‘Unity dead and buried’: What next as key Sahel states ditch West Africa bloc?

By Hassan Isilow

JOHANNESBURG (AA) – When the military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger unveiled their new confederation treaty last week, the common theme in their statements was greater integration between their countries – all states that have slowly but surely been drifting away from traditional regional and Western allies.

Their July 6 summit in Niamey marked the first joint meeting of the three leaders – Burkina Faso’s Capt. Ibrahim Traore, Niger’s Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani and Mali’s Col. Assimi Goita – since they took power in the West African nations in a series of military coups.

It formalized their exit from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the regional bloc that imposed sanctions on them after the coups in Mali in 2020, Burkina Faso in 2022, and Niger in 2023.

They also bolstered the Alliance of Sahel States defense pact they signed last year that, among other things, obliges all three to help each other if any one of them comes under attack.

“This summit marks a decisive step for the future of our common space. Together, we will consolidate the foundations of our true independence, a guarantee of true peace and sustainable development through the creation of the ‘Alliance of Sahel States’ Confederation,” Traore said in a statement posted on X.

For political observers, their split from ECOWAS comes with many potential ramifications, ranging from economics to security.

Buchanan Ismael, a politics professor at the University of Rwanda, believes it “may increase the risk of insecurity” in an already volatile region infested with militant groups.

ECOWAS had the combined military power of its members to fight militants in the Sahel, but now these three countries will be doing that on their own, he said.

However, according to Ahmed Jazbhay, another political analyst who has been closely following the issue, it could work the other way around and lead to a more concerted anti-militant campaign by Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.

“The withdrawal of these three states from ECOWAS doesn’t necessarily have to result in instability. In fact, the opposite could occur,” he told Anadolu.

Jazbhay, though, warned that foreign influence will prove to be a key factor, particularly because these Sahel states have confronted and pushed out colonial power France and the US.

Both these nations “are known to create instability even after they have withdrawn from any area,” he said.

“So, it is very likely that instability will carry on, and this will be … foreign-imposed instability from the US and France,” he warned.

- Economic risks for all

Ismael stressed that the economic impact could be immense for Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as the wider West Africa region.

One of the main areas would be trade and free movement of people, he explained.

“As sort of revenge … the remaining countries may start imposing taxes or requesting visas for people from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger,” he said.

“It is not going to be easy for these three countries to just leave ECOWAS.”

Jazbhay, on the other hand, pointed out that the withdrawal of the three countries “significantly weakens the economic bloc.”

“ECOWAS has not performed well when it comes to achieving regional integration, promoting intra-African trade in West Africa, as well as ensuring security,” said Jazbhay, a professor of politics at the University of South Africa.

“So, this justifies the feeling of many in West Africa, especially ordinary citizens but even intellectuals.”

While pushing out France and the US, the three countries have “obviously increasingly pursued security and economic ties with Russia,” he said.

However, he said the outcome of this “Look East policy” remains unclear, emphasizing that no one should view it “as a silver bullet for stability, economic prosperity, stemming the tide of violence, and so on.”

- Is there a way back?

ECOWAS is still aiming to bring Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso back into its fold.

Just a day after the Niamey summit, ECOWAS leaders met in the Nigerian capital Abuja and appointed Senegal’s President Bassirou Faye as a special mediator to persuade the three countries to rescind their decision.

When it comes to chances of rapprochement, Ismael said the outlook is bleak, warning that the door has now been opened for further disintegration of ECOWAS.

He said other countries could follow the three Sahel states and “separate themselves from ECOWAS, if not through coups, then with anti-Western populists.”

Jazbhay also does not see a way back “unless these three countries come back into the fold voluntarily, which is unlikely.”

He pointed out that there have already been growing questions “about the standing of ECOWAS, whether it should be revised, reinvented, or done away with.”

“The bloc will try to engage in diplomacy, as it’s been trying to for the last year or so, to lure these three states back into ECOWAS,” he said.

The biggest challenge for the bloc remains “the frustration of many people that despite so-called political independence … ECOWAS not been able to do anything satisfactory” for the region, he stressed.

“I would say that unity in ECOWAS is now officially and definitely dead and buried,” he added.​​​​​​​