US 'pivot away' from Myanmar opens door for China's expanding influence: Special Advisory Council

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

GENEVA (AA) - The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar (SAC-M) on Thursday said the US' apparent disengagement from Myanmar could create an opening for China to expand its influence in the region.

"I don't know if (US President Donald) Trump has a policy for Myanmar yet, but clearly there seems to be a pivot away from Myanmar, which in essence will be surrendering Myanmar to China, and China will step in to build a void," SAC-M founding member Yanghee Lee told a press briefing organized by the Association of Accredited Correspondents at the UN in Geneva.

"China is very interested in Myanmar," Lee said, adding that it has a lot of projects in Myanmar, and that two-thirds of the projects that it is currently running and wants to run are under the control of armed forces.

Asked by Anadolu how they are evaluating such a power shift, Chris Sidoti, also a SAC-M founding member, said that he only measures whether China's influence is positive or negative by the well-being of Myanmar people.

"If China contributes in any way to the continuation of the military's actions, then China's actions are negative, and the Myanmar people will resent China's role. If China supports the aspirations of the Myanmar people for a modern, democratic state, well, then the people in Myanmar will see it as positive and will be appreciative," Sidoti said.

He added: "We see China playing all sides. We see China as potentially playing a very positive role. It can play an extremely positive role, but at the moment, it's hedging its bets."

He also stressed that China "is not happy with Russia's role" in Myanmar, noting that in the early days after the coup attempt in February 2021, Russia was a principal supplier of weapons and military equipment to the Myanmar military junta.

However, he said, Russia's involvement in supplying arms to Myanmar has since diminished, as Moscow has become preoccupied with its own military needs amid the war in Ukraine.

Lee, for her part, also raised concerns about the deteriorating conditions for Rohingya refugees in Cox's Bazar, Bangladesh. She noted that the monthly amount spent per Rohingya refugee has now dropped from $8 to just $6, which is "even below the minimum level."

- ASEAN 'failing its mission to secure peaceful solution'

Marzuki Darusman, one of the SAC-M founding members, noted the challenges faced by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in effectively addressing the conflict.

"ASEAN is failing in its mission to secure a peaceful resolution," Darusman stated, suggesting that the regional bloc needs to initiate a "two-tier platform" to bring together all stakeholders, including the resistance forces, to facilitate dialogue and scaled-up humanitarian efforts.

However, he noted that the association is "still very important for Myanmar" and expected to eventually seal the conflict.

To address the crisis, the members provided several key recommendations for the international community such as maintaining and expanding arms embargoes on the Myanmar military, as well as cutting off their access to fuel supplies, imposing further sanctions on the military-controlled banks and entities -- including removing them from the SWIFT financial system -- supporting the efforts of the International Criminal Court and universal jurisdiction cases to pursue accountability for atrocities.

Other steps should be taken include facilitating a platform or meeting to bring together all relevant stakeholders -- including the National Unity Government and ethnic armed organizations, to discuss the future governance of Myanmar, engaging China and other regional players, such as India and Bangladesh, to encourage a constructive role in finding a political solution, and calling up for humanitarian aid delivery to the displaced populations in Myanmar.

Engaging all plus members of ASEAN, including Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, India, and New Zealand, was also highlighted as crucial to bolstering the international response

On the USAID funding freeze, which would lead to the cut of $1.1 billion in aid throughout the Trump presidency to Myanmar, Lee said that it will hit Myanmar greatly as 3.5 million people have been displaced within the country and 20 million need assistance.