Trump’s move in Venezuelan could cause domino effect

By Santiago Serna Duque

BOGOTA, Colombia (AA) - U.S. President Donald Trump announced his government would recognize opposition leader Juan Guaido as the new president of Venezuela.

The decision came after Trump met with various Republicans, including Florida Governor Rick Scott and Senator Marco Rubio, also from Florida.

The U.S’s backing of the self-proclaimed interim president, who invoked articles 333 and 350 of the Constitution, comes as the country is rocked by protests in favor and against President Nicolas Maduro’s government, considered by a great sector of the international community as a de facto ruler.

During an interview with Anadolu Agency (AA), Javier Garay (JG), a Colombian international politics professor, spoke about some of the ramifications Trump’s support for Guaido could encompass.

AA: What is the meaning of Trump’s backing of Guaido as president of Venezuela?

JG: There are two meanings with different degrees of importance for such a move. On the one hand, it is necessary and completely normal in a state system for there to be an external recognition of Guaido’s legitimacy.

The U.S’s backing helped the opposition’s objective of obtaining a wider array of recognitions in order to show a parallel government to the existing one, which is dictatorial in nature.

On the other hand, we are not talking about just any country on Earth. This is the United States, the world’s biggest superpower, and, in that context, we have to recognize that this has a great impact, at least in perception of strength, for the self-proclaimed president.

However, this move could be affected by the reactions of other world powers such as Russia and China, countries that have expressed their backing of Maduro.

AA: Did Trump’s announcement spur recognition of Guaido by other countries?

JG: The U.S. is the world’s superpower. Something very different happens when Brazil, notwithstanding its importance, announces its recognition of Juan Guaido as interim president.

Whatever the Trump administration does, it will motivate other nations to follow suit. In fact, Colombia, Paraguay, Chile and Canada already expressed their recognition of Guaido. This could be some sort of domino effect.

AA: Is this the end of a potential diplomatic approach between Trump and Maduro?

JG: This is the end for whatever little interaction there was between both governments. What will happen is that a process of ignoring and putting pressure on Maduro will be triggered.

It will be similar to what happened in Colombia during the 1990s, when Colombian President Ernesto Samper became the victim of a containment campaign spearheaded by the [Bill] Clinton administration.

AA: Guaido offered amnesty to all military personnel that decide to desert. With this proposal, along with the U.S’s backing, will the members of the armed forces betray Maduro?

JG: That is uncertain and has nothing to do with political ideology. The [high ranking] soldiers that support the regime are not there because they are afraid of what could happen in case of a change of government. They command of the armed forces because they have interests in an economic model that is very close to a criminal enterprise.

It has also to do with the benefits that emanate from their status in Venezuelan society. One cannot forget that Maduro’s way of consolidating his government during the past few years was by facilitating most of the ministerial portfolios to the members of the military.

Due to this, said amnesty will not be effective unless they perceive a possibility of a military intervention from the U.S.

AA: In that sense, with Guaido as its main ally in Venezuela, will the U.S finally seek a military option?

JG: I would not bet on that. First, due to fiscal reasons and secondly, due to operational difficulties, logistics and due to all the international compromises that the U.S. already has on its watch.