UPDATE - Most Libya flood casualties could have been avoided with advance warning systems: UN weather agency

UPDATES WITH MORE DETAILS FROM REPORT, PRESS EVENT; REPLACES 'ADVANCED' WITH 'ADVANCE' IN HEADLINE, THROUGHOUT STORY; CHANGES HEADLINE, DECK

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

GENEVA (AA) – The use of advance warning systems would have lessened the casualties and damage caused by the recent devastating floods in Libya, the UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Thursday.

"If there had been advance warning we could have avoided most of the human casualties in Libya," Petteri Taalas, the WMO's secretary-general, told reporters in Geneva where he presented the United in Science 2023 report.

*** With properly functioning systems, "they could have issued the warnings and the emergency management forces would have been able to carry out the evacuation of the people," he added.

On economic losses from the floods, he said: "Of course, we cannot fully avoid economic losses, but we could have also minimized those losses, having proper services in place."

At least 6,000 people have been killed and thousands of others remain missing due to the weekend floods in eastern Libya, according to officials.

Torrential rains swept several regions, most notably the cities of Derna, Benghazi, Al-Bayda, Al-Marj, and Soussa.

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- Climate change undermines almost every sustainable goal, says report

Halfway through the 2030 agenda, the science is clear that the planet is not on track to meet its climate goals, according to the United in Science report.

Taalas warned that this setback has serious implications for global efforts to eradicate hunger, poverty, and ill health, and improve access to clean water and energy, as well as many other aspects of sustainable development.

According to the report, only 15% of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are on track.

"Groundbreaking scientific and technological advances, such as high-resolution climate modelling, artificial intelligence and nowcasting, can catalyze transformation to achieve the SDGs," Taalas said.

He added: "And achieving Early Warnings for All by 2027 will not only save lives and livelihoods but also help safeguard sustainable development."

He stressed that the urgency for scientific solutions "is now greater than ever."

Between 1970 and 2021, almost 12,000 weather, climate and water-related disasters were reported, resulting in more than 2 million deaths and $4.3 trillion in economic loss, according to the report. Developing economies experienced over 90% of these deaths and 60% of economic losses, which hinder sustainable development.

As the rise in global temperatures has led to an increase in extreme weather conditions, the report showed that the likelihood of the average global near-surface temperature surpassing 1.5C (34.7F) above pre-industrial levels for one or more of the next five years is 66%, and this percentage is rising over time.

Thus far, there has been only minimal advancement in narrowing the emissions gap for 2030, it said, adding that fossil fuel CO2 emissions increased globally by 1% in 2022 compared to 2021, and preliminary estimates from January to June 2023 indicate a further 0.3% rise.

To achieve the Paris Agreement's objectives of limiting warming to below 2C (35.6F) and preferably 1.5C, global greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 30% and 45%, respectively, by 2030, with CO2 emissions approaching net zero by 2050, it underlined.

Taalas underscored that achieving this goal will require large-scale, swift, and systemic changes.

Some changes in the future climate are inevitable and possibly irreversible, however, the report emphasized that each fraction of a degree and every ton of CO2 has a significant impact on slowing down global warming and accomplishing the SDGs.

The annual report combined information and expertise from 18 organizations and it is released before the SDG Summit and Climate Ambition Summit at the UN General Assembly.

- World is not heading towards end

Responding Anadolu's question regarding the panic caused by the increase in number of extreme weather events, Taalas said: "We are not heading towards the end of the world. We are not heading towards the end of mankind, or biosphere.

"But we are talking about different scales of gray for the future," he said. If the world can reach Paris limits, people would see light gray which means the negative impacts of climate will be in liveable with, he added.

"If we fail with climate mitigation, and if we head towards 2.8C, which is at the moment the pathway where we are on, we would see dramatically more negative impacts of climate sense," Taalas said.

"We are not automatically going to be doomed," thanks to the technological means that the world has, he said. "But it's clear that we have to raise our level of ambition."

Regarding the upcoming UN climate change meeting, he said that speeding up the energy transition to use more renewable energy sources and reducing the consumption of fossil fuels will be the priorities in the agenda.

Also, he said, they would pay close attention to adaptation as the impacts of climate change will be felt in the coming decades.

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