Smog adds to climate woes of Pakistan’s fragile agriculture

By Aamir Latif

LAHORE, Pakistan (AA) — A thick pall of smog that blanketed large areas in northeastern and northwestern Pakistan last month has largely dissipated, providing some relief to frustrated citizens suffering from sore throats and itchy eyes.

However, its adverse effects are expected to linger, with repercussions for food inflation and agricultural exports in the coming months.

The combination of smog and smoke began enveloping major parts of northeastern Punjab province — the country’s breadbasket — and northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in late October and persisted until the third week of November. This not only exposed thousands to airborne diseases due to poor air quality but also caused severe damage to vegetable crops and other produce.

Nearly 50% of the vegetable crops in Punjab, which accounts for 60% of Pakistan’s total agricultural exports, have been destroyed by the smog, according to Shaukat Ali Chadhar, president of the Kisan Board of Pakistan, a non-governmental agricultural advisory and research organization.

Along with the Indian capital New Delhi, Pakistan’s second-largest city, Lahore, and various other districts in Punjab have consistently ranked among the world’s most polluted cities for several years, with their air quality breaching all possible danger levels.

Speaking to Anadolu, Chadhar said seasonal vegetables, mainly potatoes, peas, and tomatoes, have suffered from the smog, causing huge losses to farmers.

“It has not only caused financial losses to the farmers but it’s negative impact on general public has already started to surface in the form of soaring vegetable prices, particularly in the big cities,” he noted.

He added that while crops like maize and sugarcane have also been affected, the damage is less severe as these crops can recover once sunlight returns.

“Smog impacts crop growth and development at different levels like soil moisture uptake, shoot growth, and photosynthesis, which results in total destruction of short-term crops,” he explained.

Agriculture employs 38% of Pakistan’s population of over 240 million and contributes 23% of the country’s gross domestic product.

- Citrus fruit exports likely to decline further

About 70% of Pakistan's exports are directly or indirectly linked to agriculture.

Among the agricultural products impacted by climate change is the mango, one of the country’s most prized exports. Mango production has declined for three consecutive years, primarily due to climate-related factors.

Exporters warn that the country is also likely to see a 35% drop in production of its famed kinnow citrus fruit this season, largely due to a combination of smog and fog.

Punjab’s Sargodha district, renowned for its citrus fruits — including kinnow, oranges, and lemons — is among the world’s top citrus-producing regions. However, climate change, along with aging orchards, has caused Pakistan’s citrus exports to plummet by 50% over the past five years, according to Waheed Ahmed, head of the Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association.

Pakistan’s kinnow export target for this season has been set at 250,000 tons — 50,000 tons less than last year and 50% lower than five years ago, Ahmed told Anadolu.

“The production and quality of kinnow is being affected to an alarming extent due to climatic effects. Kinnow season is also delayed due to prolonged heat and late arrival of cold weather while, on the other hand, production is expected to be less by 35%,” he explained.

As a result of reduced production, Ahmed predicts a 10% increase in local kinnow prices this year.

Chadhar echoed Ahmed’s concerns, noting that Pakistan’s citrus crop, especially kinnow, has also been severely impacted by a viral disease over the past year.

Beyond agricultural losses, he highlighted that the Punjab government fined farmers 2 billion Pakistani rupees (about $7.2 million) for burning stubble to clear fields for the next crop during the past month.

“Instead of controlling the real smog-causing factors like vehicular emissions, the government is targeting already financially-burdened farmers for burning stubble, which makes up only 3% of air pollution,” he said.

- New varieties needed

Ahmed pointed out that Pakistan’s variety of kinnow is 60 years old and increasingly unable to withstand diseases and adverse weather conditions, while no variety globally remains viable for more than 25 years.

For the past 10 years, he went on to say, his association has been urging the provincial and federal authorities to “promote research and development and plant new varieties of kinnow in new areas.”

“But no attention has been paid,” he lamented, adding that this has led to a sharp decline in exports.

“A combination of prolonged heat waves and late arrival of winter have already delayed the kinnow production for this season by two weeks, affecting its sweetness, moisture and quality,” Ahmed added.

He warned that if three to four new kinnow varieties are not urgently developed, Pakistan’s exports of the product could cease entirely within three years.

With over 100 kinnow processing plants already shut down due to financial losses, the livelihoods of 300,000 people and investments worth 300 billion rupees in the industry are at serious risk, he cautioned.