US plan for deterrence through show of strength in Middle East not affecting Iran: Analyst

By Semir Sejfovic

SARAJEVO, Bosnia and Herzegovina (AA) – US military strikes in the Middle East have escalated significantly since a Jan. 28 drone attack killed three American personnel and injured dozens more at Tower 22, a base in in northeastern Jordan, near the Syrian border.

These were the first American military casualties in the region since Israel launched its war on Gaza last October, and drew immediate vows of retaliation from top officials in the US.

That response started soon after, with the US now having launched at least 85 strikes in the Iraq-Syria border area, targeting groups it views as proxies of Iran.

The latest was on Wednesday, when a US drone strike in Iraq’s capital Baghdad killed a senior commander of Kataib Hezbollah, a group part of an umbrella organization of Iranian-backed militias that Washington blames for the Tower 22 attack.

Simultaneously, the US and its allies, particularly the UK, continue strikes on targets linked to Yemen’s Houthi rebels, the second part of Washington’s current two-pronged military engagement in the region.

“These are two distinct missions, but with one common denominator, Iran,” Jon Sweet, a retired US army colonel and intelligence analyst, told Anadolu.

He said the key objective of the ramped up military strikes is “deterrence through a show of strength,” but questioned the efficacy of the strategy, particularly with no direct Iranian targets being hit.

“The US doesn’t want to be involved in a war … Not in the Middle East, not in Europe, not in Asia,” he said.

“What they want to do is deterrence through a show of strength, but right now, that show of strength … that deterrence is not having an effect on Iran.”

He said Iran remains confident in “their ability to continue to leverage their proxies against the US, but also confident that the US lacks the political will to see this through.”

“They understand the concept of forever war. I think Iran’s perspective is that they’ll just keep leveraging proxies and drag this out until eventually America will break,” he said.

He also pointed to the US deployment of two carrier task groups in the Mediterranean in the initial period of Israel’s war on Gaza.

“The message at that time was that it’s a deterrence factor to convince Hezbollah not to enter the war. That was a military show of strength,” he said.

“It’s a military show of strength, but Hezbollah is still firing into the West Bank … Israel is still engaging them because Hezbollah is still there … So it’s a deterrence factor, but it hasn’t completely deterred anything.”

- ‘Plenty opportunities in targets’

Sweet stressed the need for the US response to be reoriented toward direct action against Iran.

Of the 80 to 85 targets of recent American strikes, “not one” has been in Iran, nor were any of the casualties from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), he said.

The US is “sending a message to Iran by targeting the proxies, but it’s not sending a message that says, knock it off, or we will come after you,” he said.

He said the US has “plenty opportunities in targets” and cited various examples.

“The Shaheed drone production facility in Isfahan, that’s a viable target. Those are the drones that hit Tower 22. Those are the drones that are striking targets in Ukraine,” he said.

The nuclear facilities that “are processing uranium to a weapons grade … are viable targets,” he added.

“How about targeting Iran’s ability … economically to process oil and sell oil on an international market, and how about actually targeting senior IRGC officials, whether they’re in Iran or Syria or Yemen?” said Sweet.

The US wants to show strength, but there is still concern over the overall plan, he reiterated.

“I think the Biden administration is struggling to present that plan,” he said.

Another key factor in the current situation is Israel, which stands to gain with greater US involvement in the region, according to Sweet.

“They (Israel) struck targets within Syria, nuclear facilities that they believe Iran was building. They’ve also targeted nuclear facilities in Iran,” he said.

“Concerning Iran and the Houthis in the Red Sea, the prime minister of Israel told the US that he would take care of the problem if they didn’t. It was shortly thereafter that the US with the UK to strike off those targets.”

He stressed that it “certainly benefits Israel for the US to be much more engaged in what they’re doing in the Middle East.”

However, with the US elections inching closer, Sweet said President Joe Biden needs to address growing concern among a “frustrated” American public.

“I think the American public is frustrated. To a certain point, they don’t understand what’s our task, what’s the mission?” he said.