By Anas Altikriti
- The author is CEO & Founder, The Cordoba Foundation, Hostage Negotiator and Mediator of 20 years
ISTANBUL (AA) - Questions surrounding the assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh are plenty and mostly unanswered, including how the operation took place, how culpable or slack the Iranians were and what kind of reaction one can expect from either Hamas or Iran in retaliation, and when.
However, arguably the most important question ought to be over the impact of the assassination on the ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza and whether or not it will bring the prospects of a cease-fire closer.
-Netanyahu seeking to expand the lines of war
In the case of war and conflict there are many rules, the most important of which is that you do not eliminate a party or an individual who has the authority to stop the violence and reach a cease-fire. Israel has broken that rule, and the impression is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his commanders not only find the cessation of attacks undesirable, but they are also actively seeking to avoid any prospect of stopping the war which has claimed the lives of tens of thousands of civilians, two-thirds of whom were women and children, in what many describe as a fully-fledged genocide and war crime.
Rumors swirling not only in Tel Aviv point to this being driven by Netanyahu's own desperation for political survival and to lengthen the military operation against Gaza so to avoid the prospects of standing trial for a catalogue of criminal charges which threaten to send him to prison for a lengthy term. Considering the Israeli context where daily protests are taking place demanding the cessation of attacks, the release of remaining hostages and the return of traumatized soldiers from front-line duty, those rumors sit extremely uneasy with those who side with Israel.
It is also clear to many that Netanyahu is actively seeking to expand the lines of war northward towards Lebanon, and to somehow engage Iran through a series of provocations, including this latest operation which embarrasses Iran to no end. In his desperation to prove to his own population, as well as to his main allies, that the past 10 months of death, devastation and utter carnage delivered on Gaza, have not been in vain, the opening of new war fronts will, in Netanyahu's estimation, shut up the critics and get the Americans and hopefully the Brits involved in actively defending "the only democracy in the Middle East." According to Netanyahu, should Iran, or even its proxy in Lebanon Hezbollah, engage militarily with Israel, the Western world will have no choice but to back Israel.
However, it’s a huge gamble, and only a man in the kind of desperate situation as Netanyahu finds himself, would consider it worth doing.
- Assassination of Ismail Haniyeh will prove a turning point
For more than 300 days, Israel has managed to malign itself to the world in ways that billions of dollars poured into public relations (PR) campaigns would never have succeeded in doing. In every country that is considered an ally of Israel, most of their people have decided that Israel stands in breach of international law and has committed a crime beyond anyone’s imagination. Israel’s arrogance and stubbornness in defending that crime has only led to even more on-the-fencers jump to the side of Palestinians against an untenable and indefensible Israeli position. The long-lasting impact and implication of this is terrifying to ordinary Israelis, adding further pressure on an increasingly politically embattled prime minister.
Whether the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh will prove a turning point in this ongoing catastrophe, remains to be seen. However, the fact that Israel under Netanyahu is unwilling to stop its killing crusade against the defenseless Gazans, despite its claim to the opposite, and its attempts to expand the borders of its hostilities to force Iran to engage, is beyond doubt. That will have both internal as well as global impacts of untold proportions on the present and future of Israel.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu