‘Vicious circle’: Is France destined for more political turmoil?

By Necva Tastan Sevinc

ISTANBUL (AA) – A week after France saw its first government toppled in a no-confidence vote in over six decades, the country remains rudderless in dark and uncharted political waters.

Europe’s second-largest economy has no prime minister, with Michel Barnier having resigned in the aftermath of the no-confidence vote, which was triggered by a fierce standoff over his proposed austerity budget.

President Emmanuel Macron has so far failed to appoint a successor, struggling to find someone in a deeply fractured French political landscape, and analysts believe a swift resolution remains unlikely.

As Joseph Downing, an expert on French politics, pointed out, the office of prime minister is not the most popular prospect in France at the moment, having claimed three casualties in less than a year.

The first was Elisabeth Borne, who stepped down this January after less than two years in power, followed by Gabriel Attal’s short stint that ended in September.

Barnier, by far, was the most striking case, lasting just three months in office – a new and unwanted record for French politics.

“It’s not going to be a very popular position because it isn’t likely that anyone that comes in is going to succeed. So, anyone in French politics who wants to have a future will be quite reluctant,” Downing, a senior lecturer at Aston University, told Anadolu.

“It’s kind of possibly a sort of career-ending move, as Michel Barnier has found out.”

While Macron has been holding talks with various party bosses, progress has been limited at best, with the president now reportedly aiming to have a name by Thursday.

A key issue at the moment is that whoever succeeds Barnier would still have to get the 2025 budget – the root cause of the government’s collapse – approved by lawmakers who are staunchly opposed to the austerity measures.

“The real danger is that both the far left and the far right proposed a massive increase in public spending, and especially an increase in welfare spending,” Downing explained.

“The problem is France doesn’t have the money, and France needs a significant austerity budget to deal with its budget deficit … and its massive debt-to-GDP ratio.”

In this year’s second quarter, France’s public debt ballooned to nearly €3.23 trillion (almost $3.4 trillion), amounting to 112% of its gross output, according to official figures.

“France is at about 113% with its debt-to-GDP ratio, so clearly this can’t go on … This means that significant spending cuts need to be made, so I think France is in a really tricky situation,” he said.

- ‘End of the Fifth Republic’

Downing believes the crisis is at a point that could lead to “the end of the Fifth Republic in France as we know it.”

The Fifth Republic was established in 1958 under Charles de Gaulle during the Algerian War of Independence, a period marked by coups and instability.

At the time, the previous Fourth Republic’s parliamentary system was unable to resolve the crisis, spurring the rise of de Gaulle and the shift to a stronger presidency.

While the centralized presidential power structure was designed to bring stability in times of crisis, it may be exacerbating the political deadlock today, said Downing.

“The Fifth Republic really aimed to put power into the hands of the president and away from the Parliament, and we’ve seen … (Macron) really mishandle the results of the legislative elections in July, because the Parliament clearly reflected that voters want something different in terms of prime minister,” he said.

“If this crisis is not resolved – and it’s difficult to see for me how it will be resolved in the short term – we could be seeing the beginning stages of the need for France to seriously rethink how it organizes its political culture and institutions.”

Adding to Downing’s concerns is his expectation that Macron, after bringing in a new premier, would “probably attempt to rule by decree.”

However, he believes any new government is likely to face and lose another no-confidence vote, while Macron will keep ignoring growing calls for him to step down before his term ends in 2027.

“We could really have a kind of vicious circle going on. He’s not going to resign, because that’s not Macron’s style. He is famous for being slightly arrogant in that respect, so he’s not going to go anywhere,” said Downing.

“They can’t have new elections until next year, so, I think you could just basically just see a standoff.”

- ‘Financial bailout territory’

Politics and political deadlocks aside, the current crisis poses a particularly stark threat to France’s financial stability.

The country desperately needs policy overhauls and fiscal tightening, as Downing and other experts have pointed out, but there seems to be no political room to make it happen.

For instance, the austerity measures proposed by Barnier included cuts to welfare programs and public services, but those moves were fiercely opposed by lawmakers across the political spectrum.

“France needs to get a grip on public spending. In fact, it has needed to get a grip on public spending for probably the best part of more than two decades, but the political landscape just won’t let this happen,” said Downing.

“I would love to be able to say that there’s a simple way out of this crisis, but from my perspective, I just don’t see that as being possible.”

In such conditions, Downing sees only one thing in France’s political future: “Just deadlock. More of the same deadlock, political instability, and the lack of being able to actually do anything that helps ... It sounds dramatic, but we could be heading towards a sort of finance bailout territory if France cannot get a grip on this financial crisis.”