limited number have been freed, with the majority still in Hamas’ hands.
- Diminished capabilities but not defeated
While Israel has managed to reduce some of Hamas’ capabilities, the destruction is far from complete. Krieg notes that Hamas’ ability to launch significant attacks has been hampered by the devastation in Gaza, but its core military structure remains largely intact.
“The sheer destruction on the ground across the Gaza Strip means that much of the military structure that Hamas was using is now being destroyed,” Krieg said. “It makes it more difficult for Hamas to launch rocket attacks into Israel.”
However, Hamas’ tunnel network, a critical component of its strategy, remains a formidable obstacle. Just a third of the tunnels have been destroyed, and a lot of the tunnel systems are still operational and functional, Krieg added.
Kusovac agrees that while Israel has reduced Hamas’ ability to launch large-scale missile strikes, the group has not been wiped out. “Hamas has not been destroyed,” he concluded.
- Support for the resistance grows
Ironically, Israel’s efforts in Gaza may have backfired, leading to a surge in support for the Palestinian resistance, although not necessarily for Hamas itself. According to Krieg, the brutal conditions imposed on Gaza’s population have only fueled the resistance.
“The idea of resistance of Palestinians and Gazans, who have been through 12 months of torture and hardship, has now increased,” Krieg said. Israel has actually done the opposite of what it intended — fueling “the willingness of Palestinians to resist with violence.”
Kusovac reinforces this point, noting that Hamas leaders continue to report increasing recruitment. “Their recruitment is going well … this ordeal of the past year has been a very good recruiting drive for Hamas,” he explained.
- A ‘nightmare’ for Israel’s military
Experts agree that the protracted war has become a nightmare scenario for Tel Aviv. The Israeli army has suffered heavy casualties, and Hamas’ guerrilla tactics — relying on snipers, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and ambushes — have inflicted significant damage.
“This is also the most deadly war for Israel, and not just in terms of total number of soldiers killed, which is also significant — several hundreds — but also and more importantly, soldiers maimed,” said Krieg.
The group’s tunnel system under Gaza remains its “greatest center of gravity” in military terms, he said, with Israel’s inability to destroy the tunnels or gain the support of Gaza’s civilian population has left it fighting on two fronts.
“Israel is losing two major battles,” Krieg argued. “One is the physical battle against the tunnel system, and the second is losing the hearts and minds of people in Gaza, who are now willing to resist Israel if and when they have the chance.”
The second phase of the war, where Israel is attempting to hold and govern territory, presents further challenges. “You’re in a situation where most of the people on the ground do not want to cooperate with you. They want to attack you and kill you,” Krieg said. “That is the nightmare scenario for any military force.”
As Israel continues its operations, the war in Gaza looks set to become a long and costly struggle, with little prospect for a decisive victory.
"You're in a situation where most of the people on the ground do not want to cooperate with you. They want to attack you and they want to kill you.
“That is obviously the sort of nightmare scenario, because it’s impossible for a military to govern territory where the people don't want to be governed.”