By Dr. Adam McConnel
- The author holds a master’s and PhD in history from Istanbul’s Sabanci University, where he taught Turkish history for nine years.
ISTANBUL (AA) - Ten days is all it took for an organized, well-trained military force to topple the Assad regime. Sure, propitious developments, such as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s assassination of Qasem Soleimani in 2020, and Israel’s destruction of much of Hezbollah’s fighting capacity in the previous months, helped.
But in the end, effective military training, unity in leadership, and updated battlefield techniques and weaponry enabled the Syrian opposition to roll over Damascus’ and Tehran’s combined forces in a bit more than a week. The unbelievable became real in a matter of hours.
Most analysts are rightfully focusing on the regional impacts of these stunning developments, especially for Iran and Russia, as well as Israel. Russia openly abandoned the Damascus regime in favor of its own interests while Iran’s regional stature – now exposed as a paper tiger – is in shambles. Iraq’s Shia population will now distance themselves even further from Tehran. Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s supply routes are permanently severed, so Israel is apparently rescued from that particular problem. Maybe the Lebanese will finally enjoy a modicum of domestic stability after the evaporation of Tehran’s influence? Maybe a decade from now, the past six or so years will be seen only as a pause in the Arab Spring, like a late April snowstorm, before the democratization current reasserted itself over the Arab world?
- Last 4 years laid waste to Washington’s regional policies
But as I watched the astonishing scenes of people liberated from Bashar Assad’s prisons over the past few days, [1] despite the bittersweet joy and confusion contained in those videos, one thought imposed itself on my mind repeatedly: one portion of those people’s lives was wasted in prison – and an untold number of lives were lost – because former U.S. President Barack Obama did not have the spine to do what was right a decade ago, and because U.S. policymakers had neither the information nor the capacity to comprehend what U.S. interests in Syria truly were.
Four years ago, U.S. President Joe Biden entered the White House asserting that the U.S. should actively involve itself in Türkiye’s domestic politics. His term as president, though, has not played out as he envisioned. Instead of the U.S. meddling in Türkiye, Ankara has steadily grown in prominence and influence across the entire region. The conflict in Ukraine made Türkiye a key actor and negotiator in the Black Sea and Eastern Europe; Türkiye’s support for Azerbaijan in Nagorno-Karabakh rectified a historical injustice and elevated Türkiye’s prominence in the Caucasus and Caspian Sea regions; Ankara became more involved in the Horn of Africa; and Ankara’s drone technology (among other defense products) made Türkiye a dominant global arms industry presence overnight. Then came Gaza and the conclusion of the Syrian Civil War.
Türkiye’s prestige at the street level in all Arab societies has been strong for much more than a decade, but the past year has added new dimensions. Türkiye’s resolute support for the Palestinians and its hosting of nearly 4 million Syrian refugees already illustrated Ankara’s moral approach to diplomacy. To Washington’s great chagrin, the Syrian conflict’s conclusion has ushered in a new era in Türkiye’s regional influence, and for Washington’s relationship with Ankara.
- PKK is next in line
As an American resident of Istanbul who has been writing about these issues for a decade now, I have focused on America’s Syria policy in many commentaries written for Anadolu.[2] The U.S. long ago lost any real influence over events in Syria, whether the Beltway, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), or the New York Times chose to recognize the situation’s reality or not. With Tel Rifat and Manbij liberated from the terrorist group PKK, the Free Syrian Army has already turned its attention to the regions east of the Euphrates River that remain under the control of the U.S.’ terrorist ally/proxy.[3]
This means that the U.S. will be forced to recognize that the end of the road has arrived for its foolish effort to create a statelet with a violent militant group. As I type, local residents in places like Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor have already taken matters into their own hands and risen against the terrorist group PKK, illustrating the complete lack of a demographic base for its Kurdish nationalist and Marxist-Leninist program.
Ultimately, the U.S. will be forced, in the coming weeks, to withdraw all American military personnel from Syria. How swiftly that happens is up to the Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration, but the quicker the better.
- Blinken on his way to a changed region
Washington’s shock was illustrated by the alacrity with which outgoing Secretary of State Antony Blinken was dispatched to Ankara. Because Blinken has only weeks left in his stint at Foggy Bottom, his journey will probably be more concerned with gathering information than making decisions. Trump has already indicated that he wants to end U.S. involvement in Syria, though it is still unclear whether he can force the Pentagon to do his bidding. No matter what the case is, the U.S.’ days in Syria are numbered.
Instead, Blinken’s most important conversations will probably concern Israel. The reality that has dawned on Tel Aviv and Washington is that Türkiye is now Israel’s de facto neighbor. The “Turkish model” that proved so effective in turning the Azerbaijani military into an effective fighting force had even more potent results in Syria. The victorious Syrian opposition groups have quickly turned their attention to the complicated project of resurrecting Syrian state institutions, providing services to Syria’s long-suffering citizens, and laying the foundations for a stable democracy. Finally, Syrians can begin to focus on the future.
Looming quietly in the background is the reality of Türkiye’s military presence, now the single dominant military force in the Eastern Mediterranean. Israel speedily expanded its occupation zone on the Golan Heights and carried out extensive airstrikes against Syria’s military installations for exactly that reason: they are well aware that, in a short period of time, they will no longer have freedom of action in Syria. A stable and democratic Syrian state, and its ally to the north, will be far more powerful than the Assad dictatorship ever was, and that means that Israel will no longer be able to abuse its Palestinian population with impunity.
In other words, Blinken will be given the message that calm and rational policymakers need to emerge in Tel Aviv immediately.
May it be auspicious for the entire region.
[1] https://x.com/sametdgn1/status/1865660048451457058; https://x.com/sametdgn1/status/1864803419636056081
[2] For example: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis-news/opinion-no-method-in-the-madness/811234; https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis-news/-turkey-s-new-regional-security-role-70-years-late/1350816; https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-turkey-and-russia-back-to-where-we-left-off-100-years-ago/1632709; https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/comparing-junctures-in-turkey-us-relations-august-1946-and-october-2019/1663453.
[3] We need to dispense with the U.S.’ dishonest euphemisms, such as “Syrian Democratic Forces,” created to “rebrand” the PKK. U.S. media, especially the New York Times, have provided cover for this malevolent effort, and even now continue the same policy: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/12/06/world/middleeast/syria-war-maps-control.html The region labeled “Kurds” on that NYT map is actually the PKK, but the Times has insisted, for the past decade, on referring to a violent militant organization – designated a terrorist group under U.S. law – as “the Kurds” because the Obama administration told them to.
*Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu's editorial policy.