UPDATE - Iran election: Who is in the race and who is likely to reach the finish line?

Snap presidential election to be held on June 28 after death of President Raisi

UPDATES WITH MORE DETAILS

By Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN, Iran (AA) - On the penultimate day of registration for Iran's upcoming presidential election, more than 20 hopefuls filed their nominations, including some prominent political figures.

Bagher Ghalibaf and Eshaq Jahangiri were the most prominent applicants on Monday, who are likely to face each other in the ultimate showdown if the Guardian Council approves their candidacies.

Ghalibaf, a top conservative figure, was re-elected as the parliament speaker last week. Jahangiri, a top reformist figure, served as the first vice president in the Hassan Rouhani government.

Since the registration process opened on Thursday at the Interior Ministry in Tehran, the nomination papers of 37 candidates have been accepted, including 20 on Sunday.

More than 100 other applications were rejected for not meeting the requirements.

The snap presidential vote is scheduled for June 28, following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on May 19.

Monday is the fifth and final day of registration. After that, the Guardian Council, the country's election supervisory body, will vet the candidates and release the list of qualified candidates on June 11.

The candidates cleared by the vetting body will have two weeks to campaign, present their manifestos, and participate in televised debates before the polling on June 28.


- Frontrunners

The candidates who have filed their nominations so far include some high-profile names from both the conservative and reformist camps, as well as centrists.

One of the first candidates to join the race on the first day of registration was Saeed Jalili, a former nuclear negotiator and head of the country’s top security body.

Only five applications were accepted on day one out of 30, including Jalili, a prominent conservative figure who said his focus would be on “service, honesty, efficiency, and justice.”

Jalili contested the 2021 presidential election but withdrew in favor of Raisi. In the 2013 presidential election, he finished in third place after eventual winner Hassan Rouhani and runner-up Ghalibaf.

While Jalili is seen as a probable candidate representing the conservative camp, Ali Larijani, a former speaker of Iran’s parliament, is believed to have the backing of the reformist camp.

Larijani, initially a conservative political figure, developed close ties with reformists during Rouhani's presidency when he served as the parliament speaker.

Notably, Larijani, who is a member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a top advisory body tasked with settling disputes, was disqualified by the Guardian Council in the 2021 presidential election.

After filing his nomination on Friday, he told reporters that “solving the issue of sanctions” will figure prominently in his priorities, if given the mandate.

Other formidable candidates who could spring a surprise include Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a candidate in the 2021 presidential election who later withdrew in favor of Raisi.

Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former top banker and Raisi’s main challenger from the reformist camp in the 2021 election, is likely to be a cover candidate for other heavyweight reformists like in the past.


- Conservatives

The last day of aspirants to enter the presidential race saw the entry of parliament speaker Ghalibaf, who vowed to “wholeheartedly strive to solve problems.”

Speculation had been rife since Sunday about Ghalibaf joining the race for the presidency after he said that many lawmakers had asked him to register for elections.

A veteran conservative political figure and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Ghalibaf was reelected as parliament speaker on May 28.

He contested presidential elections on multiple occasions but without success. In the 2013 presidential election, he lost to Rouhani and finished second.

In 2017, Ghalibaf filed his candidacy again but eventually withdrew in favor of Raisi, who also lost to Rouhani.

In the 2021 presidential election, when he was serving his first term as parliament speaker, the former Tehran mayor decided not to contest and supported Raisi.

With Ghalibaf filing his nomination, experts believe Jalili’s chances of making it to the finish line have become bleak.

Tehran Mayor Zakani is also likely to withdraw in favor of Ghalibaf.

Jahangiri’s candidacy has also dimmed the prospects of other reformist hopefuls, according to election observers, provided the Guardian Council greenlights it.

Jahangiri, speaking to reporters after filing his nomination on Monday, emphasized that solving problems must be achieved through consensus among all pillars of the system.

He said Iran faces a “complex situation” and people are grappling with “hardships,” adding that the achievements made have not created a sense of growth and development.


- Disqualifications looming

After the registration process ends on Monday, the applications of hopefuls will be reviewed by the 12-member election supervising body, the Guardian Council.

According to political observers, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president who filed his nomination amid fanfare on Sunday, is again likely to be disqualified.

Ahmadinejad, a conservative hardliner who served as Iran’s president from 2005 to 2013 and later fell out of favor with the country's top leadership, was disqualified in both the 2017 and 2021 presidential elections.

After filing his nomination, Ahmadinejad said the country's problems could be solved by making the “maximum use of available capacities,” adding that he was joining the race again "at the request of the people.”

There is also a big question mark over Larijani’s candidacy, who was disqualified in the 2021 presidential election when Raisi won by a landslide.

Many others who have successfully submitted their nominations are also expected to be disqualified, including many former lawmakers and academics.


- Unlikely candidates

There have been some unexpected nominations as well. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the registration of Zohreh Elahian, a former member of parliament who became the first woman to run for the presidency.

She announced that her election slogan would be "healthy government, healthy economy, and healthy society.”

Vahid Haqqanian, the former deputy head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office, was another unlikely candidate to file his papers on Saturday.

He insisted that he was running in a “personal capacity."

Mohammad Mehdi Esmaeli, the culture minister in the Raisi government, filed his nomination on Sunday, surprising many election watchers.

He was flanked by Raisi’s close aide and executive deputy Mohsen Mansouri. Esmaeli said he wants to continue on the path charted by the Raisi government.

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