By Riyaz ul Khaliq
ISTANBUL (AA) – Prabowo Subianto, a former military general, seems all set to be Indonesia’s next president, with initial results of the Feb. 14 elections placing him well ahead of his two rivals.
The ‘Quick Count’ sample results show Subianto, the current defense minister, winning with over 55% of the vote. Official results are due to be announced by March 20, 35 days after the elections.
A former nemesis of incumbent President Joko Widodo, Subianto lost twice to the popular president, who is known as Jokowi, before becoming the defense chief after the 2019 polls.
Observers and political activists expect Subianto to continue the policies of Jokowi, whose decade-long reign saw Indonesia’s infrastructure and economy grow significantly.
Effendi Gazali, a researcher at Salemba School at the Institute for Media and Political Literacy in Jakarta, believes Subianto is a “mature politician” who has “successfully read the political, social, cultural, economic, and education background of Indonesian people or voters.”
Subianto “is now seen as a figure who could continue the success of Joko Widodo,” Effendi told Anadolu from the Indonesian capital.
Given the outgoing president’s popularity, Subianto “strategically chooses a position to be ‘a continuation’ of Joko Widodo,” Effendi said, referring to the defense minister’s decision to run together with Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, whose nomination also raised eyebrows.
Regina Vianney Ayudya, who is running for a parliament seat, told Anadolu that no one can “turn a blind eye to the success” of Jokowi from 2014 to 2024.
Regina represents the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, the party that backed Jokowi in the past two elections.
“But this is not one’s man success story. It is our success story as one united nation,” she said.
- ‘Soldier to president’
Prabowo, 72, claimed victory late on Wednesday after a few hours of counting, but insisted: “We should not be arrogant. We should not be proud. This victory must be a victory for all Indonesian people.”
Remembered as strongman military general from before Indonesia reformed to become a democracy a quarter century ago, Subianto has pushed hard to reshape his image.
He is now seen as a “grandfather figure” and many people have sympathy for him, said Franka Soeria, a fashion consultant and entrepreneur.
“Subianto is single, has a cat and lost (presidential elections) twice but has not given up … He wears youth outfits, dances, uses catchy songs and artificial intelligence mixed with social media as well as entertains people,” Franka told Anadolu.
“All this helped him with young voters … Even his young, charismatic, energetic, ever-present bodyguard is idolized by his fans.”
Of the over 204 million people who were eligible to vote in Indonesia, more than 56% were aged 40 or below.
Born in 1951, six years after Indonesia gained independence from Britain, Prabowo belongs to one of Indonesia’s political families.
His father, prominent Indonesian politician Sumitro Djojohadikusumo, had to flee the country after turning against then-President Sukarno, with whom he worked as a minister.
Living in exile helped Subianto master various languages, and he speaks French, German, English and Dutch, besides Bahasa.
Sumitro and his family returned to Indonesia under the regime of General Suharto.
Soon after his return, Subianto joined Indonesia’s Military Academy and graduated in 1974, and has since served for nearly three decades.
He operated as commander of the Indonesian National Army Special Force in today’s East Timor. Before becoming a separate nation in 2002, the region was known as Timor-Leste.
Human rights groups accuse Subianto of rights violations against the people of then-Timor-Leste, and he was eventually banned from travelling to the US until 2020.
He has rejected the allegations and was never charged.
According to Effendi, the researcher, Subianto is “now a senior political figure in Indonesia who has successfully changed his political image.”
Most of the voters are “millennials or young voters, who may not know about what happened during the past,” he said.
- ‘Jokowi 3.0’
Regina, whose party supported former Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, said that no matter the winner, “we all want the same thing, for Indonesia to become one of the global strong players by 2045.”
She believes Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle will emerge as the largest opposition in parliament, which is “good for our society as it will ensure checks and balances.”
Effendi said Subianto will follow in the footsteps of Jokowi in forging alliances for his government, “inviting or including many potential figures from different parties, including from different presidential candidates, to fill the vacuum (created after Jokowi leaves the office).”
The new president will assume office in October when Jokowi completes the second of his two five-year terms.
He said Subianto has conveyed his intent to “run a government which includes many potential figures from any parties or groups.”
With Indonesia being a regional player maintaining a balance between rivals US and China, Effendi said it was important that Subianto is a “good handler of international issues.”
His “experiences … would help him to navigate the big power rivalry in Asia-Pacific,” he said.
Regina said whoever is the next president she expects the policy of “free and active” to continue, meaning that Indonesia will not take sides and act based on global stability and the nation’s interest.
“It is not about taking sides. We can work together without taking sides," she asserted.
She added that Indonesia will also explore the benefits from the Blue Dot Network initiated by the US, Japan and Australia on infrastructure development in the region.
- ‘Flawed democracy’
Indonesia is the world’s third-largest democracy and largest Muslim-majority nation on the globe.
It was classified by the Economist Intelligence Unit among “flawed democracies” in a report released on Friday.
Ubedilah Badrun, a sociopolitical analyst at Jakarta State University, believes Subianto’s win “would be a democratic disaster” for Indonesia.
“Because the person who won the election was a person whose candidacy involved a process that seriously violated ethics,” he said.
The nomination of Jokowi’s son Gibran had to pass through the Constitutional Court, because he was under the minimum age of 40 that a person has to be to run for the country’s top two positions, president and vice-president.
The court said Gibran was eligible for the vice-presidency because he had previously served a public officer.
Despite the projections of Subianto’s win, Ubedilah insisted the final results will lead to a runoff.
He said any potential Subianto government “will tend to have a lot of problems, especially since the previous government left behind very serious problems regarding widespread corruption, democracy, a stagnant economy, ballooning national debt.”
“Indonesian democracy is really experiencing setbacks,” he added.
However, Effendi said many of Indonesia’s voters say “they need a strong and strict leader.”
“We just need to see that Subianto would develop more democratic discussions (liberative conversation) with stakeholders,” he said.