US elections ‘going down to the wire’: Will social media prove decisive?

By Darren Lyn

HOUSTON, United States (AA) — Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are throwing political punches at each other as they stump in key battleground states less than a month before the 2024 US presidential election on Nov. 5.

October has already been a busy month for the United States with two major hurricanes — Helene and Milton — pummeling a large swath of the southeastern US. With those disasters have come Republican-based conspiracy theories that President Joe Biden, Harris, and the Democrats are somehow withholding disaster aid from Republican areas. Trump, himself, made such claims without evidence after Helene battered Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Tennessee two weeks ago.

"It's one of those situations where most people do sort of take the word of elected officials and in this case, Trump, he was the president, and so, he has a great deal of sway over many Republicans, and so they're more inclined to buy into those conspiracy theories," said Jennifer Clark, an associate professor of political science at the University of Houston.

Clark told Anadolu that partisan conspiracy theorists and misinformation campaigns on social media could help sway voters to either Trump, the Republican nominee, or Harris, the Democratic nominee, especially by pushing untruths to their respective political bases.

"The problem with social media is that once the information is out there, if somebody tweets something out, then it spreads like rapid fire. And even if you then can put on a notification or delete the post or correct the record, it's already out there, and most people don't actually then go and find out the real information, or they don't revisit it and see if there's a community note that kind of corrects the misinformation," she said.

Clark referred to the August presidential debate between Trump and Harris in which Trump perpetuated false Republican claims that Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio were "eating dogs ... they're eating cats, they're eating pets of the people who live there."

"It's already out there, and more and more people are spreading it, and it goes viral, and that's what makes it, I think, very challenging in the social media age, is because things can spread so quickly, and people will just share the information, and not even, like, fact check it before they share it, and so then the perception is out there, and perception can be reality in politics," she said.

- The 'Taylor Swift effect'

On the flip side of social media, Clark points out that posts from celebrities can also impact the election, highlighting what has been dubbed the "Taylor Swift effect." The pop music superstar endorsed Harris after the vice presidential debate last month between Republican candidate JD Vance and Democratic opponent Tim Walz.

"I will be casting my vote for Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in the 2024 Presidential Election," Swift posted on Instagram. "I'm voting for @kamalaharris because she fights for the rights and causes I believe need a warrior to champion them."

Clark told Anadolu there is a reason the presidential candidates have a major presence on social media and why they are heavily invested in platforms like Facebook, X, Instagram, and TikTok. It is not only a way for them to get their message out to the public en masse, but it also allows celebrities like Swift, who has 283 million followers on Instagram alone, to motivate their fans to take part in the political process.

"Certainly, with someone like Taylor Swift, she actually could mobilize the youth in particular," said Clark. "And that's the key because we know that oftentimes younger voters, they don't register, they don't turn out at the rates that maybe we would expect them to, and in certain key swing states, if she can get them to register and to actually turn out, then they really could make a big difference in that election."

"Things can just go viral very quickly, and so it matters a great deal," she continued. "It really can affect how people engage in politics and, ultimately, who they support."

- Key issues and swing states

Clark explained that beyond the high-profile superstar entertainers and polarizing conspiracy theories, there are some key issues that voters want to see both candidates address: the economy, abortion, gun control, immigration, and American involvement in international conflicts, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza.

Clark pointed out that the latter issue is a given for Trump and the Republicans because they side with Israel as a US ally, but for Harris and the Democrats, it is a slightly more gray area with the vice president sitting on both sides of the fence.

"For Kamala Harris, I think, it's like threading that needle, essentially," said the professor. "She's reluctant to go full-out critical of (Israeli Prime Minister) Benjamin Netanyahu, but on the other hand, she recognizes that there are differing opinions, and has been critical of some of the actions that Israel has taken.

"And so, I think she's just going to sort of have to play that very carefully, essentially assuaging both sides within her party, because she still has to appeal to the sympathetic side of 42,000, mostly children and women, Palestinians being killed."

This last big push to the finish line is crucial for both candidates, Clark added, underlining that the election is "going down to the wire" once every vote is cast and counted on Nov. 5.

Clark pointed out that the key swing states that will likely determine the election are Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, emphasizing that Trump and Harris need to concentrate on the issues and how they relate to their respective voter bases in those battleground states.

It is not surprising, then, that the most recent polls in those swing states have Trump and Harris in a virtual tie.

Even though Harris leads with 48.5% to Trump's 46% in the overall average of the major presidential polls taken across the United States, when it comes to those key swing states, both candidates are within just a percentage point of each other in the polls, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, the professor told Anadolu that the presidential race is literally a toss-up.

"It's almost like a coin flip," said Clark. "They're the swing voters, the ones that both candidates are really trying to appeal to right now, and that could come down to just days before the election, even who they ultimately support."

October is going to be a crucial month for both Trump and Harris, with their ultimate goal to convince voters to tip the balance in the 2024 US presidential election in each of their favor. The professor said that both candidates need to execute their campaign game plan wisely to convince undecided voters to choose them.

"It's going to come down to a handful of states, and just who has the better ground game in terms of just registering their voters and turning them out," said Clark. "Essentially, there's still a great deal of time left before the election."