Turkish Central Bank revises inflation forecasts for 2023, 2024

By Tuba Ongun

Türkiye's Central Bank on Thursday revised its year-end inflation forecast upwards for 2023 and 2024 while cutting it for 2025.

The annual consumer inflation is foreseen to come in at 65% this year, up from 58% the previous forecast, Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan told a meeting held to release the bank’s fourth quarterly inflation report this year.

The governor said inflation rate will fluctuate between 62% and 68% through to the end of 2023.

This revision was mainly led by higher food and energy import prices this year, she stressed.

The end-2024 forecast was hiked to 36%, up 3 percentage points from the previous projection, Erkan noted.

On the other hand, year-end inflation forecast for 2025 was cut to 14% from 15%.

According to latest data from TurkStat, Türkiye's annual inflation rate rose for the third consecutive month to 61.53% in September, the highest level this year.

This hike was led by "simultaneous large shocks" such as surge in fuel prices, hike in currency basket and tax adjustments to meet the February 6 earthquakes-driven financial needs.

"We are determined to establish disinflation in the second half of next year," Erkan underlined.

She also stressed that the Turkish Central Bank's gross international assets has risen $28 billion compared to the end of May to surpass $126 billion as of Oct 20., thanks to the new economy administration's steps.