UK retail sales down in November as Black Friday fails to shore up sector

By Aysu Bicer

LONDON (AA) - Retail sales in the UK went down 0.4% month-on-month in November as the broader cost of living crisis continues to limit consumer purchasing power, official data by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed.

The figure posted an increase of 0.9% in October, thanks to the positive impact of the additional bank holiday in September for the state funeral after the death of Queen Elizabeth II.

Sales volumes of non-store retailing, predominantly from online retailers, diminished by 2.8% in November, maintaining a downward trend since early 2021, though the figures were still 18.2% higher than their pre-pandemic levels in February 2020.

"Retail sales fell overall in November, driven by a notable drop for online retailers, with Black Friday offers failing to provide their usual lift in this sector," said Darren Morgan, the ONS director on economic statistics.

"However, department stores and household goods shops did report increased sales with these retailers telling us a longer period of Black Friday discounting helped boost sales," he added.

Meanwhile, automotive fuel sales volumes fell by 1.7% in November, following a rise of 3.2% in October, while non-food stores' sales volumes were down by 0.6%.

Food store sales volumes saw a limited rise of 0.9%, with "anecdotal evidence from retailers suggesting that customers stocked up early for Christmas," according to Morgan.

On the other hand, retail sales volumes fell by 6.2% in the three months to November compared the same period a year earlier.

The Bank of England said the country was "expected to be in recession for a prolonged period and CPI (consumer) inflation would remain elevated at over 10% in the near term."

It predicted that the economy had entered a recession in the third quarter and that the downturn would last until mid-2024.

The bank also forecast GDP being down in 2023 and into the first half of 2024 "as high energy prices and materially tighter financial conditions weigh on spending."