What next for Rwanda after President Paul Kagame's landslide election win?

By James Tasamba

KIGALI, Rwanda (AA) – Paul Kagame won a fourth term in office, with more than 99% of the vote in Rwanda's recent presidential elections, according to partial results from the National Electoral Commission.

Kagame, who ran under the banner of the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) in the election on July 15, faced challengers Frank Habineza of the opposition Democratic Green Party of Rwanda and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana.

Both Habineza and Mpayimana congratulated him after collectively receiving less than 1% — 0.53% and 0.32% respectively.

Provisional results are expected this week, with final results on July 27. The electoral authority reported a voter turnout of 98% among the approximately 9.5 million eligible voters.

- Who is Paul Kagame?

Kagame grew up in Uganda as a refugee following the 1959-1962 revolution, which led to the Tutsi group being driven out of Rwanda by the Hutu.

He was a founding member of current Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's rebel army in 1979, where he headed its intelligence wing, helping Museveni seize power in 1986. Kagame received military training in Uganda, Tanzania, and the US.

Rwanda experienced a civil war from 1990 to 1994 due to deep ethnic divisions between the Hutu and Tutsi.

The climax of the war, the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi, killed about 1 million Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

Kagame is credited with leading the Rwandan Patriotic Army (RPA), the armed wing of the RPF, in stopping the 100-day genocide and fostering unity and peace in the aftermath.

Following the genocide, Rwanda's economy was destroyed, and society was torn apart when Kagame's RPF captured power in 1994.

Kagame served as vice president and defense minister before becoming president in 2000. He has since won subsequent elections, including the 2017 election with over 98% of the vote.

This year, Kagame sought reelection following a 2015 constitutional amendment allowing him to run for three more terms and giving him the green light to pursue a seven-year third term in 2017.

However, the amended constitution shortened presidential term limits to five years starting in 2024.

Kagame, 66, claims it is the ruling party and Rwandans who have asked him to stand for another mandate, noting that he could "comfortably go home and rest" at a personal level.

- Policy path

Olivier Mushimire, a commentator, believes Kagame's legitimacy is not solely built on his revolutionary credentials as someone who defeated a genocidal regime, but also on the tremendous progress Rwanda has made since 1994.

He has been praised for positioning Rwanda as one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies, aspiring to achieve middle-income country status by 2035.

The country's dramatic turnaround has earned praise from development partners, including the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), with an average economic growth rate of 7.2% between 2012 and 2022.

At a press conference a day before the elections, Kagame said his priority after the election is to continue progress in areas of security, stability, and socio-economic development.

"Rwandans want more development and it is what I am thinking of providing in the next term. More investment, being able to feed themselves — if we can move faster to deliver that to them, the better," he said.

Thierry Kevin Gatete, a Rwandan political commentator, expects Kagame to finish major projects such as the construction of a new $2-billion international airport south of the capital Kigali.

Gatete also told Anadolu that Kagame could seek to launch an initiative to advance high-tech medical research and treatment programs as part of efforts to guide Rwanda to middle-income status.

On potential policy changes, Gatete said he did not foresee any major shifts.

The election took place amid tensions between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) over accusations that Kigali was supporting M23 rebels fighting in the east of the neighboring country.

Rwanda has persistently denied backing the group.

Gatete believes one of the main issues to address in Kagame’s next term will be reconciliation between the DRC and Rwanda to ease diplomatic tensions through a peaceful resolution of the conflict.