'West united, determined to give Ukraine victory over Russia'

By Ahmet Gencturk

ATHENS (AA) - As the bloody war in Ukraine increasingly seems like a war of attrition, analysts say the West is united and determined to give Ukraine a victory.

There appears to be transatlantic consensus on doing so. Remarks on the war by European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and EU Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen have been completely in line with those by US officials such as Vice President Kamala Harris, according to Tarik Oguzlu, a senior expert on global politics at Istanbul Aydin University.

Considering the once-strong voices in the EU promoting improved ties with Russia and less dependence on the US, this agreement indicates that there was a sea change in the thinking of European decision-makers, Oguzlu said.

While admitting that differences exist between European nations, with France, Italy, and Germany not as hawkish toward Moscow as the UK, Poland, or the Baltic states, he elaborated that none were in a position to resist either domestic public pressure or the US.

The war has even changed Europe's ideological settings, he said: "The German Greens, for example, known for their anti-war stance, have turned into the most ferocious supporters of Ukraine against Russia."

Oguzlu underlined that Western public opinion was convinced by their politicians that it was not only Ukraine that Russia has attacked, but also the Western way of life and values.

As the war drags on, however, a potential war of attrition would work in favor of Moscow in the medium term, he added, as Russia has already established its ammunition and weapons manufacturing capacity.

"However, the West, thanks to its enormous economic power that can be used to boost its arms output, would (ultimately) be the winner," Oguzlu added.

On Washington's stance towards the war, however, he said it was unclear whether it wanted a "Ukrainian victory or a total Russian defeat, which are not the same thing."

The US and its Western allies surely want Russia to be weakened by this war. This is why they keep boosting military support to Ukraine, which naturally leads to prolonging the war, according to Oguzlu.

- Months ahead to determine scale of war

According to a former Turkish diplomat, Gulru Gezer, no country expected the war to last this long.

"And now, as we enter the second year of the war, there is very little hope for a cease-fire, let alone a peace agreement," she said.

Agreeing with Oguzlu, she highlighted that the West and NATO stood united and more determined to support Ukraine for as long as it takes.

One turning point, Gezer said, can be seen as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Washington last December, after which the US and its European allies agreed to send heavy weaponry including missile systems and tanks to Ukraine.

She warned, however, that Ukrainian forces are firing more ammunition than its allies can currently provide.

As such, it shouldn't come as a surprise that the primary agenda of the NATO defense ministers meeting last week was ways to increase defense industrial capacity and replenish stockpiles, Gezer explained.

The more the West sends heavy weapons to Ukraine, the easier it will be for the Kremlin to tell its own people that Russia is fighting a war not against its Ukrainians but against the West and NATO, she pointed out.

"Moreover, the increasing military support to Ukraine bares the risk of a potential spread of the conflict. Belarus can become a second front for Russia if Moscow deems it necessary. In addition, the instability in Moldova and fear among the ruling elites that Moldova will be next are worrisome. Poland and the Baltic States are also in a vulnerable situation."

Against this backdrop, the weeks and months to come will determine the scale of the war, she reiterated.

"The West wants Ukraine to advance on the battlefield before Russia launches a full-fledged offensive. Yet, this bares the risk of infuriating a Russia that has become increasingly difficult to predict," Gezer said.