US election: How Trump or Harris could reshape regional dynamics in Latin America

By Laura Gamba

BOGOTA, Colombia (AA) — Conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine have dominated the US international agenda in recent years, in many cases sidelining crucial discussions related to Latin America and the Caribbean.

But experts emphasize that the US must maintain a vital strategic relationship with Latin America, especially as global powers like China build up their influence in the region.

Leandro Morgenfeld, a historian at the University of Buenos Aires in Argentina, argues that Latin America is a cornerstone of US geopolitical interests.

"To remain a global power, the US must secure its influence in its own backyard," he told Anadolu, noting China's emergence as a key trading partner that has heightened concerns in Washington.

With the US set to elect its new president on Nov. 5, candidates Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump present contrasting visions for Latin America. Key issues at stake include immigration, trade, political alliances, and security.

- Immigration

Immigration has been at the forefront of the 2024 presidential election. The number of undocumented immigrants in the US is estimated to be about 12 million as thousands more arrive each year.

The allure of the US is still driving migrants, often fleeing poverty, violence, and political instability in their home countries, to cross the Darien Gap, a treacherous swath of jungle straddling the Colombia-Panama border, where they risk extortion, assault, and even death.

Trump has made immigration a core campaign issue, promising mass deportations of millions of undocumented immigrants.

“​​Trump proposed a toughening of the policy against Latino immigrants, promising the largest mass deportation in history,” says Morgenfeld. “This would greatly complicate the demographic, political and social situation for the countries where migration comes from, including Central American and Caribbean countries. It would also complicate the sending of remittances,” he says.

​​Remittances sent by migrants to their home countries in Latin America are a significant source of income for many families and they contribute to economic stability.

While Trump is known for his harsh rhetoric on migrants, imposing tougher border controls will likely be a focal point regardless of which candidate wins the election. So, living in the US as an undocumented migrant will present numerous challenges, including the constant fear of deportation, limited access to health care, education, and employment opportunities.

- Trade

Besides people, goods from Latin America also make their way across the southern US border.

A major trading partner for many Latin American countries, the US imports a variety of goods, including agricultural products and manufactured goods. The US exports a wide range of products to Latin America, from machinery and technology to consumer goods. Free trade agreements have facilitated trade between the two regions, reducing tariffs and promoting economic integration.

Trump has pledged to drastically increase tariffs on foreign goods entering the US if he is elected president, potentially complicating exports from some Latin American nations to the US.

The former US president's economic policy would have the most significant impact on Mexico due to its heavy reliance on trade with the US. Morgenfeld says that during the looming renegotiation of the USMCA, the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico, and Canada, Trump would try to further tighten the concessions he secured when renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

- Political alliances

Trump and Harris represent starkly different approaches to Latin America, which will significantly influence US relationships in the region depending on ideological leanings.

During his presidency, Trump allied with like-minded leaders, notably branding Brazil's far-right President Jair Bolsonaro a “major non-NATO ally” and suggesting the possibility of full NATO membership for the South American country, despite its ineligibility.

In contrast to 2016, today's Latin America is more left-leaning, with leaders like Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in Brazil, Gustavo Petro in Colombia, Gabriel Boric in Chile, and Claudia Sheinbaum in Mexico more likely to align with Vice President Harris' policies.

A Trump victory could also lead to intensified economic sanctions against Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, while right-wing leaders like Argentina's Javier Milei — who has openly supported Trump — could see increased US backing.

“If Kamala Harris wins, the ultra-right in Latin America would be further weakened, whereas leaders aligned with Trump, such as Milei and (El Salvador's President Nayib) Bukele, would benefit from greater support,” Morgenfeld notes.

The election outcome is thus poised to reshape the balance of political power in the region.

- Greater security, military presence

The run-up to the 2024 election has sparked debate on border security and military involvement in the region. Trump and Harris have differing views on what securing the borders entails and the military's role. Trump has suggested that strikes on Mexican territory are still on the table to combat drug cartels.

On the other hand, President Biden has opted for military expansion in the region, a path Harris is likely to stay on if elected. This expansion is part of a broader strategy to counter China's growing influence in Latin America.

According to Laura Richardson, head of the US Southern Command, China and Russia are considered rivals and enemies of the US in the region.

Richardson is "increasingly having a presence in the countries of the region and in the latest national security strategy, China and Russia were considered rivals and enemies of the United States in Latin America," Morgenfeld noted.

Latin America faces big challenges such as immigration and economic decline, and the US' next president will be decisive in many of these issues.