SIPRI Yearbook 2024: Global nuclear arsenal growth raises concerns

By Aysu Bicer

LONDON (AA) – The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its annual assessment of global armaments, disarmament, and international security on Monday, highlighting a concerning rise in nuclear weapon development and deployment.

According to the SIPRI Yearbook 2024, the reliance on nuclear deterrence has deepened, with nine nuclear-armed states modernizing their arsenals and deploying new nuclear-capable systems.

As of January 2024, the global inventory of nuclear warheads is estimated at 12,121, with about 9,585 of these in military stockpiles ready for potential use.

Of these, 3,904 warheads are deployed on missiles and aircraft, marking an increase of 60 from the previous year.

Furthermore, approximately 2,100 of the deployed warheads are on high operational alert, with the majority belonging to Russia and the US, though China is thought to have some warheads in this state for the first time.

SIPRI Director Dan Smith expressed concerns over the findings, saying, "While the global total of nuclear warheads continues to fall as Cold War-era weapons are gradually dismantled, we are seeing year-on-year increases in the number of operational nuclear warheads."

Smith stated: "This trend is likely to continue and probably accelerate, which is extremely worrying."

The report underscores the ongoing modernization efforts of the nine nuclear-armed states— the US, Russia, UK, France, China, India, Pakistan, North Korea, and Israel.

India, Pakistan, and North Korea are notably advancing their capabilities to deploy multiple warheads on ballistic missiles, a capacity already possessed by Russia, France, UK, US, and more recently, China.

Despite the overall stability in the size of their respective military stockpiles, Russia is estimated to have increased its deployed operational warheads by approximately 36 since Jan. 2023.

Transparency regarding nuclear forces has significantly declined in both Russia and the US following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in Feb. 2022.

This lack of transparency has heightened debates over nuclear-sharing arrangements.

Additionally, several public claims were made in 2023 about the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory.

However, SIPRI notes that there is no conclusive visual evidence to confirm the actual deployment of these warheads.

Besides their military stockpiles, both Russia and the US each hold more than 1,200 warheads retired from military service, which they are gradually dismantling.

- ‘China expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country'

According to their latest estimates, China’s nuclear arsenal has seen an unprecedented increase from 410 warheads in Jan. 2023 to 500 in Jan. 2024, marking the fastest growth rate among nuclear-armed states.

This expansion reflects China's strategic shift, as it reportedly deploys a small number of warheads on missiles during peacetime, a first for the nation.

Hans M. Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), highlighted this rapid growth.

"China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country," Kristensen said. "But in nearly all of the nuclear-armed states, there are either plans or a significant push to increase nuclear forces."

According to projections, by the end of the decade, China could have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as Russia or the US.

However, its total warhead stockpile is expected to remain smaller than that of the two leading nuclear powers.

The UK, despite not increasing its nuclear weapon count in 2023, has plans to expand its arsenal.

Future growth is expected following the British government's decision in 2021 to increase the warhead limit from 225 to 260. The UK also announced that it would no longer publicly disclose the quantity of nuclear weapons it possesses, including deployed warheads and missiles.

France continued its efforts to modernize its nuclear capabilities in 2023, focusing on the development of a third-generation nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile. Additionally, it is refurbishing and upgrading existing systems.

In South Asia, India slightly expanded its nuclear arsenal and continued developing new nuclear delivery systems.

While Pakistan remains the primary focus of India's nuclear deterrent, there is a growing emphasis on long-range weapons capable of reaching targets throughout China.

Pakistan, too, has advanced its nuclear delivery systems, reflecting the ongoing arms race in the region.

North Korea remains a critical player in the global nuclear arena, with SIPRI estimating that the country now has around 50 assembled warheads and enough fissile material to potentially increase that number to 90.

Despite no nuclear test explosions in 2023, North Korea conducted its first short-range ballistic missile test from a rudimentary silo and developed at least two new types of land-attack cruise missiles designed for nuclear delivery.