Trudeau’s successor: Who will lead Canada’s Liberals next?

By Barry Ellsworth

TRENTON, Canada (AA) – Canada’s Liberal Party is preparing to elect a new leader this Sunday, who will not only take charge of the party but also assume the role of prime minister, tasked with navigating the country through a period of political and economic uncertainty.

For months, polls painted a bleak picture for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his government, revealing that the once-popular leader, who steered the Liberals to victory in three elections since 2015, had become a major liability after a spate of scandals and policy decisions that drew public ire.

Survey after survey showed the Liberals were not even within hailing distance of the rival Conservative Party, with Trudeau’s personal unpopularity weighing heavily on their prospects.

What began as quiet murmurs among Liberal lawmakers in October soon grew into a full-blown call for change. By early January, the pressure on Trudeau to step down had reached its peak, with most of the party’s 153 MPs privately acknowledging that their chances in the next election were slim as long as he remained at the helm.

A series of opinion polls confirmed the dire situation. An Angus Reid survey found the Liberals scraping rock bottom at 16% support, while a Jan. 9 Abacus poll put the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, at 47%.

If an election had been held at that moment, nearly half of Canadian voters would have chosen the Conservatives, handing them a decisive victory.

Under Canadian electoral rules, a federal election must be held at least every four years, and the next general vote would have to be called for this fall.

With poll numbers plummeting and a growing revolt within his party, Trudeau had little choice but to act, and he announced his resignation at a press conference on Jan. 6.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” he said.

“I intend to resign as party leader, as prime minister, after the party selects its next leader through a robust nationwide competitive process.”

- Reckoning and resurgence

Trudeau’s decision to step down was a moment of reckoning for the Liberals. The party had dominated Canadian politics for a decade, but the public’s growing fatigue with Trudeau had become undeniable.

His departure immediately led to an improvement in the party’s standing in the polls.

“A series of new polls suggest the Liberals have closed the gap with the Conservatives,” said an Angus Reid poll released on Feb. 27.

“The Poll Tracker now puts the margin between the two parties in single digits for the first time since September 2023.”

The latest numbers showed the Conservatives at 40.2% and the Liberals at 30.8% – while the gap remained significant, it was evident that Trudeau was the anchor dragging down the Liberals.

With the New Democratic Party (NDP), which had been propping up Trudeau’s minority government, signaling its intention to withdraw support, many felt that a snap election could take place as early as the spring or summer.

Ken Manderville, chairman of the Bay of Quinte Federal Liberal Association, emphasized the high stakes of the upcoming election, particularly in light of the shifting political landscape in the neighboring US under President Donald Trump’s second administration.

“Canadians are recognizing that the next election is the most critical one since World War II and are wanting to choose a government that will, first and foremost, strengthen Canada and show a strong response to the American threat,” he told Anadolu.

He pointed out that the Liberals have the advantage in that their government “dealt with Trump before and successfully negotiated the Canada-US-Mexico trade agreement.”

On the other hand, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s “main appeal to voters is that he is not Justin Trudeau,” he added.

“The concern is that Poilievre has a significant number of voters in his base who are supportive of many of Trump’s actions, and that the Conservatives will shape Canadian domestic and foreign policy based on those supporters,” Manderville said.

- Who could replace Trudeau?

A key issue dominating the leadership contest is who can best handle the unpredictable Trump, his tariff moves, and his repeated suggestions that Canada should become the 51st state of the US.

The field of candidates has narrowed down to the following four contenders:

- Frank Baylis

A former MP for Pierrefonds-Dollard in Montreal from 2015 to 2019, Baylis wasted no time in declaring his candidacy, announcing his bid within hours of Trudeau’s resignation.

He co-led a medical technology company before and after his time in Parliament. During a four-candidate debate on Feb. 25, he was the only contender to argue that Canada should align with Mexico to counter the aggressive economic policies of the US under Trump.

- Chrystia Freeland

A former journalist, Freeland has served in Parliament since 2013, representing a Toronto district.

She has held key roles in Trudeau’s government, including finance minister and deputy prime minister, and was part of the team that negotiated the Canada-US-Mexico trade deal.

However, her close ties to Trudeau may work against her, as many Liberal members seek a fresh face to lead them.

- Mark Carney

Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, was courted by Trudeau to replace Freeland as the finance minister. That overture led to Freeland, a longtime Trudeau ally, to resign in protest.

Though Carney lacks political experience, he emerged as the frontrunner in a recent Leger poll, largely because he is untainted by association with the Trudeau government.

- Karina Gould

Serving as the MP for Burlington since 2015, Gould has held multiple Cabinet positions, including minister of international development and minister of families, children, and social development.

She also served as the leader of the Liberals in the House of Commons from July 2023 to late January 2025.

Gould, the youngest candidate in the race, has said Canadians want a “fresh” leader with “new energy.” However, observers have pointed out that she lacks the high-profile experience of some of her competitors.