By Iclal Turan
WASHINGTON (AA) - A former US ambassador and expert on the Middle East downplayed Washington’s recent move to relist Yemen’s Houthis as a specially designated global terrorist group, saying it is "mostly symbolic” and its impact "will not be very significant."
"My personal view is that it's largely political," Gary Grappo, who served as US ambassador to Oman from 2006-2009 and at the State Department's Bureau of Near East Affairs, told Anadolu.
"They had been designated as a terrorist organization during the Trump administration. And when Biden came into office, he lifted that designation primarily because with it in place, the ability to deliver humanitarian goods is severely limited," he said.
"And at the time, there was an urgent need -- in fact, there still remains an urgent need -- for humanitarian goods, food, medicine and other items to be delivered," he added.
Without the sanctions, it was far easier for both the US and other international organizations, including the UN, to deliver humanitarian goods, he noted.
"But I think now the tenor of the conflict has reached a point where the administration really feels compelled to redesignate them as a terrorist organization," he said.
The US on Wednesday announced the reclassification of the Houthis as a "terrorist organization” in a move that reverses a decision in 2021 to remove them from the US Specially Designated Global Terrorist List (SDGT).
Tensions have escalated in the Red Sea amid Houthi attacks on commercial ships suspected of having links with Israel.
The Houthis say their attacks aim to pressure Israel to halt its deadly onslaught on the Gaza Strip, which has killed at least 24,620 people and injured 61,830 others since an Oct. 7 cross-border offensive by the Palestinian group Hamas.
The US and UK launched airstrikes against Houthi targets in Yemen in recent days in retaliation for the attacks, which have created fears of a new bout of inflation and supply chain disruption.
The Red Sea is one of the world's most frequently used sea routes for oil and fuel shipments.
"I don't see where this is going to be that impactful against the Houthis," Grappo said.
"Moreover, they're going to be working with the Iranians, who have shown themselves to be pretty clever in avoiding American sanctions," he said. "So the impact here is mostly symbolic."
- Houthis remain ‘resilient’
Asked about the recent US strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, Grappo said the US wants to "tamp down" and eliminate the threat posed by the Houthis to shipping in the Red Sea.
Noting that about 15% of the world's trade moves through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, he said this is a "critical choke point."
"But given what the US has done so far, my suspicion is that the impact will not be very significant," he said, noting that the Houthis are a "very scrappy" and "resilient" organization.
"They withstood more than several years of war against Saudi Arabia and the (United Arab) Emirates when there are actual troops on the ground," he said.
Grappo thinks the Houthis will persevere, and whether they will continue to harass shipping in the Red Sea will depend on the level of US involvement there.
"The United States would have to significantly increase its involvement, and maybe even to the point of arming the other Yemeni groups to resume their combat against the Houthis," he added.
Drawing attention to the Houthis’ links to Iran, Grappo said they turned to Iran for support during the civil war in Yemen as they were combating the combined forces of Saudi Arabia and the UAE as well as Yemeni forces.
"Iran basically embraced them as part of this broader Axis of Resistance," he said.
With the recent attacks, he said, the Houthis are trying to demonstrate the "power and the influence of Iran" in the ongoing conflict in Gaza as well as the power that the Houthis have been able to accumulate.
- Threats to global trade
Grappo said the Houthi attacks will have far more of an impact on East-West trade between China, Korea and Japan and Europe, adding "the Chinese are watching the developments here very, very closely because it will impact them.’’
"This is a primary thoroughfare for sea commerce, whether it's natural gas and oil or goods and commodities, and will be very disruptive, particularly in East-West trade," he said.
Meanwhile the "workarounds," such as that vessels can go around the Cape of Good Hope at the tip of Africa, would add from 10 days to two weeks of transit time which, Grappo said, would be "costly."
"This is going to have an impact on the global economy," he said. "I don't think it's going to be at the point where the global economy will be severely disrupted."
"It just means a cost factor will need to be added, particularly when you consider that oil now has always faced these pressures since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine," he said.
"The only other impact that I see is on the economics of Egypt," he said, noting that Egypt depends very heavily on revenues they collect from Suez Canal traffic.