UPDATE - Over 1M people in Gaza 'expected to face death, starvation' by mid-July: UN

UPDATES WITH MORE REMARKS BY UN’S FAO, ADDS MORE BACKGROUND

By Merve Berker

Over 1 million people, almost half of the Gazan population, are “expected to face death and starvation by mid-July,” the UN’s Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) said on Wednesday.

In a report called Hunger Hotspots Report: famine looms in Gaza while the risk of starvation persists in Sudan, Haiti, Mali, and South Sudan, the FAO pointed out the dangers that the Israeli-Palestinian crisis has brought.

“The ongoing conflict in Palestine is expected to further aggravate already catastrophic levels of acute hunger, with starvation and death already taking place, alongside the unprecedented death toll, widespread destruction and displacement of nearly the total population of the Gaza Strip – the report warns,” the FAO said.

“In mid-March 2024, famine was projected to occur by the end of May in the two northern governorates of the Gaza Strip, unless hostilities ended, full access was granted to humanitarian agencies, and essential services were restored,” it noted.

The agency warned: “Over one million people – half the population of Gaza – are expected to face death and starvation (IPC Phase 5) by mid-July.”

The report also cautions about the wider regional consequences of the crisis, which could worsen the existing food security challenges in Lebanon and Syria.

Israel has continued its brutal offensive on Gaza since an Oct. 7 Hamas attack despite a UN Security Council resolution demanding an immediate cease-fire.

More than 36,500 Palestinians have since been killed in Gaza, the vast majority being women and children, and nearly 83,000 others injured, according to local health authorities.

Nearly eight months into the Israeli war, vast swathes of Gaza lay in ruins amid a crippling blockade of food, clean water, and medicine.

Israel stands accused of genocide at the International Court of Justice, which in its latest ruling has ordered Tel Aviv to immediately halt its operation in the southern city of Rafah, where over a million Palestinians had sought refuge from the war before it was invaded on May 6.

- 18 hunger ‘hotspots’

The intensity and seriousness of acute food insecurity are expected to rise in “18 hunger ‘Hotspots,’ including Sudan, Haiti, Mali, and South Sudan, the report noted.

The research revealed that many regions designated as hotspots are experiencing escalating hunger crises.

It underscored the concerning trend where multiple crises occurring simultaneously and overlapping are exacerbating acute food insecurity as factors such as conflict, extreme weather events, and economic downturns persistently push vulnerable households into food crises.

“The daunting prospects highlighted in this report should serve as a wake-up call to all of us,” the report quoted the FAO Director-General Qu Dongyu.

“We need to spearhead the shift from responding to crises after they occur to more proactive anticipatory approaches, prevention, and resilience building to help vulnerable communities cope with upcoming shocks,” he said, according to the report.

“Acting ahead of crises can save lives, reduce food shortages and protect livelihoods at a much lower cost than a not timely humanitarian response,” he added.

Cindy McCain, the World Food Programme (WFP) executive director, further stressed the urgency of early action to prevent famine, according to the report.

She highlighted the devastating impact of delayed response, citing the example of Somalia in 2011 while urging immediate, scaled-up implementation of proven solutions to prevent further loss of lives in hunger hotspots, the report said.

- Worsening situation in Sudan, Haiti, Mali

The report pointed out the escalating conflict and displacement in Sudan, urging urgent action as the lean season nears.

Approximately 18 million people face acute food insecurity, including 3.6 million malnourished children, it indicated.

Famine threatens millions in Darfur, Kordofan, Al Jazirah, and Khartoum as the country hosts nearly 10 million internally displaced people and 2 million refugees, adding strain to neighboring countries like South Sudan and Chad.

In South Sudan, the risk of starvation is set to almost double from April to July 2024 due to domestic food shortages, currency depreciation, floods, and conflict, compounded by an influx of returnees and refugees from Sudan.

Sudan fell into violence in April 2023 amid clashes between the army and the Rapid Support Forces paramilitary group.

The conflict has killed nearly 13,900 people and displaced nearly 8.1 million others, including around 6.3 million who have been internally displaced within Sudan, according to figures released by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs in February.

In Haiti, violence from non-state armed groups has disrupted food supplies, leading to the displacement of over 362,000 people and the abandonment of farmland amid an ongoing economic crisis, the research said.

Uncertainty surrounding the deployment of a Multinational Security Support Mission exacerbates the situation, with food insecurity and malnutrition posing significant risks, particularly in areas inaccessible due to gang violence, it stressed.

Haiti has been hit by a wave of violence since February when armed men began burning police stations, and attacking government offices, airports, and raiding the country’s two biggest prisons, releasing more than 4,000 inmates.

Nearly 3,000 people have been killed or injured and almost 100,000 have fled the capital since early March.

“In Mali, already critical and catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity are likely to further increase, driven primarily by an intensification of conflict and compounded by the full withdrawal of the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali,” the FAO stated.

The West African nation has been under military rule for the past four years, having witnessed several coups.

Junta leader Col. Assimi Goita had vowed in June 2022 that the military would restore civilian rule by March 26, 2024, but it was later postponed.

The latest decision on political activities came after more than 80 political parties and civic groups at the end of last month called on the junta to hold presidential elections as soon as possible to end transitional military rule. ​​​​​​​

- Threats of El Niño

The 2023 Hunger Hotspots report highlighted the threat posed by El Niño and its severe impact on millions, including drought in Southern Africa and floods in East Africa.

The current one warns of El Niño conditions expected from August 2024 to February 2025, affecting rainfall and temperatures significantly, with potential flood risks in several hotspots like South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Haiti, Chad, Mali, Nigeria, and Sudan.

“Meanwhile, the Caribbean is bracing for an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season,” the FAO noted.

The agency said: “The report warns that due to the uncertainty of current forecasts, continuous monitoring will be vital.”