Tripling renewables, doubling efficiency goal to be in final COP28 text, more countries likely joining: IEA chief

By Nuran Erkul

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AA) – Pledges to triple global renewable capacity and double energy efficiency by 2030 will likely be included in the final text of negotiations at COP28, with more countries joining in over the coming days, according to Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Renewable energy capacity across the world is already growing very fast on a way to more than doubling, Birol told Anadolu on the sidelines of the 2023 UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE).

A total of 118 countries, including the COP28 host UAE, US, Brazil, Japan, UK, Mexico, Poland, Germany, Australia, Canada, Denmark, France, Kenya, the Netherlands, Nigeria and Spain signed a pledge on the third day of the summit to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency by the end of this decade.

“Even without such a commitment, global renewable energy capacity will more than double by 2030, according to our estimates. We proposed tripling of it and over 100 countries have agreed on this,” Birol said.

Tripling global renewable energy capacity means the world needs to reach 11,000 gigawatts by 2030.

According to energy think tank Ember’s calculations based on net-zero scenarios of the IEA and the International Renewable Energy Agency, annual renewable installations are expected to reach about 500 gigawatts in 2023, placing the renewables capacity at 3,870 gigawatts at the end of this year.

To achieve the tripling objective, roughly 7,000 gigawatts have to be installed in seven years.

If the goal is met, the share of renewable sources in global electricity generation is expected to reach 60% by 2030, a major jump from 30% in 2022.

Tripling renewables and doubling efficiency will deliver 85% of the cuts in fossil fuels required by 2030, while by 2035, renewables and efficiency will alone more than halve total carbon emissions, according to Ember estimates.

“There are a few countries left that have not signed the commitment and I think they will sign in the coming days,” the IEA executive director said.

Among these countries are China, the world leader in clean energy technologies, India, Türkiye and South Africa.

“And I believe both goals, tripling renewables and doubling energy efficiency efforts, will be included in the final text of climate negotiations,” he added.

Climate negotiations are ongoing among delegates on a draft, with the final text expected to be out on the summit’s last day.

At COP27 in Egypt’s Sharm el-Sheikh last year, negotiations ended more than 36 hours later than expected due to some contentious issues.

Countries agreed for the first time to “phase down” coal use in the final text issued at COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland.

The wording was changed from “phase-out” at the last minute due to opposition by major coal users India, China and South Africa.

There is a similar problem with wording in the ongoing COP28 negotiations on fossil fuel phase-out or phase-down.

It remains to be seen what final text will be read out by this year’s president, Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, whose own position on the phase-out and phase-down of fossil fuels is one of the hottest topics at the summit.

- ‘Capital is not a problem for the world’

According to Birol, the world cannot reach its climate targets while continuing to burn fossil fuels at the current levels, even if the renewable energy capacity grows fast and energy efficiency improvements accelerate.

Committing to measures that ensure a decline in the use of fossil fuels, including an end to new proposals of unabated coal-fired power plants, is critical, he emphasized.

“We need to see a rapid decline in fossil fuels, while increasing renewables. Additionally, COP28 needs to ensure the establishment of necessary financial mechanisms for developing countries to access investments in clean energy technologies. I see these two as the most important conditions for COP28 to deliver a successful outcome,” he said.

Birol said the world has more than enough capital for such large-scale renewable investments, and he hopes that wealthy nations and financial organizations like the World Bank and IMF take necessary measures to boost clean energy investments in developing countries.

“Capital is not a problem for the world. The main point is how governments will make these investments more attractive for investors. Countries that are successful at this are getting very good results,” he said.

Since the ratification of the Paris Agreement at the 2015 climate summit, clean energy investments have increased by almost 100%.

“To achieve the commitments at COP28, investments need to increase by 50%, which is not impossible, and this means an annual investment of $2.5 trillion,” Birol said.

According to IEA figures, about $2.8 trillion is expected to be invested in energy across the world this year. Over $1.7 trillion of this total is going to clean energy, including renewable power, grids, low-emission fuels and efficiency improvements.

The remainder, slightly over $1 trillion, is going toward unabated fossil fuel supply and power, of which around 15% is for coal and the rest for oil and gas, the IEA estimates.​​​​​​​