Oil prices drop amid Middle East cease-fire prospects, Fed rate cut uncertainty

Cease-fire agreement in Gaza likely, says high-level source via Cairo News Channel

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices fell on Friday as new cease-fire and prisoner swap talks began between Israel and Hamas, amid uncertainty over the timing of a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

International benchmark Brent crude fell 0.4% to $80.69 per barrel at 10.31 a.m. local time (0731GMT), down from the previous session's close of $81.04. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) decreased 0.5% to $77.84 per barrel, after closing at $78.16 in the prior session.

Both benchmarks declined following the start of talks in the Middle East, a region holding the majority of the world’s oil reserves.

According to comments reported by Cairo News Channel, citing a "high-level" source, there is a "genuine desire" from all parties involved in the latest cease-fire talks hosted by Qatar to reach an agreement on a cease-fire in Gaza.

The source said that the first day of talks focused on unresolved issues and the implementation of the agreement, with further discussions set for the following day.

The potential for a cease-fire eased supply concerns, putting downward pressure on prices.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the extent of the Fed’s interest rate cuts continues to weigh on the market. Analysts noted that strong retail sales data and a decline in unemployment claims on Thursday increased the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut in September, rather than a 50 basis point reduction.

However, expectations for a cumulative 100 basis point cut by the end of the year remain firm.


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