By Dr. Idlir Lika
- The author is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Ibn Haldun University
ISTANBUL (AA) — On Feb. 9, Kosovars headed to the polls for the sixth time since their country’s independence from Serbia. Unlike the previous ones, this parliamentary election was somehow different in that it was the first to be held regularly after the government was able to complete its full term in power. It was also different because the socialist government of Prime Minister Albin Kurti and his party, the Self-Determination Movement (LVV), had been previously elected in a landslide victory, giving him a powerful popular mandate to rule.
As such, the Feb. 9 elections served as a kind of referendum on the Kurti administration, as reflected in the high degree of societal polarization accompanying the vote. On the one hand, opposition parties — whose platforms and campaigns had little ideological focus apart from their rejection of Kurti — leveled strong accusations that LVV represented the worst administration that post-independence Kosovo has experienced, primarily because it alienated Kosovo’s indispensable Western partners — the US and the EU — through its unilateral actions and policies regarding Kosovo’s Serbian minority and Serbia proper. On the other hand, Kurti argued that his administration represented the best of post-independence Kosovo, citing its fight against corruption and media oligarchs and, most importantly, its efforts to assert sovereignty in the north of the country and dismantle the parallel structures run by Serbia.
- What do the election results mean?
The truth, as always, lies somewhere between these two extremes, and I believe that the preliminary results of yesterday’s election clearly point to this. According to preliminary data provided by Kosovo’s Central Election Commission (which unexpectedly had its own technical problems yesterday night), Kurti’s LVV managed to retain its primacy but suffered a significant setback of about 8-10 percentage points — falling from 50% to approximately 40-42%. The two main opposition parties — the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK), led by former Prime Minister Hashim Thaci (currently in The Hague), and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) — managed to improve their standing by a few percentage points compared to 2021, though they still fell short of expectations, while the Alliance for the Future of Kosovo (AAK), led by former Kosovo Liberation Army (UCK) commander Ramush Haradinaj, registered no improvement at all, remaining at about 7%.
Kurti will now need to form a coalition to continue his rule. It will take some time to determine the exact composition of this coalition, as all three main opposition parties ruled out any possibility of cooperating with Kurti in their pre-election platforms; however, in politics nothing is set in stone, and unlikely alliances can always emerge. The message of the Kosovar electorate is clear: They are granting Kurti another mandate to rule, but they now demand a more consensus-based approach rather than unilateral decision-making. That is what primacy with a 8-10% setback means for the LVV in this election.
In other words, the public, with its vote, conveyed the message that Kurti’s fight against corruption and most critically, his aim in asserting sovereignty over Serbian-run parallel institutions, are welcome and fair enough but they should not be pursued unilaterally but rather in close coordination with Western sponsors of Kosovo’s independence. In all likelihood, the presence of coalition partners from the main opposition parties will serve to moderate Kurti’s stance this time and push him toward more consensual policy making.
- What are the implications for Kosovo-Serbia dialogue?
Under these conditions, the results provide an opportunity for a fresh start in the EU-brokered Kosovo-Serbia dialogue. This time, it is hoped that Western actors will exert more effort to ensure a level playing field — one in which Kosovo is not bullied by Serbia and in which no double standards are applied toward the Vucic regime in Belgrade.
Stated differently, I think Western actors are pleased with the results of Kosovo’s elections and with the fact that they are going to face now a more moderate and constrained interlocutor in Pristina. However, they should apply the same standard toward the other interlocutor in Belgrade as well. Clearly, calling Kurti an “untrustworthy” partner — as Richard Grenell from the Trump team did a few days before the vote in Kosovo in what amounted to blatant election interference — while remaining silent about the month-long opposition protests in Serbia is not the right way to proceed. It is hoped that the Feb. 9 election will provide the incentive to somehow shift course.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.