'Volatile, unpredictable' Kosovo conflict bodes ill for wider region: Analyst

By Muhammed Enes Calli

ISTANBUL (AA) – Rising tensions between Kosovo and Serbia are fueling concerns over the wider implications for regional stability.

The latest escalation comes in the aftermath of local elections that saw ethnic Albanian mayors elected in northern Kosovo areas where Serb are in majority.

Violent clashes have taken place since last Friday, when the newly elected mayors were due to move into their offices.

Serb protesters gathered outside the buildings to block the mayors from entering, triggering standoffs that escalated into clashes with Serbs on one side and local police and NATO peacekeepers on the other.

Dozens of protesters and peacekeepers have been injured, drawing international condemnation and stoking fears of escalating conflict.

Marko Prelec, a consulting senior analyst on the Balkans for the International Crisis Group, said the situation is “far too volatile and unpredictable.”

“This is the result of tensions that were increasing through the last year,” Prelec told Anadolu.

He said the current escalation is related to the “status of certain majority municipalities in the north of Kosovo, and specifically the attempt by (Kosovo Prime Minister) Albin Kurti to assert greater government authority over those municipalities.”

On the recent elections, he said the Albanian mayors were backed by the Albanian minority and are not “seen as legitimate by anyone else.”

Prelec warned that any major confrontation “would have long-lasting negative effects on relations between Serbs and Albanians, between Serbia and Kosovo, and between Serbia and Albania.”

- ‘Russia not an important factor’

Serbia has ordered its army to be combat ready and advance to the border with Kosovo, saying it is there as a “precautionary measure” in case the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR) fails in its duty to protect ethnic Serbs.

Kosovo was a part of Serbia before it declared independence in 2008. Since then, it has aligned itself with Western nations and has gained recognition of its independence from around 100 countries.

Serbia is supported from Russia and China, who have backed its stance of not recognizing Kosovo’s independence.

"It’s still something that the world is divided over. Kosovo is not a member of the United Nations itself. So from Serbia’s point of view, Kosovo is still part of this country and it is trying to break away,” said Prelec.

“In northern Kosovo, they (Serbians) formed the large majority. And they are also next to Serbia with a kind relatively porous border that Serbians can cross whenever they want. So, it’s a kind of confusing area under the kind of dual sovereignty of two countries, populations.”

On possible future scenarios, Prelec said both sides are unwilling to implement the 2013 agreement signed under the auspices of the EU.

“It’s hard to predict what will happen. They both seem to think that they can get more out of, at least, refusing to compromise,” he said.

About the role of other countries in the conflict, Prelec said Russia is “not an important factor” and will only try to “exploit it for their propaganda purposes.”

Russia cannot intervene in the region, since it is very far from its territory and “the whole region is surrounded by NATO member states,” he said.

“To some extent, Russia had the idea that they could eventually see a negotiated conclusion to the war in Ukraine, that would involve some kind of grand bargain including Kosovo,” said Prelec.

“So they may have been hoping … to trade their agreements to Kosovo’s independence for Western agreements to Russian claims in Ukraine, (but) that’s probably not a realistic hope.”