US election: What to expect from a possible new Trump administration

By Muhammed Enes Calli

ISTANBUL (AA) - Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has the potential to bring unpredictability to US foreign policy, especially compared to his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, according to experts.

Scott Lucas, a foreign policy analyst at the University of Birmingham, said Harris will work with "experienced diplomats" in the US State Department and "reliable" economic specialists in the Treasury.

"With Harris, you know that the adults are in the room," he said, as opposed to Trump, who if he is elected next week, "you don't know if the adults will be in the room."

"You don't know, because he'll appoint loyalists. You don't know if he'll have that type of expertise, especially because in the first term, a lot of that expertise, he eventually fired them or they just quit."

"And he's alienated so many experts, whether it be military experts, diplomatic experts, or economic experts," he added.

With Trump, there are certain fundamentals to consider, Lucas said, adding: “You can flatter his ego and engage in what we call transactional politics, where he feels he can gain something from the interaction.”

"You don't know what the rules of the game are in terms of the way the US system works, because Trump will try to manipulate it or even quash it," he added.

According to Lucas, the primary challenge of Trump's foreign policy lies in its operational style, as he tends to function on a "transactional basis."

"You can't set a subtle foreign policy line because it all depends on who he likes and who he doesn't like.

"There is an unpredictability that comes into what happens with US foreign policy if he's reelected," he said.

- US-China trade relations: America first

When discussing US economic interests abroad, the challenge is that Trump often makes chaotic announcements regarding the economy, Lucas said.

One notable example could be his proposal for a global tariff of 10% to 20% applied not only to China but also to US allies, he added.

He noted that while Trump has mentioned imposing tariffs of 60% to 100% on China, the reality is that such measures may not even reach those levels.

However, the mere possibility of imposing tariffs could significantly impact the US economy and its trade relationships.

"You also are going to have a knock-on effect in that because Trump is threatening to politicize the Federal Reserve. It will affect monetary policy and interest rates."

"And therefore, the projected interest rate cuts of 2025 are no longer a near certainty, and thus it's going to affect the economic outlook," he added.

During Trump's first presidency in 2017-2021, a series of tariffs was enacted on China as part of his "America First" economic policy aimed at reducing the US trade deficit by shifting from multilateral free trade agreements to bilateral trade deals.

In January 2018, Trump imposed tariffs of 30% to 50% on solar panels and washing machines.

By March 2018, he had introduced tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum from most countries, affecting approximately 4.1% of US imports.

This measure was extended in June 2018 to include the EU, Canada and Mexico.

The Trump administration also implemented and escalated tariffs on goods imported from China, resulting in a trade war.

Trump may cut corporate taxes, but he has suggested this would apply only to US companies operating onshore, not those based offshore.

"So it will lead to uncertainty for the US economic interest abroad," warned Lucas.

- Relations with China

The question of Trump's approach to China is "complicated," according to Lucas.

While he frequently threatens tariffs and addresses economic issues, he also expresses admiration for Chinese President Xi Jinping.

"So he could always back off of those threats if he is flattered by the Chinese, which they will try to do if he is reelected.”

- Gaza war

On Israel's ongoing war on Gaza, where it has killed more than 43,000 Palestinians, Lucas said that one certainty is Trump’s unwavering support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

He also noted that Trump believes US President Joe Biden has been too weak in his backing of Netanyahu.

"So if Netanyahu has got full US support – even greater US support than he has right now – he's going to feel empowered to maintain those open-ended wars if he wants to, not just in Gaza, but also in Lebanon."

There is a risk that Trump could adopt a "more aggressive" stance toward Iran, further escalating the risks associated with the open-ended Israeli wars if he is reelected, he said.

"Because you're talking about an open-ended Israeli war, which will have no pushback from a Trump administration. "

During his presidential campaign, Trump has shown support for Israel's bombardment of Gaza, urging the country to “finish up” the war amid dwindling support.

- Relations with Gulf countries, policy toward Iran

Lucas said he believes that Trump's relationship with Gulf countries is likely to revert to its previous transactional nature, similar to what it was during his first term.

"The Saudis will invite him there. The UAE will probably adopt a similar approach. They'll try to win Trump's favor," he said.

"So it's going to be more of a transactional relationship rather than a considered US policy.

"The complication here is that it is far less likely, at least publicly, that the Gulf countries are going to make a move toward normalization with Israel as long as the Gaza and Lebanon wars continue."

During Trump's presidency, a series of joint normalization agreements, known as the Abraham Accords, were signed in 2020 between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain.

The signing ceremony was hosted by Trump at the White House, featuring elaborate staging designed to evoke the signing of historic peace treaties from previous administrations.

The US-Iran dynamic hinges on various factors, particularly what unfolds within Iran, he said, adding that if hardliners gain power, it could lead to a more confrontational stance toward the US.

"It depends on what Iranian-led actors do. I'm not just talking about Hamas and Hezbollah as allies.

"We're talking about the Iranian-led militias in Syria and Iraq, whether they decide to step up pressure on American personnel and bases," he said.

Lucas said the issue is that in any of these scenarios, you cannot predict how Trump will behave, making it more difficult to contain any escalation in the region.

- Russia-Ukraine war

On US aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia, Trump will cut economic and military assistance, Lucas stressed, adding that he is likely to distance Washington from Kyiv, making it reliant on others, including the EU, international institutions, and individual countries like Canada, Australia, and Japan.

"Whether that forces Ukraine to the negotiating table and to concede the 25% of its territory held by the Russians, we'll see.

"But it certainly makes it more difficult for Ukraine to sustain a resistance against that Russian invasion," he said.

In June, Trump criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, calling him "the greatest salesman of all time" for Kyiv's efforts to secure US support in its defense against Russian aggression.

"He just left four days ago with $60 billion, and he gets home and he announces he needs another $60 billion. It never ends," Trump said.

"I will resolve this before taking office as president-elect," he added.