By Mohammed Dhaysane
MOGADISHU, Somalia (AA) - A delegation from Türkiye and Norway arrived in Somalia this week to meet President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Muse Bihi Abdi, leader of the unrecognized breakaway region of Somaliland.
The Somali leader told Turkish Special envoy Aykut Kumbaroglu and Norwegian envoy Heidi Johansen that he is determined to resume talks with Somaliland.
The former British protectorate declared independence from Somalia during the 1990s, citing atrocities committed by the former military regime led by Mohamed Siyad Barre.
Omar Mahmood, senior analyst with Eastern Africa at the International Crisis Group, told Anadolu Agency that Somaliland is an issue that has been going on for more than 30 years.
He said the lack of resolution results in a limbo status, which in many ways holds the region back.
“It may not be the most pressing matter given the state of insecurity in southcentral Somalia, but generally it is an important fault line to resolve to ensure long-term progress,” he said.
The two sides have engaged several times in the past but never made significant progress on political positions.
Where progress was made was in detailing confidence-building measures that led the two sides to work together but implementation remained weak, according to Mohamod.
He said given the uncertainty around the political cycle in Somaliland, it is difficult to see how significant progress could be made at the current time -- but the unaligned political cycles have also repeatedly been an issue in the past, as it seems like one side is often heading toward an important election and distracted from investing in this process and making sustained progress.
“The biggest reason is that agreement reached was not implemented, which meant little progress was sustained and there was not much to build off of going forward,” he said.
The Somaliland opposition said Bihi has no mandate left to engage in talks with Mogadishu but the regional president traveled Wednesday to Djibouti where Mahamud has been for the last two days.
“Muse Bihi has no legitimacy or mandate to represent the people of Somaliland. He only represents his party, Kulmiye. Somaliland will deem negotiations with him as invalid and interference in its internal affairs. We have no problem with the five tribal regional states of Somalia,” Faysal Ali Warabe, an opposition leader in Somaliland, said in a statement after Bihi announced he is ready for conditional talks with Mogadishu.
Abdirisak Aden, former senior adviser to the Somali president and currently executive director of Farsigh Africa Policy Studies, told Anadolu Agency that Somalia and Somaliland authorities must resume talks in the interest of Somalis at large because Somalia and Somaliland face humanitarian crises and famine.
He said it is vital that authorities focus on Somali citizens' centric approach to the dialog so they can see a resumption of humanitarian and development cooperation. He said development assistance must not be politicized by Mogadishu.
“It seems President Muse Bihi faces an uphill task of entering a too-long-term agreement with President Hassan Sheikh Mahamud since Bihi faces opposition parties and he lacks a mandate,” said Aden.
He added that the current president in Mogadishu has a track record of promoting dialogue and is willing to comprise anything except the territorial unity of the Federal Republic of Somalia.
Anwar Abdifatah Bashir, a lecturer at Somali National University, told Anadolu Agency that the resumption of talks is always a good move and a way forward but he has concerns that the two sides are not willing to engage in good faith to achieve a peaceful resolution.
“The previous talks lacked goodwill from both sides, and without good intentions, nothing can be achieved. I think, they should negotiate seriously and frankly as well,” he said.
It will enable them to engage in the most important part of the deliberation, which is, fixing grudges and grievances, and that will lead to a common understanding of the agenda, he added.
- A neutral partner
Aden said Somalia needs a peace broker who it deems to be a good friend, like Türkiye.
Security analyst Mukhtar Ainashe agreed. He told Anadolu Agency that Türkiye’s leadership role in the process is essential to the success of the talks.
He said Türkiye has demonstrated that it is determined to help Somalis restore political and security stability, and economic prosperity through financial aid and massive scholarships.
“More importantly, the Turkish government and the Turkish people have immense political support and goodwill from Somali people,” he said.
That goodwill, he said, is an asset that Turkey could capitalize on to gain broader influence in the talks and as a result, make them successful.
He said Somalia was isolated for decades and just a few heads of state visited for years. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan broke political and psychological barriers which helped open Somalia when he visited in 2011.
“He did not only bring Turkish government officials but he brought his family. Somalis love and admire President Erdogan,” he said.
He added that he believes there is no better-suited country than Türkiye that could play a mediator and a leadership role in the talks.